3547 CR 405 · Lake Panasoffkee, FL 33538

$169,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1978 0.65 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to peaceful Florida living! This beautifully renovated 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers the perfect blend of privacy, nature, and convenience. Nestled on a spacious lot, the property features a serene canal on one side, with a wooded backdrop creating a quiet, natural setting. Inside, you’ll find a fresh renovation finished in February 2026, including fresh drywall with knockdown texture, stylishly tiled bathrooms, and a stunning kitchen with granite countertops and a large matching island—perfect for entertaining or everyday living. City water adds convenience and peace of mind. The expansive backyard offers endless possibilities—ideal for fencing in for pets, creati

Key facts

• Wooded backdrop
• Stunning kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• SERENE CANAL
• WOODED BACKDROP
• FRESH RENOVATION
• STYLISHLY TILED BATHROOMS
• STUNNING KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property subtype: Manufactured Home; Total acreage: Between 1/2 and less than 1 acre (0.69 acres); Living area reported as 1,440 square feet; Zoned R4M; Number of lots: 1
• Financial info: No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Details not provided
• Security: Details not provided
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; One story; Faces east
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Other foundation type; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Shed(s); On waterfront with canal view and freshwater canal access; Oversized lot; Zoned for horses; Public maintained asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Split bedroom layout
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $169k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.1% in Lake Panasoffkee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#332 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 86 active listings in the ZIP; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $47k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $169k implies a 160% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,982 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.96%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $82,080
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3786 CR 405n	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$169,900	$118	86
3809 CR 405n	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-1%)	3mo	$70,000	$49	81
2506 CR 405	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	13mo	$90,000	$57	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $53,714
• Equity at exit: $95,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $149,390
• Equity at exit: $164,956

Cash invested: $47,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33538

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 86
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,570 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$330
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,273

Max offer price $169,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,250
• Closing costs: $5,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $169,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,000 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,000 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-04-16
    price $169,000
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $185,000 Active
18. 2025-06-13
    soldstatus $65,000
19. 1999-10-18
    soldstatus $40,000
20. 1989-07-01
    soldstatus $36,000
21. 1986-07-01
    soldstatus $24,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,403 · $117/mo
• Expected delta: +$819/yr (+$68/mo · 140.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,838
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,467
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$845
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,507
• − Management: −$1,507
• − Depreciation: −$4,916
• Taxable income: $13
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3
• After-tax cash flow: $2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Panasoffkee

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #332
• US rank: #5777

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Panasoffkee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,748

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.99%
• Current HPI: 329.8431
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+604.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $169,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records
• 1986-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $583 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.