32851 Lake Dr · Porter, MI 49065

$199,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily · 5 Days on market

Built 1964 10,185 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Deeded Access - Gravel Lake. This affordable getaway offers the opportunity to enjoy lake life without the lakefront price tag. Just a short walk away is a shared park with approximately 60 feet of sandy frontage on all-sports Gravel Lake--known for its clear water, boating, fishing, swimming, and year-round recreation. The home currently offers one bedroom, with potential for a second bedroom once finishing touches are completed. One room is ready for drywall, trim, and flooring, while the bathroom needs a tub surround and/or tile to complete the renovation. There is a large shed with electric. It could be a weekend retreat, year-round residence, or investment opportunity. This property offers plenty of upside and a chance to make it your own while enjoying one of Southwest Michigan's most sought-after lakes. Buyer to take on the remaining projects.

Key facts

• Shared park
• Deeded access
• Sandy frontage

Tags

• DEEDED ACCESS
• SHARED PARK
• SANDY FRONTAGE
• GRAVEL LAKE
• LARGE SHED
• YEAR ROUND RECREATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Natural gas connected
• Home design: Ranch-style single family residence; Facing / entry level not specified
• Construction: Built in 1964; Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab basement
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Shed(s); Unimproved road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; 5 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($580/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marcellus Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #332 of 540 in MI (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 165 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Van Buren County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 38y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $175,662 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-29,163
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,411
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49065

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,555/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,695

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $199,000 Pending 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   remarks 699-char remark

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   Deeded Access - Gravel Lake. This affordable getaway offers the opportunity to enjoy lake life without the lakefront price tag. Just a short walk away is a shared park with approximately 60 feet of sandy frontage on all-sports Gravel Lake--known for its clear water, boating, fishing, swimming, and year-round recreation. The home currently offers one bedroom, with potential for a second bedroom once finishing touches are completed. One room is ready for drywall, trim, and flooring, while the bathroom needs a tub surround and/or tile to complete the renovation. There is a large shed with electric. It could be a weekend retreat, year-round residence, or investment opportunity. This property offers plenty of upside and a chance to make it your own while enjoying one of Southwest Michigan's most sought-after lakes. Buyer to take on the remaining projects.

6. 2026-06-12
   listed $199,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (862 chars)

   Deeded Access - Gravel Lake. This affordable getaway offers the opportunity to enjoy lake life without the lakefront price tag. Just a short walk away is a shared park with approximately 60 feet of sandy frontage on all-sports Gravel Lake--known for its clear water, boating, fishing, swimming, and year-round recreation. The home currently offers one bedroom, with potential for a second bedroom once finishing touches are completed. One room is ready for drywall, trim, and flooring, while the bathroom needs a tub surround and/or tile to complete the renovation. There is a large shed with electric. It could be a weekend retreat, year-round residence, or investment opportunity. This property offers plenty of upside and a chance to make it your own while enjoying one of Southwest Michigan's most sought-after lakes. Buyer to take on the remaining projects.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,555 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,810 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$255/yr (+$21/mo · 10.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,079
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$2,555
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,779
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$667
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marcellus Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 27.33/100
• National rank: #6988
• State rank: #332 of 540 in MI

Livability — Porter

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,283

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,479 people
• By 2030: 68,693 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 62,093 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 55,232 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 40,786 · -42.9%
• By 2100: 27,785 · -61.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Iranian 6% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: R (+15.1) · D 41.7% · R 56.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.9pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: -15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.1 2020: R+12.3 2016: R+13.9 2012: D+0.5 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -162.97%
• Current HPI: 165.0761
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+613.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $199,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-12 Listed $199,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-06-12 Listed $199,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2015-01-24 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 1989-02-18 Listed $27,900 REALCOMP
• 1989-02-18 Listed $27,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 1988-08-05 Listed $27,900 REALCOMP
• 1988-08-05 Listed $27,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,555 · +28.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.