4845 Monticello Ave · Hope Mills, NC 28348

$249,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,813 sqft · Land · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 0.43 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new 4-bedroom, 2-bath Champion Home (Lake Manor model - Thistle colorway) offering 1,813 sq. ft. on a 0.43-acre homesite, with buyer choice between two adjacent parcels. This new construction manufactured home will include an upgraded interior and exterior package featuring 9' ceilings, modern flooring, enhanced cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, black-accent design elements, glass front door, board and batten shutters, and black window package. Buyers will have the opportunity to select certain finishes, colors, and exterior options, including decking and entry configurations, depending on build stage. Property will be serviced by well and septic. Planned installation allows for

Key facts

• Modern flooring
• New construction
• Enhanced cabinetry

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• UPGRADED INTERIOR
• UPGRADED EXTERIOR PACKAGE
• MODERN FLOORING
• ENHANCED CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned residential single family allowing mobile homes
• HOA & community: No homeowner association

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Other foundation
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Lot approximately 0.43 acres (125 x 150)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (26.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gallberry Farm Elementary (math 36% / reading 41%, grade F, #750 of 1,410 statewide, top 54%, 908 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 317 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $6k; list at $250k implies a 4065% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,405 (26.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-55,271
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-60,046
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28348

• Home prices YoY: -14.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 317
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $210,801

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5660 Bauer St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,495	$1.00	23d	1	0.41mi
4807 S Main St Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.5	1722	$1,600	$0.93	23d	1	0.54mi
5536 Gilcrest Sands Dr Hope Mills, NC	3.0	2.0	1421	$1,395	$0.98	23d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,900 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 57 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 49 DOM
16. 2026-04-11
    listed $249,900 Active
17. 2025-08-07
    soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,129
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,843
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,400/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Hope Mills

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #234
• US rank: #10761

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 39,196
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 39,196
• Household income: $66,129
• Rent vs Own: 25.2% rent · 74.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 746.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.14%
• Current HPI: 228.3122
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.28%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+4065.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $249,900 TMLS
• 2025-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $340 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.