3527 S Ferguson Ave · Springfield, MO 65807

$199,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,337 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1969 0.29 ac lot $149/sqft · 17% below area Est $240k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, livability, and everyday convenience make this well-maintained 3 bedroom home a strong option in south Springfield. The functional layout offers a comfortable flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas, making it easy to live in day to day while still accommodating gatherings and everyday routines. The fenced backyard provides a practical outdoor space for pets, play, or simply unwinding, adding to the home's overall usability. Conveniently located near hospitals, schools, and shopping--and within the desirable Kickapoo school district--this property benefits from strong everyday accessibility in an established area known for consistent demand. A solid fit for a primary residence or a straightforward investment opportunity with lasting appeal.

Key facts

• Functional layout
• Fenced backyard
• 0.29 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED BACKYARD
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• STRONG EVERYDAY ACCESSIBILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-99 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (27.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (27.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horace Mann Elem. (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #739 of 1,115 statewide, top 67%, 398 students, 64% FRL); Carver Middle (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #270 of 391 statewide, top 69%, 695 students, 61% FRL); Kickapoo High (math 39% / reading 66%, grade C-, #89 of 521 statewide, top 17%, 1,881 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 256 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,565 (27.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $240,047
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -17.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3637 S Fort Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+5%)	2mo	$220,000	$157	81
3656 S Westwood Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+2%)	2mo	$245,000	$179	79
1313 W Primrose St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,402 (+5%)	3mo	$260,000	$185	79
3504 S Kansas Ave	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,294 (-3%)	6mo	$219,900	$170	75
1320 Walnut Lawn Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-7%)	1mo	$235,000	$189	75
3231 S Parkhill Ave	0.36mi	3/2.5	1,368 (+2%)	1mo	$250,000	$183	74
842 W Deerfield St	0.26mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	3mo	$210,000	$168	69
3243 S Ferguson Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,183 (-12%)	3mo	$219,900	$186	62
3847 S Broadway Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,442 (+8%)	4mo	$245,000	$170	60
3047 S Ferguson Ave	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,427 (+7%)	3mo	$209,900	$147	59
3135 S Newton Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+9%)	4mo	$249,900	$171	57
3150 S Sagamont Ave #102	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,274 (-5%)	5mo	$199,900	$157	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-39,211
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-44,894
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65807

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 256
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,436 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,283/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $-99

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,561

Max offer price $181,462

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $13	-5% $-43	+0% $-99	+5% $-156	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-156	+0% $-99	+5% $-43	+10% $14
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-49	base $-99	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4035 S Parkcrest Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1682	$1,950	$1.16	25d	1	0.65mi
523 W Swan St Unit 1 Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	992	$1,025	$1.03	25d	1	0.67mi
1326 W Sackett St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1672	$1,695	$1.01	45d	1	0.72mi
923 W Battlefield Rd Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	910	$1,050	$1.15	46d	4	0.76mi
4138 S Parkhill Ct Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	45d	1	0.79mi
3025 S Sagamont Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0–2.0	832	$1,345	$1.62	15d	9	0.79mi
2208 W Chesterfield St Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	45d	5	0.84mi
2828 S Nettleton Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,595	$1.66	15d	5	0.86mi
2367 W Farm Road 164 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	940	$1,095	$1.16	15d	1	0.93mi
312 E Redwood St Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1117	$1,400	$1.25	25d	1	0.94mi
1450 W Lark St Springfield, MO	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,490	$1.60	15d	11	0.97mi
256 E Erie St Unit 256 D Springfield, MO	2.0	2.5	1000	$995	$0.99	15d	1	1.02mi
245 E Erie St Unit 245 C Springfield, MO	2.0	2.5	1100	$995	$0.90	25d	1	1.02mi
2310 W Chesterfield St Springfield, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	930	$1,145	$1.23	15d	4	1.02mi
265 E Erie St Unit 265 C Springfield, MO	2.0	2.5	1100	$995	$0.90	25d	1	1.06mi
3302 S Jefferson Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,595	$1.05	25d	1	1.08mi
2752 S Meadowbrook Ave Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,115	$1.44	15d	1	1.10mi
634 E Walnut Lawn St Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	841	$1,495	$1.78	15d	7	1.23mi
4094 S Eaton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1697	$2,950	$1.74	45d	1	1.24mi
611 W Sunset St Springfield, MO	2.0–3.0	2.0	1104	$1,954	$1.77	15d	5	1.30mi
2935 S Roanoke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,150	$0.80	15d	1	1.31mi
2917 S Roanoke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,700	$1.35	25d	1	1.33mi
625 W Edgewood St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,050	$0.95	45d	1	1.38mi
820 E Montclair St Springfield, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,100	$1.26	45d	1	1.45mi
930 E Primrose St Unit A2 Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,200	$0.96	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-18
   price $199,000 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Location, livability, and everyday convenience make this well-maintained 3 bedroom home a strong option in south Springfield. The functional layout offers a comfortable flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas, making it easy to live in day to day while still accommodating gatherings and everyday routines. The fenced backyard provides a practical outdoor space for pets, play, or simply unwinding, adding to the home's overall usability. Conveniently located near hospitals, schools, and shopping--and within the desirable Kickapoo school district--this property benefits from strong everyday accessibility in an established area known for consistent demand. A solid fit for a primary residence or a straightforward investment opportunity with lasting appeal.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $204,000 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Location, livability, and everyday convenience make this well-maintained 3 bedroom home a strong option in south Springfield. The functional layout offers a comfortable flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas, making it easy to live in day to day while still accommodating gatherings and everyday routines. The fenced backyard provides a practical outdoor space for pets, play, or simply unwinding, adding to the home's overall usability. Conveniently located near hospitals, schools, and shopping--and within the desirable Kickapoo school district--this property benefits from strong everyday accessibility in an established area known for consistent demand. A solid fit for a primary residence or a straightforward investment opportunity with lasting appeal.

