Is 11125 Solar St in Waco, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.0% cap rate and $-336/mo modeled cash flow at a $315,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 11125 Solar St?

The modeled cap rate is 5.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,586/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 41.23

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +11.7/15.0
Cash flow +7.9/30.0
Schools +6.2/10.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
1% rule +3.2/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
DSCR +2.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$315,000

11125 Solar St · Waco, TX 76655

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot 2-car garage $173/sqft · 9% below area Est $348k · 9% under $38/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

* * INVESTORS PREFERRED WITH CURRENT TENANTS IN LEASE OR SALE OUTRIGHT * * Welcome home to this stunning 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence nestled in the heart of Lorena and zoned to the highly sought-after Midway Independent School District. Offering the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and modern style, this home is ideal for families, professionals, or anyone looking for spacious Texas living with convenient access to Waco, Hewitt, shopping, dining, and major highways. Step inside to an open-concept layout featuring abundant natural light, spacious living areas, and a thoughtfully designed floor plan perfect for entertaining or everyday living. The kitchen offers ample counter space, modern finishes, and plenty of storage for all your cooking and hosting needs. The oversized primary suite serves as a private retreat with a large walk-in closet and an elegant walk-in shower designed for both comfort and convenience. Additional bedrooms are generously sized with flexibility for guest rooms, office space, or playrooms.

Key facts

Backyard
Covered patio
Abundant cabinetry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $315k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (18.9% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (17.9% below list).
Recommended offer: $256k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
Midway ISD (other): math 61% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #56 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Park Hill El (611 students, 43% FRL); Midway Middle (math 58% / reading 58%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 1,075 students, 47% FRL); Midway H S (math 66% / reading 67%, grade B, #186 of 1,632 statewide, top 11%, 2,648 students, 32% FRL).
Market conditions: 406 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 140d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
5 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,590 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.82% ✗
Cap rate: 5.01%
Cash-on-cash: -4.58%
DSCR: 0.80
GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $347,664
List price: $315,000
Delta: -9.40%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1321 Speck Ln	2.12mi	4/3.0	2,280 (+25%)	1mo	$499,990	$219	39
1341 Promised Land Rd	2.21mi	4/3.0	2,159 (+18%)	1mo	$454,072	$210	39
162 Warren Rd	1.97mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,625 (-11%)	0mo	$329,900	$203	38
800 Forward Pass Dr	2.16mi	4/3.0	2,321 (+27%)	4mo	$539,900	$233	37
841 Day Star Dr	2.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (+11%)	1mo	$474,000	$234	37
1316 Promised Land Rd	2.12mi	4/3.0	2,305 (+26%)	4mo	$509,900	$221	36
1333 Red Rock Rd	2.17mi	4/3.0	2,323 (+27%)	5mo	$558,900	$241	36
2304 Paddington Way	1.00mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+26%)	6mo	$585,000	$255	35
1109 Dillinger Rd	2.02mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+17%)	2mo	$444,752	$209	34
900 Day Star Dr	2.09mi	4/2.5	2,085 (+14%)	7mo	$462,900	$222	34
720 Whirlaway Rd	2.18mi	4/2.0	2,237 (+23%)	3mo	$459,900	$206	33
3270 Spring Valley Rd	2.24mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,545 (-15%)	6mo	$269,000	$174	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -24.0%
Equity multiple: 0.18×
Total profit: $-72,300
Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

IRR: -18.9%
Equity multiple: -0.02×
Total profit: $-89,875
Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 106 active · 61 under contract
Median asking: $319,250 ($185/sqft)
Median days on market: 76 d
This list price: 47% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +3.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76655

Home prices YoY: -31.3%
Active inventory: 406
Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,586 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
Tax from tax record: −$558 /mo · $6,696/yr
Insurance: −$131
HOA: −$38
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,012

Max offer price $255,590

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-247	+0% $-336	+5% $-425	+10% $-515
Rent	-10% $-541	-5% $-438	+0% $-336	+5% $-234	+10% $-132
Rate	-1.0pp $-178	-0.5pp $-256	base $-336	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-501

