The Sparrow II Plan · Splendora, TX 77372

$267,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,397 sqft · SingleFamily · 692 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 13% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Sparrow II offers great versatility with an open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room on the first floor. The primary suite at the back of the main level features a stylish en suite bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Upstairs, you'll find three bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a large loft area, which can be converted into a fifth bedroom and a third bathroom. Enhance your backyard by adding a covered rear patio for the perfect outdoor space.

Key facts

• Large loft area
• Open-concept kitchen
• Covered rear patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STYLISH EN SUITE BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSET
• LARGE LOFT AREA
• COVERED REAR PATIO

🏗️ New construction. The $267,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $294,304.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-258 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 845 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 73% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 692 days — a 12% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $224,794 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 692 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $294,304
• List price: $267,990
• Delta: -8.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14703 Frosted Leaf Trl	0.28mi	4/3.0	2,475 (+3%)	0mo	$319,990	$129	79
14307 Moonflower Dr	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+7%)	1mo	$324,990	$127	77
21722 Piper Betel Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,561 (+7%)	0mo	$325,990	$127	76
14303 Moonflower Dr	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-9%)	0mo	$294,990	$136	72
21826 Cypress Vine Dr	0.24mi	4/2.5	2,173 (-9%)	3mo	$284,990	$131	71
21726 Piper Betel Rd	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,173 (-9%)	4mo	$299,990	$138	66
14479 Trumpet Ln	0.25mi	4/3.0	2,104 (-12%)	4mo	$318,990	$152	63
21734 Piper Betel Rd	0.27mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-15%)	3mo	$306,990	$150	58
14718 Frosted Leaf Trl	0.32mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-15%)	0mo	$306,990	$150	58
14318 Moonflower Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0	2,042 (-15%)	4mo	$297,990	$146	58
21718 Southern Valley Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,226 (-7%)	3mo	$324,990	$146	50
21709 Southern Valley Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,550 (+6%)	4mo	$324,990	$127	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-64,088
• Equity at exit: $43,882

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-76,827
• Equity at exit: $25,446

Cash invested: $82,405 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 124 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 32.3 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $281,490 ($131/sqft)
• Median days on market: 108 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -6.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,248 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,543
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$368 /mo · $4,415/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-258

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,575

Max offer price $256,972

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-55	-5% $-156	+0% $-258	+5% $-360	+10% $-461
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-347	+0% $-258	+5% $-169	+10% $-80
Rate	-1.0pp $-110	-0.5pp $-183	base $-258	+0.5pp $-334	+1.0pp $-412

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,576
• Closing costs: $8,829
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21655 Cottage Ln New Caney, TX	4.0	2.5	2095	$2,900	$1.38	41d	1	0.39mi
21427 Hawthorn Prairie Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2532	$2,095	$0.83	57d	1	0.59mi
14255 Timber Fields Way Splendora, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1797	$2,195	$1.22	7d	55	0.76mi
21501 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,825	$1.03	76d	1	0.80mi
21500 Rustic Elm Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2173	$1,925	$0.89	74d	1	0.83mi
15127 Willow Tree Ln New Caney, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$2,200	$1.25	90d	1	0.87mi
20759 Central Concave Dr New Caney, TX	4.0	3.0	2292	$2,035	$0.89	41d	1	1.14mi
13840 Green Heron Way Splendora, TX	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,695	$1.07	107d	1	1.23mi
22501 Cormorant Ct Unit Labs Splendora, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$1,800	$0.90	24d	1	1.29mi
22501 Cormorant Ct Unit Labs Splendora, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$1,800	$0.90	10d	1	1.29mi
14373 Twin Lakes Cir Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,400	$0.74	184d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $267,990 Active 692 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $267,990 Active 691 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $267,990 Active 690 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $267,990 Active 689 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $267,990 Active 688 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $267,990 Active 686 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $267,990 Active 685 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $267,990 Active 684 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $267,990 Active 683 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $267,990 Active 682 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $267,990 Active 681 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $267,990 Active 680 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $267,990 Active 679 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $267,990 Active 678 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $267,990 Active 677 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $267,990 Active 676 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $267,990 Active 675 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $267,990 Active 674 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $267,990 Active 673 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $267,990 Active 672 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $267,990 Active 671 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $267,990 Active 670 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $267,990 Active 669 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $267,990 Active 668 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $267,990 Active 667 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $267,990 Active 666 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $267,990 Active 665 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $267,990 Active 664 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $267,990 Active 663 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $267,990 Active 662 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $267,990 Active 661 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    days on market $267,990 Active 660 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $267,990 Active 659 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $267,990 Active 658 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $267,990 Active 657 DOM
36. 2026-10-03
    days on market $267,990 Active 656 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $267,990 Active 655 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $267,990 Active 654 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $267,990 Active 653 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $267,990 Active 652 DOM
41. 2026-09-27
    days on market $267,990 Active 650 DOM
42. 2026-09-26
    days on market $267,990 Active 649 DOM
43. 2026-09-25
    days on market $267,990 Active 648 DOM
44. 2026-09-24
    days on market $267,990 Active 647 DOM
45. 2026-09-23
    days on market $267,990 Active 646 DOM
46. 2026-09-22
    days on market $267,990 Active 645 DOM
47. 2026-09-21
    days on market $267,990 Active 644 DOM
48. 2026-09-20
    days on market $267,990 Active 643 DOM
49. 2026-09-19
    days on market $267,990 Active 642 DOM
50. 2026-09-18
    days on market $267,990 Active 641 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,486
• − Property taxes: −$4,415
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,158
• − Management: −$2,158
• − Depreciation: −$8,562
• Taxable loss: −$8,274
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,986
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and some landscaping improvements to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 30/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Piney Woods El F TX #2,982/4,322 Nat'l #29,743/41,679 Middle Splendora J H F TX #842/1,662 Nat'l #7,460/14,009 High Splendora H S F TX #1,170/1,632 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 14% of renters

---

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $259,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $274,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $289,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $292,990 Zillow
• 2024-12-16 Listed $299,990 Zillow