559 W Rheiner · Sabinal, TX 78881

$65,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,687 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 355 Days on market

Built 1959 9,888 sqft lot $39/sqft · 65% below area ↓ 24% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1957 home full of character and potential! This 3 bed, 2 bath home was lovingly maintained by its longtime owner but has been sitting vacant for a few years and will need some updates. Includes washer, dryer, refrigerator, and stove. A detached building next to the home was once used as a hair salon-great opportunity for a home office, guest space, or creative studio. Situated on a spacious corner lot at the edge of town, with a large backyard, small barn with carport area, and plenty of privacy. A great canvas to make your own!

Key facts

• Guest space
• Creative studio
• Large backyard

Tags

• DETACHED BUILDING
• HOME OFFICE
• GUEST SPACE
• CREATIVE STUDIO
• CORNER LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $334 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,346 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sabinal ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #686 of 826 in TX (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Uvalde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $670 of equity ($449 loan paydown + $221 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Uvalde County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price; built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.05%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $183,103
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -64.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 W Culberson St	0.44mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,581 (-6%)	23mo	$80,000	$51	45
418 Polk St	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,940 (+15%)	20mo	$269,000	$139	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.13×
• Total profit: $20,508
• Equity at exit: $19,986

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.04×
• Total profit: $55,266
• Equity at exit: $24,930

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78881

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,086 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,865/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$228
• Net cashflow: $334

Break-even live

Break-even rent $663

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $371	-5% $353	+0% $334	+5% $316	+10% $298
Rent	-10% $249	-5% $292	+0% $334	+5% $377	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $351	base $334	+0.5pp $318	+1.0pp $300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $65,000 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 353 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 352 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 349 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $65,000 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 347 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 344 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 343 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 342 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $65,000 Active 340 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $65,000 Price Change 338 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Price Change 337 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Price Change 336 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Price Change 335 DOM
17. 2026-02-03
    soldstatus
18. 2026-01-15
    price $80,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Charming 1957 home full of character and potential! This 3 bed, 2 bath home was lovingly maintained by its longtime owner but has been sitting vacant for a few years and will need some updates. Includes washer, dryer, refrigerator, and stove. A detached building next to the home was once used as a hair salon-great opportunity for a home office, guest space, or creative studio. Situated on a spacious corner lot at the edge of town, with a large backyard, small barn with carport area, and plenty of privacy. A great canvas to make your own!

19. 2025-07-28
    price $90,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Charming 1957 home full of character and potential! This 3 bed, 2 bath home was lovingly maintained by its longtime owner but has been sitting vacant for a few years and will need some updates. Includes washer, dryer, refrigerator, and stove. A detached building next to the home was once used as a hair salon-great opportunity for a home office, guest space, or creative studio. Situated on a spacious corner lot at the edge of town, with a large backyard, small barn with carport area, and plenty of privacy. A great canvas to make your own!

20. 2025-06-28
    listed $105,000 New 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    Charming 1957 home full of character and potential! This 3 bed, 2 bath home was lovingly maintained by its longtime owner but has been sitting vacant for a few years and will need some updates. Includes washer, dryer, refrigerator, and stove. A detached building next to the home was once used as a hair salon-great opportunity for a home office, guest space, or creative studio. Situated on a spacious corner lot at the edge of town, with a large backyard, small barn with carport area, and plenty of privacy. A great canvas to make your own!

21. 2023-02-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,865 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$1,865
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,042
• − Management: −$1,042
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $3,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$774
• After-tax cash flow: $3,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sabinal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4838430
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,048
• Composite: 23.09/100
• National rank: #7965
• State rank: #686 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sabinal

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1346
• US rank: #23212

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sabinal, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,288

Population outlook (Uvalde County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,865 people
• By 2030: 29,675 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 31,256 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 32,790 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 37,013 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 37,306 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 49% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 10% Slovak 8% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 42%

Political lean MEDSL · Uvalde

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.4) · D 32.9% · R 66.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -33.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.4 2020: R+20.3 2016: R+10.8 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Current HPI: 106.0073
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $80,000 LERA
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $90,000 LERA
• 2025-06-28 Listed $105,000 LERA
• 2023-02-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,865 · +79.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.