423 Main St · Dorchester, NJ 08316

$85,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,328 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 449 Days on market

Built 1873 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home located on . 28 acres. This 2-story home offers a living room, dining room, kitchen and half bath / laundry room. Off the back is a covered deck and a nice sized back yard with a shed. Home also has a walk-up attic. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

Key facts

• Spacious back porch
• Classic layout
• Backyard space

Tags

• BACKYARD SPACE
• SPACIOUS BACK PORCH
• CLASSIC LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Well water; On-site septic
• Home design: Detached structure; Fee simple ownership; Year built: estimated
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Other foundation; Above-grade finished living area
• Exterior features: No tidal water on the property

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level; 2 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Electric baseboard heating; Hot water system (other)
• Interior features: Estimated living area; Basement with outside entrance (partial)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $849 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Maurice River Township School District (rural): math 14% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #376 of 472 in NJ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 216 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Cumberland County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 449 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $130k (60%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $85k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1873 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 449 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1873 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.82%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $262,944
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
105 Church St	0.13mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-5%)	13mo	$250,000	$198	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.70×
• Total profit: $64,378
• Equity at exit: $38,220

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.45×
• Total profit: $153,438
• Equity at exit: $58,901

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08316

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,850 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$131 /mo · $1,572/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $849

Break-even live

Break-even rent $775

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10 Broad St Unit 2 Millville, NJ	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 449 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 448 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   price $85,000 Active 447 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 447 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 446 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 445 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 443 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 442 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 440 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 439 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 438 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 437 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 434 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 432 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 431 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 430 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 429 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    price $95,000
19. 2026-04-10
    price $105,000
20. 2026-03-16
    price $115,000
21. 2026-01-12
    price $119,000
22. 2025-12-08
    price $129,000
23. 2025-11-11
    price $135,000
24. 2025-10-02
    price $145,000
25. 2025-09-10
    price $155,000
26. 2025-09-10
    status Active
27. 2025-09-10
    status Pending
28. 2025-08-07
    price $165,000
29. 2025-07-14
    price $175,000
30. 2025-06-16
    price $185,000
31. 2025-05-19
    price $195,000
32. 2025-04-18
    price $205,000
33. 2025-03-27
    listed $215,000 Active
34. 2024-05-31
    historical
35. 2023-12-07
    price $210,000
36. 2023-11-06
    listed $225,000 Active
37. 2022-02-24
    soldstatus $45,000 Closed 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home located on . 28 acres. This 2-story home offers a living room, dining room, kitchen and half bath / laundry room. Off the back is a covered deck and a nice sized back yard with a shed. Home also has a walk-up attic. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

38. 2022-02-02
    status Pending 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home located on . 28 acres. This 2-story home offers a living room, dining room, kitchen and half bath / laundry room. Off the back is a covered deck and a nice sized back yard with a shed. Home also has a walk-up attic. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

39. 2022-01-12
    price $49,900 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home located on . 28 acres. This 2-story home offers a living room, dining room, kitchen and half bath / laundry room. Off the back is a covered deck and a nice sized back yard with a shed. Home also has a walk-up attic. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

40. 2021-12-08
    price $54,000 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home located on . 28 acres. This 2-story home offers a living room, dining room, kitchen and half bath / laundry room. Off the back is a covered deck and a nice sized back yard with a shed. Home also has a walk-up attic. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

41. 2021-11-10
    listed $59,900 Active 294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (294 chars)

    Come see this 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath home located on . 28 acres. This 2-story home offers a living room, dining room, kitchen and half bath / laundry room. Off the back is a covered deck and a nice sized back yard with a shed. Home also has a walk-up attic. This is a Fannie Mae HomePath Property.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,572 · $131/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,844 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$272/yr (+$23/mo · 17.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,572
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,776
• − Management: −$1,776
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $9,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,260
• After-tax cash flow: $7,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maurice River Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409780
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $64,846
• Composite: 23.8/100
• National rank: #7810
• State rank: #376 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Dorchester

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dorchester, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 78

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,743 people
• By 2030: 150,373 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 146,881 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 142,653 · -6.6%
• By 2075: 129,468 · -15.2%
• By 2100: 107,456 · -29.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.6% · R 51.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: -3.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.8 2020: D+6.0 2016: D+5.3 2012: D+23.1 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+58.6% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $95,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $105,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-12 Price Changed $119,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $129,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-02 Price Changed $145,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-14 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-16 Price Changed $185,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $195,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $205,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-03-27 Listed $215,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-05-31 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-12-07 Price Changed $210,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-11-06 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-24 Sold (MLS) $45,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-02-02 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-01-12 Price Changed $49,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-12-08 Price Changed $54,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-11-10 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,572 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.