3. 2026-05-04
   price $209,000 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Location, livability, and everyday convenience make this well-maintained 3 bedroom home a strong option in south Springfield. The functional layout offers a comfortable flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas, making it easy to live in day to day while still accommodating gatherings and everyday routines. The fenced backyard provides a practical outdoor space for pets, play, or simply unwinding, adding to the home's overall usability. Conveniently located near hospitals, schools, and shopping--and within the desirable Kickapoo school district--this property benefits from strong everyday accessibility in an established area known for consistent demand. A solid fit for a primary residence or a straightforward investment opportunity with lasting appeal.

4. 2026-04-20
   price $214,000 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Location, livability, and everyday convenience make this well-maintained 3 bedroom home a strong option in south Springfield. The functional layout offers a comfortable flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas, making it easy to live in day to day while still accommodating gatherings and everyday routines. The fenced backyard provides a practical outdoor space for pets, play, or simply unwinding, adding to the home's overall usability. Conveniently located near hospitals, schools, and shopping--and within the desirable Kickapoo school district--this property benefits from strong everyday accessibility in an established area known for consistent demand. A solid fit for a primary residence or a straightforward investment opportunity with lasting appeal.

5. 2026-04-11
   listed $219,000 Active 771-char remark

   Show marketing remark (771 chars)

   Location, livability, and everyday convenience make this well-maintained 3 bedroom home a strong option in south Springfield. The functional layout offers a comfortable flow between the living, kitchen, and dining areas, making it easy to live in day to day while still accommodating gatherings and everyday routines. The fenced backyard provides a practical outdoor space for pets, play, or simply unwinding, adding to the home's overall usability. Conveniently located near hospitals, schools, and shopping--and within the desirable Kickapoo school district--this property benefits from strong everyday accessibility in an established area known for consistent demand. A solid fit for a primary residence or a straightforward investment opportunity with lasting appeal.

6. 2022-08-18
   soldstatus
7. 2022-08-15
   soldstatus Closed 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Fantastic Price on this Ready to move in home, South Springfield in Kickapoo school district. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has new laminate floor covering, new carpet, a new tub/shower, fresh paint and 2 living areas! The rock fireplace in the open family room adds to the warmth of this home. The home also features a covered back porch, two car garage and fenced yard.

8. 2022-07-14
   status Pending 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Fantastic Price on this Ready to move in home, South Springfield in Kickapoo school district. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has new laminate floor covering, new carpet, a new tub/shower, fresh paint and 2 living areas! The rock fireplace in the open family room adds to the warmth of this home. The home also features a covered back porch, two car garage and fenced yard.

9. 2022-07-13
   price $174,900 374-char remark

   Show marketing remark (374 chars)

   Fantastic Price on this Ready to move in home, South Springfield in Kickapoo school district. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has new laminate floor covering, new carpet, a new tub/shower, fresh paint and 2 living areas! The rock fireplace in the open family room adds to the warmth of this home. The home also features a covered back porch, two car garage and fenced yard.

10. 2022-07-09
    listed $184,900 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    Fantastic Price on this Ready to move in home, South Springfield in Kickapoo school district. This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home has new laminate floor covering, new carpet, a new tub/shower, fresh paint and 2 living areas! The rock fireplace in the open family room adds to the warmth of this home. The home also features a covered back porch, two car garage and fenced yard.

11. 2013-03-07
    soldstatus
12. 2011-12-09
    soldstatus
13. 2011-04-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,283 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,930 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$647/yr (+$54/mo · 50.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,228
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$1,283
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,378
• − Management: −$1,378
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$4,743
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,138
• After-tax cash flow: $-53/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 56,659
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 55.5% rent · 44.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3420.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -205.97%
• Current HPI: 210.4358
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+7.6% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $204,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $209,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $214,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-11 Listed $219,000 SOMO
• 2022-08-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-15 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2022-07-14 Pending — SOMO
• 2022-07-13 Price Changed $174,900 SOMO
• 2022-07-09 Listed $184,900 SOMO
• 2013-03-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-04-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,283 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.