34 Helmsman Ct · Essex, MD 21221

$250,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,560 sqft · Townhouse public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1977 1,400 sqft lot Est $265k · 6% under $117/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bedroom, One Full and Two Half Baths Inside of Group Townhouse with a waterview from the rear deck Roof replaced 5+/- years ago

Key facts

• $117 HOA
• Built 1977
• Listed 10 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee approximately $1,400 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electrical service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership; Property in average condition; Suburban location
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Block foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Double-hung, vinyl-clad windows; Building not winterized
• Exterior features: Deck(s) and patio(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Laminate plank flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); Two half bathrooms (one on main level, one on lower level)
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling systems; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Drywall walls and ceilings; Living room, dining room, kitchen and recreation room; Has one wood-burning fireplace; Basement present; approximately 75% finished
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-307/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Essex — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#60 in MD, #2,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $250k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 47% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $225,336 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $265,200
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
548 Hopkins Landing Dr #548	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,548 (-1%)	2mo	$290,000	$187	79
1654 Poles Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-1%)	8mo	$181,000	$118	72
556 Hopkins Landing Dr #556	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,547 (-1%)	10mo	$330,000	$213	72
15 Ebbing	0.11mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,440 (-8%)	8mo	$277,500	$193	67
36 Bladen Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	8mo	$248,000	$164	64
608 Hopkins Landing Dr #608	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+6%)	7mo	$280,000	$169	63
774 Seawall	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,521 (-2%)	1mo	$258,000	$170	62
618 Hopkins Landing Dr #618	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (+6%)	10mo	$280,000	$169	62
2162 Vailthorn	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-2%)	2mo	$234,000	$152	60
267 Southeastern Ter	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-3%)	11mo	$235,000	$155	57
783 Seawall Rd	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,396 (-10%)	2mo	$245,000	$176	46
712 Seawall Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,396 (-10%)	8mo	$247,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-46,327
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-58,968
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21221

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,253 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$274 /mo · $3,282/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$117
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $245,487

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28 Ebbing Ct Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1464	$2,195	$1.50	11d	1	0.09mi
146 Marine Oaks Dr Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1516	$2,700	$1.78	24d	1	0.09mi
439 Hopkins Landing Dr Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1485	$1,795	$1.21	11d	1	0.22mi
1710 Huber Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1848	$2,900	$1.57	44d	1	0.36mi
1402 Nicolay Way Unit 1 Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1432	$1,925	$1.34	5d	1	0.55mi
1402 Nicolay Way Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,925	$1.34	3d	1	0.55mi
54 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.5	1260	$1,950	$1.55	44d	1	0.61mi
706 Seawall Rd Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1114	$1,900	$1.71	5d	1	0.64mi
2128 Cockspur Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1272	$2,100	$1.65	24d	1	0.69mi
2167 Graythorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1324	$1,900	$1.44	24d	1	0.73mi
736 West Kingsway Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,742	$1.58	19d	7	0.74mi
2203 Redthorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$2,200	$1.92	11d	1	0.79mi
2202 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.5	1324	$2,300	$1.74	44d	1	0.81mi
2207 Firethorn Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.5	1600	$2,400	$1.50	16d	1	0.83mi
60 S Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	1.0	1234	$2,250	$1.82	44d	1	0.86mi
2125 Hawthorne Rd Middle River, MD	3.0	2.0	1299	$2,100	$1.62	44d	1	0.91mi
153 Bennett Rd Unit Labs Essex, MD	2.0	2.0	1196	$1,800	$1.51	5d	1	0.93mi
233 Orville Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,850	$1.62	44d	1	1.06mi
326 Stemmers Run Rd Essex, MD	4.0	2.0	1144	$2,300	$2.01	44d	1	1.11mi
832 N Marlyn Ave Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1416	$2,300	$1.62	44d	1	1.13mi
1022 Foxwood Ln Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,200	$1.91	16d	1	1.25mi
1 Alder Dr Middle River, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0	1000	$2,249	$2.25	5d	10	1.28mi
1112 Tace Dr Essex, MD	3.0	1.0	1728	$1,781	$1.03	2d	14	1.29mi
953 Walnut Grove Rd Essex, MD	3.0	2.0–2.5	1600	$2,115	$1.32	2d	18	1.30mi
1005 Kayden Ln Essex, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.30mi
1043 Debbie Ave Essex, MD	4.0	2.5	1860	$2,300	$1.24	12d	1	1.43mi
951 Bayner Rd Unit 951 Essex, MD	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,200	$1.91	44d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $117 · $1,404/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $250,000 Active 1 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $250,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,282 · $274/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,282 · $274/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 16% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 47% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,040
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,282
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,163
• − Management: −$2,163
• − HOA: −$1,404
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,080
• After-tax cash flow: $773/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Essex

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #2277

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Essex, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 43,487
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 43,487
• Household income: $67,340
• Rent vs Own: 37.5% rent · 62.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1757.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 32% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.14%
• Current HPI: 237.1069
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+500.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Coming Soon $250,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-04-13 Sold (MLS) $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-03-01 Listed $135,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1989-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,500 Public Records
• 1977-07-13 Sold (Public Records) $41,615 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,282 · +5.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.