127 Kirkwood Cir · Warner Robins, GA 31088

$156,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1962 9,147 sqft lot Est $195k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

Key facts

• Built-in cabinetry
• Walk-in closet
• Natural light

Tags

• SPLIT-BEDROOM FLOOR PLAN
• NATURAL LIGHT
• BUILT-IN CABINETRY
• PANTRY-STYLE STORAGE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• UPDATED BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.21 acre

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property; Located in the PINE VALLEY subdivision
• Construction: Brick, vinyl siding, and wood siding exterior; Built above grade finished area
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric range; Range; Refrigerator; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $189 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.9% in Warner Robins — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#227 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Houston County (urban): math 43% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #23 of 174 in GA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Miller Elementary School (math 22% / reading 22%, grade F, #810 of 1,228 statewide, top 69%, 538 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins Middle School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #237 of 470 statewide, top 51%, 813 students, 84% FRL); Warner Robins High School (math 7% / reading 21%, grade F, #322 of 424 statewide, top 76%, 1,816 students, 84% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 46% district-wide (38 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,545 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (336 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $156k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,470 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.20%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Forrester Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,438 (-8%)	5mo	$145,000	$101	78
202 Forest Hill Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+3%)	4mo	$164,000	$103	70
220 Station Way	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+1%)	1mo	$235,000	$149	64
200 Atrium Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,470 (-6%)	2mo	$177,000	$120	58
217 Station Way	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,480 (-5%)	3mo	$225,000	$152	56
122 Driftwood Ter	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,413 (-9%)	8mo	$158,900	$112	53
213 Stratford Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-14%)	0mo	$172,500	$129	50
610 Cornelia Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-14%)	1mo	$209,000	$156	49
215 Forest Hill Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,790 (+15%)	9mo	$170,000	$95	48
105 Marvin Blvd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-13%)	3mo	$150,000	$111	41
207 Atrium Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,759 (+13%)	8mo	$220,000	$125	39
104 Crossing Pl	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,340 (-14%)	4mo	$228,000	$170	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-15,186
• Equity at exit: $23,260

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,571
• Equity at exit: $13,488

Cash invested: $43,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31088

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,455 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$818
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $921/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $189

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,215

Max offer price $156,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,000
• Closing costs: $4,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 S Pleasant Hill Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,150	$0.87	21d	1	0.17mi
605 S Pleasant Hill Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,150	$0.87	43d	1	0.17mi
1311 Alma Ave Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.0	1073	$1,150	$1.07	43d	1	0.41mi
105 Marvin Blvd Warner Robins, GA	4.0	2.0	1352	$1,495	$1.11	43d	1	0.62mi
201 Sherman St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	2000	$1,650	$0.82	13d	1	0.68mi
142 Stoneridge Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.5	1321	$1,450	$1.10	43d	1	0.72mi
210 Southland Station Dr Warner Robins, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1135	$1,413	$1.24	13d	15	0.83mi
305 Sparta St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.0	1198	$1,200	$1.00	43d	1	0.84mi
342 Orchard Way Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,349	$1.14	43d	1	1.07mi
125 Orchard Pass Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,395	$1.20	43d	1	1.08mi
108 Corinth St Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	43d	1	1.10mi
510 Leisure Lake Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	43d	1	1.12mi
510 Leisure Lake Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,650	$1.34	21d	1	1.12mi
125 Briarcliff Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.5	1242	$1,325	$1.07	21d	1	1.12mi
125 Briarcliff Rd Warner Robins, GA	3.0	1.5	1242	$1,325	$1.07	43d	1	1.12mi
218 Tallulah Trl Warner Robins, GA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,200	$1.14	43d	1	1.15mi
101 Raintree Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	2062	$2,250	$1.09	21d	1	1.32mi
121 Highland Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,795	$1.05	21d	1	1.35mi
121 Highland Dr Warner Robins, GA	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,795	$1.05	43d	1	1.35mi
800 Leisure Lake Dr Warner Robins, GA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,365	$1.44	13d	34	1.50mi

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $156,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $156,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,000 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $159,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $159,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $159,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,000 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 15 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 14 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $160,000 Active 13 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    listed $160,000 Active
19. 2025-05-25
    historical $1,395
20. 2025-05-02
    price $1,395
21. 2025-03-29
    listed $1,495
22. 2024-03-09
    historical $1,495
23. 2024-03-02
    price $1,495
24. 2024-02-18
    listed $1,700
25. 2024-02-09
    historical $1,700
26. 2024-01-04
    price $1,700
27. 2023-12-08
    listed $1,800
28. 2023-08-30
    soldstatus $68,500 Sold 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

29. 2023-08-01
    status Under Contract 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

30. 2023-07-07
    price $74,200 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

31. 2023-07-07
    status Back On Market 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

32. 2023-06-16
    historical On Hold 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

33. 2023-05-26
    price $74,600 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

34. 2023-05-08
    price $78,400 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

35. 2023-04-19
    price $88,600 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

36. 2023-04-04
    price $101,600 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

37. 2023-03-20
    price $123,000 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

38. 2023-03-03
    listed $139,920 New 306-char remark

    Show marketing remark (306 chars)

    Investment opportunity available this ranch home built in 1962 offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths and living room with vaulted ceilings. Work and repairs are needed including, flooring, paint, ceiling repairs, needs A/C and roof. Buyer to complete due diligence prior to offer, sold as is no inspection contingency

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$515/yr (+$43/mo · 55.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,456
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,738
• − Property taxes: −$921
• − Insurance: −$780
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,397
• − Management: −$1,397
• − Depreciation: −$4,538
• Taxable loss: −$314
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$75
• After-tax cash flow: $2,348/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston County
• NCES district ID: 1302880
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,823
• Composite: 38.68/100
• National rank: #4144
• State rank: #23 of 174 in GA

Livability — Warner Robins

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #13290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warner Robins, GA
• County: Houston County · 157,321 people
• City population: 92,102
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• Population (ZIP): 58,585
• Household income: $83,082
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1668.0

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 169,502 people
• By 2030: 178,486 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 194,642 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 207,119 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 231,480 · +36.6%
• By 2100: 235,034 · +38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 32% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: R (+11.3) · D 44.0% · R 55.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: -20.2pp · 2024: -11.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.3 2020: R+12.4 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+20.7 2008: R+20.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -135.75%
• Current HPI: 219.8261
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.67%
• Metro: Warner Robins, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+14.4% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $160,000 CGMLS
• 2025-05-25 Rental Removed $1,395 Avail
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $1,395 Avail
• 2025-03-29 Listed for Rent $1,495 Avail
• 2024-03-09 Rental Removed $1,495 Avail
• 2024-03-02 Price Changed $1,495 Avail
• 2024-02-18 Listed for Rent $1,700 Avail
• 2024-02-09 Rental Removed $1,700 Avail
• 2024-01-04 Price Changed $1,700 Avail
• 2023-12-08 Listed for Rent $1,800 Avail
• 2023-08-30 Sold (MLS) $68,500 GAMLS
• 2023-08-01 Pending — GAMLS
• 2023-07-07 Price Changed $74,200 GAMLS
• 2023-07-07 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2023-06-16 Delisted — GAMLS
• 2023-05-26 Price Changed $74,600 GAMLS
• 2023-05-08 Price Changed $78,400 GAMLS
• 2023-04-19 Price Changed $88,600 GAMLS
• 2023-04-04 Price Changed $101,600 GAMLS
• 2023-03-20 Price Changed $123,000 GAMLS
• 2023-03-03 Listed $139,920 GAMLS

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $921 · +66.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.