438 Havard Rd #2 · Houston, TX 77336

$167,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1977 10,118 sqft lot $161/sqft · 19% below area Est $206k · 19% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity in Water Wonderland! This charming 1,040 sq ft single-story home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and dining area. Situated on Lot 67, the sale includes the adjacent Lots 66 and 68, giving you three contiguous lots totaling ~0.78 acres—perfect for expansion, outdoor living, or investment potential. Enjoy a quiet, low-HOA lakeside community with flexibility and privacy. Don’t miss this unique triple-lot property in a sought-after neighborhood!

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

Tags

• THREE CONTIGUOUS LOTS
• LOW-HOA LAKESIDE COMMUNITY
• UNIQUE TRIPLE-LOT PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $167k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $142k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($96k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $142,042 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.72%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,785
• List price: $167,000
• Delta: -18.85%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
446 Havard Rd	0.03mi	2/1.0 (+1)	984 (-5%)	8mo	$159,000	$162	78
25827 Water Ridge Dr	0.25mi	2/1.0 (+1)	1,000 (-4%)	0mo	$194,900	$195	76
25611 Running Water Dr	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	992 (-5%)	10mo	$149,000	$150	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-33,027
• Equity at exit: $24,900

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-36,275
• Equity at exit: $14,439

Cash invested: $46,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$876
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,459/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $-95

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,540

Max offer price $150,287

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,750
• Closing costs: $5,010
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $167,000 Pending 70 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $167,000 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $167,000 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $167,000 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $167,000 Active 67 DOM
6. 2026-04-27
   price $167,000 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Rare opportunity in Water Wonderland! This charming 1,040 sq ft single-story home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and dining area. Situated on Lot 67, the sale includes the adjacent Lots 66 and 68, giving you three contiguous lots totaling ~0.78 acres—perfect for expansion, outdoor living, or investment potential. Enjoy a quiet, low-HOA lakeside community with flexibility and privacy. Don’t miss this unique triple-lot property in a sought-after neighborhood!

7. 2026-03-25
   listed $196,000 Active 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Rare opportunity in Water Wonderland! This charming 1,040 sq ft single-story home features 2 bedrooms, 1 bath, and dining area. Situated on Lot 67, the sale includes the adjacent Lots 66 and 68, giving you three contiguous lots totaling ~0.78 acres—perfect for expansion, outdoor living, or investment potential. Enjoy a quiet, low-HOA lakeside community with flexibility and privacy. Don’t miss this unique triple-lot property in a sought-after neighborhood!

8. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,056 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$597/yr (+$50/mo · 24.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,459
• − Insurance: −$1,632
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$4,858
• Taxable loss: −$3,987
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$957
• After-tax cash flow: $-179/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $167,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $196,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,459 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.