3195 Chads Ct · Asbury Lake, FL 32043

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,142 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1994 9,147 sqft lot Est $248k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 3BR/2BA Home on Quiet Cul-de-Sac - No HOA! Perfect starter home located in Russell Oaks in the desirable Lake Asbury area! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers a comfortable layout and a great location. Featuring hardwood floors, quartz kitchen counters, plus an updated roof, HVAC, and water heater. in 2023. Situated across from Ronnie Van Zant Park and just minutes from Lake Asbury Elementary and Junior High Schools, this home is ideal for families, first-time buyers, or anyone looking for peaceful living without HOA restrictions. A wonderful opportunity to own an affordable home in a growing area!

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Updated water heater
• Updated roof

Tags

• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• QUARTZ KITCHEN COUNTERS
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED HVAC
• UPDATED WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Used as single-family residential
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Rear porch; Fenced yard (other); Located on a cul-de-sac; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($361/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.3% in Asbury Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#776 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Asbury Elementary School (math 69% / reading 64%, grade B+, #473 of 2,144 statewide, top 23%, 975 students, 38% FRL); Lake Asbury Junior High School (math 65% / reading 58%, grade B+, #124 of 571 statewide, top 22%, 1,037 students, 41% FRL); Clay High School (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #228 of 667 statewide, top 35%, 1,666 students, 43% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 891 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,305 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,814
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3211 Ryans Ct	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,134 (-1%)	7mo	$244,000	$215	90
2930 Russell Oaks Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+11%)	9mo	$263,500	$207	71
3207 Sarahs Ct	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,295 (+13%)	4mo	$250,000	$193	68
3184 Sarahs Ct	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+9%)	17mo	$299,000	$241	64
3197 Michaels Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,220 (+7%)	23mo	$265,000	$217	59
3183 Silverado Cir	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	1mo	$285,000	$221	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-44,024
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-57,039
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32043

• Home prices YoY: -26.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 891
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,183 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$279 /mo · $3,352/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$458
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,145

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $101	+0% $30	+5% $-41	+10% $-111
Rent	-10% $-142	-5% $-56	+0% $30	+5% $116	+10% $203
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $94	base $30	+0.5pp $-35	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3349 Citation Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1420	$2,010	$1.42	3d	1	0.27mi
2836 Cross Creek Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,880	$1.29	13d	1	0.35mi
3664 Arava Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$2,065	$1.40	16d	1	0.42mi
3445 Shelley Dr Green Cove Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,930	$1.35	3d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $250,000 Pending 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $250,000 Active Under Contract 5 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    remarks 623-char remark
11. 2026-05-31
    status $250,000 Active Under Contract 4 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-27
    listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,352 · $279/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,352 · $279/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,352
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$3,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$930
• After-tax cash flow: $1,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Asbury Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #17575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Asbury Lake, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,562
• Household income: $84,145
• Rent vs Own: 21.3% rent · 78.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 449.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.34%
• Current HPI: 301.3212
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.46%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $250,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,352 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.