251 Durington Rd · Buffalo, MO 65622

$144,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Other public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1980 2.90 ac lot $138/sqft · 18% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Appreciation +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Detached shop
• 2.9 acres

Tags

• LOG CABIN
• DETACHED SHOP
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• 2.9 ACRES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $92 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.0% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#181 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dallas County R-I (town): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #278 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,534 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.72%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,461
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: -56.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-16,514
• Equity at exit: $22,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,058
• Equity at exit: $14,652

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65622

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $763/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $92

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $174	-5% $133	+0% $92	+5% $51	+10% $10
Rent	-10% $-6	-5% $43	+0% $92	+5% $141	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $165	-0.5pp $129	base $92	+0.5pp $55	+1.0pp $16

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $144,900 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

3. 2026-04-10
   price $156,500 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

4. 2026-03-11
   price $174,900 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

5. 2026-02-25
   price $189,900 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

6. 2026-01-26
   listed $208,000 Active 139-char remark

   Show marketing remark (139 chars)

   Log cabin 2 story home with four bedrooms, two bathrooms, detached shop. 2.9 acres. the shop is approximately 30 x 30. Covered front porch.

7. 2020-01-06
   soldstatus
8. 2016-01-01
   soldstatus 705-char remark

   Show marketing remark (705 chars)

   If you're looking for that place to be able to spread your wings, but not to much to take care of, then this is it! Setting back off the country road, you will find this picture perfect log home. Boasting 4bd and 2ba- its country living at with space to grow. As you enter the front door you'll find a generous living room with an open floor plan into the kitchen/dining combo. With 1 bedroom and 1 bath down stairs, then upstairs offers 3 more generously sized bedrooms and another full bath. Outside offers a huge yard with room to run and a wet weather creek out front. Your new 30x30 shop/garage has concrete floors, electricity, and a wood stove to take the chill out. All of this for under $100,000!

9. 2015-10-02
   listed $75,000 705-char remark

   Show marketing remark (705 chars)

   If you're looking for that place to be able to spread your wings, but not to much to take care of, then this is it! Setting back off the country road, you will find this picture perfect log home. Boasting 4bd and 2ba- its country living at with space to grow. As you enter the front door you'll find a generous living room with an open floor plan into the kitchen/dining combo. With 1 bedroom and 1 bath down stairs, then upstairs offers 3 more generously sized bedrooms and another full bath. Outside offers a huge yard with room to run and a wet weather creek out front. Your new 30x30 shop/garage has concrete floors, electricity, and a wood stove to take the chill out. All of this for under $100,000!

10. 2011-10-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $763 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,406 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$54/mo · 84.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,824
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$763
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$1,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$328
• After-tax cash flow: $1,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas County R-I
• NCES district ID: 2906120
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,067
• Composite: 24.19/100
• National rank: #7735
• State rank: #278 of 324 in MO

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #181
• US rank: #9481

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,591

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,419 people
• By 2030: 14,668 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 13,045 · -15.4%
• By 2050: 11,341 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 8,096 · -47.5%
• By 2100: 5,656 · -63.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+64.6) · D 17.3% · R 81.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -64.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+64.6 2020: R+64.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.81%
• Current HPI: 256.066
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+93.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — SOMO
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $144,900 SOMO
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $156,500 SOMO
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $174,900 SOMO
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $189,900 SOMO
• 2026-01-26 Listed $208,000 SOMO
• 2020-01-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-01-01 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2015-10-02 Listed $75,000 SOMO
• 2011-10-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $763 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.