The Palmer Plan · Montgomery, TX 77316

$344,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,934 sqft · SingleFamily · 109 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Cash flow +0.9/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Palmer, a large home featuring a standard first-floor owner's suite and the unique option of a second owner's suite upstairs. The first floor features open living and dining areas. At the top of the stairs, you'll be greeted by a huge loft and three additional bedrooms, two with walk-in closets. An optional second owner's suite includes a more cozy yet ample loft area. In either configuration, a junior en suite bedroom is standard.

Key facts

• Second owner's suite
• Huge loft
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FIRST FLOOR OWNER'S SUITE
• SECOND OWNER'S SUITE
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREAS
• HUGE LOFT
• JUNIOR EN SUITE BEDROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $344,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $693,285.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $345k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-35k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (20.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (30.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (30.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.3% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star El (math 57% / reading 61%, grade B-, #455 of 4,322 statewide, top 11%, 766 students, 16% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools at 24% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2717 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($314k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,494 (30.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.35% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.82%
• DSCR: 0.21
• GRM: 23.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $693,285
• List price: $344,990
• Delta: -50.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8199 Hills Pkwy	1.18mi	4/4.0	3,020 (+3%)	3mo	$765,000	$253	56
18443 Hills Lake Ct	1.01mi	4/3.5	3,049 (+4%)	9mo	$925,000	$303	51
19042 Fm 2854 Rd	0.87mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,067 (+4%)	6mo	$1,490,000	$486	43
18451 Hills Lake Ct	1.00mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,746 (-6%)	3mo	$765,900	$279	43
8206 Hills Pkwy	1.18mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,735 (-7%)	11mo	$630,000	$230	38
18721 Dalton Willis Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0 (-1)	3,140 (+7%)	13mo	$925,000	$295	37
8102 Hills Pkwy	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,588 (+22%)	6mo	$720,000	$201	36
8230 Hills Pkwy	1.23mi	4/2.0	2,203 (-25%)	18mo	$498,800	$226	19
17374 Sunset Ranch Dr	1.39mi	5/4.5 (+1)	3,608 (+23%)	30mo	$1,330,000	$369	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -54.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.56×
• Total profit: $-302,104
• Equity at exit: $103,371

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.70×
• Total profit: $-523,372
• Equity at exit: $59,943

Cash invested: $194,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 23 active
• Median asking: $457,202 ($169/sqft)
• Median days on market: 115 d
• This list price: 17% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +39.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2717
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,415 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,636
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$867 /mo · $10,399/yr
• Insurance: −$289
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-2,883

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,065

Max offer price $276,062

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,404	-5% $-2,644	+0% $-2,883	+5% $-3,123	+10% $-3,362
Rent	-10% $-3,074	-5% $-2,979	+0% $-2,883	+5% $-2,788	+10% $-2,693
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,534	-0.5pp $-2,707	base $-2,883	+0.5pp $-3,063	+1.0pp $-3,246

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $173,321
• Closing costs: $20,799
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $344,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas and electric service availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan home located in Montgomery, TX (The Palmer)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,934

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: The Palmer (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $344,990 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $344,990 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $344,990 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $344,990 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $344,990 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $344,990 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $344,990 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $344,990 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-07-24
   days on market $344,990 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-07-23
    days on market $344,990 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-07-22
    days on market $344,990 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-07-21
    days on market $344,990 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-07-20
    days on market $344,990 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-07-18
    days on market $344,990 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $344,990 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $344,990 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-07-15
    days on market $344,990 Active 85 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $344,990 Active 84 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $344,990 Active 83 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $344,990 Active 82 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $344,990 Active 81 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $344,990 Active 80 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $344,990 Active 79 DOM
24. 2026-07-07
    days on market $344,990 Active 77 DOM
25. 2026-07-06
    days on market $344,990 Active 76 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $344,990 Active 75 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $344,990 Active 74 DOM
28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 73 DOM
29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 72 DOM
30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $344,990 Active 71 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $344,990 Active 70 DOM
32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $344,990 Active 69 DOM
33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $344,990 Active 68 DOM
34. 2026-06-27
    days on market $344,990 Active 67 DOM
35. 2026-06-26
    days on market $344,990 Active 66 DOM
36. 2026-06-24
    days on market $344,990 Active 64 DOM
37. 2026-06-22
    days on market $344,990 Active 62 DOM
38. 2026-06-21
    days on market $344,990 Active 61 DOM
39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $344,990 Active 58 DOM
40. 2026-06-17
    days on market $344,990 Active 57 DOM
41. 2026-06-16
    days on market $344,990 Active 56 DOM
42. 2026-06-15
    days on market $344,990 Active 55 DOM
43. 2026-06-13
    days on market $344,990 Active 53 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $344,990 Active 52 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $344,990 Active 49 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $344,990 Active 48 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $344,990 Active 47 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $344,990 Active 44 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $344,990 Active 43 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $344,990 Active 42 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,979
• − Mortgage interest: −$38,835
• − Property taxes: −$10,399
• − Insurance: −$3,466
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,318
• − Management: −$2,318
• − Depreciation: −$20,168
• Taxable loss: −$48,526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,646
• After-tax cash flow: $-22,954/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $14,670–$44,010 screening

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good curb appeal and is move-in ready. Some updates such as painting and landscaping can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Interior touch-ups — Updating the interior can make the home more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system can attract more renters and reduce maintenance costs. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 59/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lone Star El B- TX #455/4,322 Nat'l #8,048/41,679 Middle Montgomery J H B+ TX #145/1,662 Nat'l #1,667/14,009 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $344,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Natural gas and electric service availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan home located in Montgomery, TX (The Palmer)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,934

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas, electric, and heat pump heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: Plan: The Palmer (new construction plan)