21 Whispering Pines Rd · Saratoga Springs, NY 12831

$278,400

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,392 sqft · Townhouse public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 0.29 ac lot Est $322k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready townhome in convenient but quiet location. Gorgeous open floor living space with cathedral ceilings, and wood burning fireplace. Connecting hardwood floor dining room, recently updated kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, glass tile back splash, and stone countertops. Large walk-in closet in master bedroom with connecting full bath. bonus third room used as office perfect for den or playroom. The private backyard with patio area and mature trees. Connect with your REALTOR to set up a viewing! Final offers due at 8/26 5pm.

Key facts

• Glass backsplash
• Open floor plan
• Tree view

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED WINDOWS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GLASS BACKSPLASH
• TREE VIEW

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Has garage (1 car); Total 3 parking spaces; Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Entry on first level
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built with slab basement
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Level, wooded lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedroom on second level; Office on second level
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (second level); One half bathroom (first level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Sliding doors; Family room with wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer/Dryer included; Laundry on main level; Laundry located in bathroom

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $215 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dorothy Nolan Elementary School (math 69% / reading 68%, grade B+, #517 of 2,108 statewide, top 25%, 688 students, 22% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 82% at this address vs 70% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Saratoga Springs City SD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $230k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $252,479 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.31%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,552
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
48 Whispering Pines Rd	0.15mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,392 (0%)	6mo	$227,000	$163	83
58 Castleberry Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,350 (-3%)	0mo	$312,500	$231	62
50 Castleberry Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,431 (+3%)	8mo	$386,000	$270	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-31,452
• Equity at exit: $41,510

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-9,938
• Equity at exit: $24,071

Cash invested: $77,952 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12831

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,525 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,460
• Tax from tax record: −$203 /mo · $2,440/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $215

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,252

Max offer price $278,400

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,600
• Closing costs: $8,352
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Whispering Pines Rd Gansevoort, NY	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,100	$1.50	13d	1	0.07mi
55 Worth Rd Gansevoort, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$2,094	$1.61	23d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 545-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   price $278,400 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $284,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $284,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $284,900 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $284,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   remarks 518-char remark
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $284,900 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $284,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $284,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $284,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 469-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    days on market $284,900 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-06-05
    remarks 439-char remark
16. 2026-06-05
    days on market $284,900 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-06-03
    days on market $284,900 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-06-02
    days on market $284,900 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-06-01
    days on market $284,900 Active 3 DOM
20. 2026-06-01
    remarks 387-char remark
21. 2026-05-31
    days on market $284,900 Active 2 DOM
22. 2026-05-28
    listed $284,900 Active
23. 2023-11-15
    soldstatus $230,000
24. 2023-11-09
    soldstatus $230,000 Closed 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Move-in ready townhome in convenient but quiet location. Gorgeous open floor living space with cathedral ceilings, and wood burning fireplace. Connecting hardwood floor dining room, recently updated kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, glass tile back splash, and stone countertops. Large walk-in closet in master bedroom with connecting full bath. bonus third room used as office perfect for den or playroom. The private backyard with patio area and mature trees. Connect with your REALTOR to set up a viewing! Final offers due at 8/26 5pm.

25. 2023-08-28
    status Pending 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Move-in ready townhome in convenient but quiet location. Gorgeous open floor living space with cathedral ceilings, and wood burning fireplace. Connecting hardwood floor dining room, recently updated kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, glass tile back splash, and stone countertops. Large walk-in closet in master bedroom with connecting full bath. bonus third room used as office perfect for den or playroom. The private backyard with patio area and mature trees. Connect with your REALTOR to set up a viewing! Final offers due at 8/26 5pm.

26. 2023-08-18
    listed $235,000 Active 553-char remark

    Show marketing remark (553 chars)

    Move-in ready townhome in convenient but quiet location. Gorgeous open floor living space with cathedral ceilings, and wood burning fireplace. Connecting hardwood floor dining room, recently updated kitchen includes all stainless steel appliances, glass tile back splash, and stone countertops. Large walk-in closet in master bedroom with connecting full bath. bonus third room used as office perfect for den or playroom. The private backyard with patio area and mature trees. Connect with your REALTOR to set up a viewing! Final offers due at 8/26 5pm.

27. 2017-12-20
    soldstatus $176,700
28. 2014-10-09
    soldstatus $137,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,440 · $203/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,573 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,132/yr (+$94/mo · 46.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,297
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,595
• − Property taxes: −$2,440
• − Insurance: −$1,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,424
• − Management: −$2,424
• − Depreciation: −$8,099
• Taxable loss: −$2,076
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$498
• After-tax cash flow: $3,082/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,025
• Household income: $100,024
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.79%
• Current HPI: 351.6972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $284,900 Global MLS
• 2023-11-15 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-09 Sold (MLS) $230,000 Global MLS
• 2023-08-28 Pending — Global MLS
• 2023-08-18 Listed $235,000 Global MLS
• 2017-12-20 Sold (Public Records) $176,700 Public Records
• 2014-10-09 Sold (Public Records) $137,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,440 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.