183 Carpenter Rd · Watertown, MI 48435

$100,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1984 2.00 ac lot $119/sqft · 62% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 183 Carpenter Rd in Fostoria, MI - a peaceful country retreat offering space, privacy, and endless potential. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a beautiful 2-acre parcel, providing the perfect blend of rural living and everyday comfort. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ample natural light, and room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or seeking a quiet escape from the city, this property offers a solid foundation to fit your needs. Outside is where this property truly shines. The expansive 2-acre lot gives you plenty of room for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. A large pole barn adds incredible value - ideal for storage, a workshop, hobbies, or housing equipment and toys. Located in a quiet, scenic area, this home offers the tranquility of country living while still being within a reasonable drive to nearby amenities. Don't miss your opportunity to own a slice of Michigan countryside with room to grow and make it your own.

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mayville Community School District (rural): math 27% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #363 of 540 in MI (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Tuscola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($691 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Tuscola County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.97%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,971
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -62.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.63×
• Total profit: $73,686
• Equity at exit: $90,088

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.21×
• Total profit: $201,746
• Equity at exit: $194,278

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48435

• Home prices YoY: 11.8%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$21 /mo · $256/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-04-22
   listed $100,000 Active 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

   Welcome to 183 Carpenter Rd in Fostoria, MI—a peaceful country retreat offering space, privacy, and endless potential. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a beautiful 2-acre parcel, providing the perfect blend of rural living and everyday comfort. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ample natural light, and room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or seeking a quiet escape from the city, this property offers a solid foundation to fit your needs. Outside is where this property truly shines. The expansive 2-acre lot gives you plenty of room for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. A large pole barn adds incredible value—ideal for storage, a workshop, hobbies, or housing equipment and toys. Located in a quiet, scenic area, this home offers the tranquility of country living while still being within a reasonable drive to nearby amenities. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a slice of Michigan countryside with room to grow and make it your own.

6. 2026-04-22
   listed $100,000 Active 1075-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

   Welcome to 183 Carpenter Rd in Fostoria, MI—a peaceful country retreat offering space, privacy, and endless potential. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a beautiful 2-acre parcel, providing the perfect blend of rural living and everyday comfort. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ample natural light, and room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or seeking a quiet escape from the city, this property offers a solid foundation to fit your needs. Outside is where this property truly shines. The expansive 2-acre lot gives you plenty of room for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. A large pole barn adds incredible value—ideal for storage, a workshop, hobbies, or housing equipment and toys. Located in a quiet, scenic area, this home offers the tranquility of country living while still being within a reasonable drive to nearby amenities. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a slice of Michigan countryside with room to grow and make it your own.

7. 2026-04-21
   price $100,000 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

   Welcome to 183 Carpenter Rd in Fostoria, MI - a peaceful country retreat offering space, privacy, and endless potential. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a beautiful 2-acre parcel, providing the perfect blend of rural living and everyday comfort. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ample natural light, and room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or seeking a quiet escape from the city, this property offers a solid foundation to fit your needs. Outside is where this property truly shines. The expansive 2-acre lot gives you plenty of room for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. A large pole barn adds incredible value - ideal for storage, a workshop, hobbies, or housing equipment and toys. Located in a quiet, scenic area, this home offers the tranquility of country living while still being within a reasonable drive to nearby amenities. Don't miss your opportunity to own a slice of Michigan countryside with room to grow and make it your own.

8. 2026-04-20
   price $100,000 1075-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1075 chars)

   Welcome to 183 Carpenter Rd in Fostoria, MI—a peaceful country retreat offering space, privacy, and endless potential. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a beautiful 2-acre parcel, providing the perfect blend of rural living and everyday comfort. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ample natural light, and room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or seeking a quiet escape from the city, this property offers a solid foundation to fit your needs. Outside is where this property truly shines. The expansive 2-acre lot gives you plenty of room for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. A large pole barn adds incredible value—ideal for storage, a workshop, hobbies, or housing equipment and toys. Located in a quiet, scenic area, this home offers the tranquility of country living while still being within a reasonable drive to nearby amenities. Don’t miss your opportunity to own a slice of Michigan countryside with room to grow and make it your own.

9. 2026-04-19
   historical $50,000 1055-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1055 chars)

   Welcome to 183 Carpenter Rd in Fostoria, MI - a peaceful country retreat offering space, privacy, and endless potential. This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a beautiful 2-acre parcel, providing the perfect blend of rural living and everyday comfort. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with cozy living spaces, ample natural light, and room to make it your own. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or seeking a quiet escape from the city, this property offers a solid foundation to fit your needs. Outside is where this property truly shines. The expansive 2-acre lot gives you plenty of room for gardening, recreation, or simply enjoying the open space. A large pole barn adds incredible value - ideal for storage, a workshop, hobbies, or housing equipment and toys. Located in a quiet, scenic area, this home offers the tranquility of country living while still being within a reasonable drive to nearby amenities. Don't miss your opportunity to own a slice of Michigan countryside with room to grow and make it your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $256 · $21/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$642/yr (+$53/mo · 250.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$256
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $2,089
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$501
• After-tax cash flow: $3,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mayville Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2623280
• Math proficiency: 27% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,303
• Composite: 25.73/100
• National rank: #7379
• State rank: #363 of 540 in MI

Livability — Watertown

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fostoria, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,592

Population outlook (Tuscola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,930 people
• By 2030: 47,294 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 41,504 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 35,560 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -51.0%
• By 2100: 16,507 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Arabic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+10.8 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.57%
• Current HPI: 223.2511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $100,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $100,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-19 Coming Soon $50,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-10.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $256 · -60.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.