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $78,750
Closing costs: $9,450
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3217 Jackal Dr Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	116d	1	0.22mi
3225 Marston Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,800	$1.51	139d	1	0.51mi
3000 Risinger Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,300	$1.25	6d	1	0.51mi
3128 Brosnan Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1717	$2,350	$1.37	139d	1	0.59mi
2813 Gilchrist Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1529	$2,200	$1.44	139d	1	0.62mi
2809 Keathley Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1565	$2,100	$1.34	139d	1	0.64mi
3117 Sherco Rd Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$2,000	$1.36	139d	1	0.68mi
2701 Skinner Dr Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1573	$2,400	$1.53	139d	1	0.74mi
3012 Teasdale Rd Lorena, TX	4.0	2.0	1873	$2,500	$1.33	0d	1	0.85mi
10312 Sierra West Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1560	$2,300	$1.47	116d	1	0.89mi
12516 Tarres Ct Lorena, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,300	$1.53	0d	1	0.91mi
917 Vail Highlands Hewitt, TX	3.0	2.0	1333	$2,300	$1.73	6d	1	1.35mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Subdivision: Park Mdws South Ph ICommunity features include jogging/bike path, park and playground
Financial info: Listing accepts Cash, Conventional, FHA, USDA, and VA financing
HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee (management fees included)HOA management: Park Meadows Residential Community Inc.

Exterior

Parking: Attached 2-car garage2 covered parking spaces
Security: Burglar alarmFire alarmOther security features
Utilities: City waterCity sewerElectricity availableCable availableNot in a municipal utility district
Home design: Single-family residenceOne storyResidential propertyPreowned (built in 2022)
Construction: Built in 2022Brick, rock/stone, siding, and wood exterior constructionSlab foundation
Exterior features: Covered porch(es)Covered patioPrivacy fencingIrregular lotJogging/bike path, park, and playground in the community

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalElectric rangeIce makerMicrowaveVented exhaust fan
Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks, ensuite bath, and walk-in closet
Flooring: Carpet
Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air (electric)Ceiling fan(s)
Interior features: Granite countersKitchen islandOpen floorplanPantryWalk-in closet(s)Window coverings
Laundry & utility: Utility room with full-size washer/dryer areaElectric water heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-24

days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $315,000 Active 6 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $315,000 Active 3 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $315,000 Active 2 DOM
2026-09-12

pricedays on marketlisting id $315,000 Active 1 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $322,000 Active 99 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $322,000 Active 93 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $322,000 Active 92 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $322,000 Active 91 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $322,000 Active 90 DOM
2026-08-31

days on market $322,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $322,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $322,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $322,000 Active 84 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $322,000 Active 83 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $322,000 Active 82 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $322,000 Active 81 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $322,000 Active 80 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $322,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $322,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $322,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $322,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $322,000 Active 75 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $322,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $322,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $322,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $322,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $322,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $322,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $322,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $322,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $322,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $322,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $322,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $322,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $322,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $322,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $322,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $322,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $322,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $322,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $322,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-26

days on market $322,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $322,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $322,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $322,000 Active 48 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax: $6,696 · $558/mo
Projected year-2 tax: $6,696 · $558/mo
Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $31,030
− Mortgage interest: −$17,645
− Property taxes: −$6,696
− Insurance: −$1,575
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,482
− Management: −$2,482
− HOA: −$456
− Depreciation: −$9,164
Taxable loss: −$9,470

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,273
After-tax cash flow: $-1,763/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,115–$27,345 screening

This well-maintained single-family home in Lorena, TX, offers a good condition with modern amenities and a good ROI potential for investors.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping and adding curb appeal features — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
Both Upgrading light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 62/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Park Hill El Middle Midway Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Midway H S B TX #186/1,632 Nat'l #2,657/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Midway ISD
NCES district ID: 4830640
Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
Median HH income: $67,076
Composite: 52.32/100
National rank: #1593
State rank: #56 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Waco

Score: 74/100
State rank: #166
US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Waco, TX
County: McLennan County · 264,191 people
City population: 125,319
Metro: Waco, TX
Population (ZIP): 10,603
Household income: $99,917
Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
Severe rent burden: 3% of renters

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 264,191 people
By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -105.10%
Current HPI: 230.4333
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Waco, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

-1.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

2026-09-11 Listed $315,000 NTREIS
2026-06-04 Listed $322,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
2025-09-18 Rental Removed $2,590 TURBOTENANT
2025-07-31 Listed for Rent $2,590 TURBOTENANT
2025-07-31 Rental Removed $2,590 TENANTTURNER2
2025-07-10 Price Changed $2,590 TENANTTURNER2
2025-06-21 Listed for Rent $2,640 TENANTTURNER2
2025-05-08 Listed $320,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+123.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,696 · -3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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