4431 Robinson St · Duluth, MN 55804

$329,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,787 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1906 6,970 sqft lot Est $359k · 8% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful Classic Lakeside Traditional with finished 3rd floor! Very well maintained home and only the 3rd owner since 1906! Newer baths, new rubber roofs on both upper level decks, 100% repainted interior in 2011, kitchen with pantry, rear mudroom & INI completed. Some leaded gl

Key facts

• Finished attic space
• Soaring ceilings
• Original woodwork

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• SOARING CEILINGS
• ORIGINAL WOODWORK
• DECORATIVE COAL FIREPLACE
• FINISHED ATTIC SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached concrete off-street garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; 3 stories
• Construction: Stone foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 140

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Window cooling units
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace (1); Full unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $140 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $295k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.9% in Duluth — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#36 in MN, #1,060 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Duluth Public School District (urban): math 44% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #132 of 301 in MN (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lester Park Elementary (math 73% / reading 77%, grade A, #31 of 857 statewide, top 4%, 575 students, 20% FRL); Ordean East Middle School (math 45% / reading 61%, grade C+, #53 of 258 statewide, top 22%, 989 students, 26% FRL); East High School (math 42% / reading 73%, grade C, #59 of 471 statewide, top 13%, 1,494 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 39% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 62% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Duluth Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 639 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $160k; list at $330k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1906 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $295,045 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1906 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.81%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,187
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4717 Robinson St	0.24mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,756 (-2%)	7mo	$326,000	$186	73
4011 Pitt St	0.49mi	4/2.0	1,881 (+5%)	0mo	$401,128	$213	68
5003 London Rd	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,726 (-3%)	6mo	$290,000	$168	66
4816 Dodge St	0.50mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,837 (+3%)	5mo	$490,000	$267	63
4715 Cooke St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,647 (-8%)	6mo	$331,111	$201	62
4811 Pitt St	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,860 (+4%)	8mo	$352,000	$189	59
1403 N 47th Ave Ave E	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,696 (-5%)	2mo	$345,000	$203	58
4320 Oneida St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,744 (-2%)	4mo	$390,000	$224	58
202 N 40th Ave Ave E	0.50mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,648 (-8%)	0mo	$315,000	$191	56
4102 Dodge St	0.51mi	4/1.5	1,643 (-8%)	10mo	$415,000	$253	53
4432 Otsego St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,689 (-6%)	3mo	$312,000	$185	50
4106 Gladstone St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,521 (-15%)	10mo	$306,250	$201	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-44,581
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-27,417
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55804

• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$324 /mo · $3,886/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $140

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,774

Max offer price $329,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $326	-5% $233	+0% $140	+5% $46	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $23	+0% $140	+5% $256	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $306	-0.5pp $223	base $140	+0.5pp $54	+1.0pp $-33

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3780 London Rd Duluth, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1312	$3,485	$2.66	15d	1	0.83mi
5231 Wyoming St Duluth, MN	3.0	1.0	1500	$2,250	$1.50	23d	1	1.17mi
4932 Norwood St Unit 1 Duluth, MN	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,995	$1.50	45d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $329,900 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $329,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $329,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $329,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $329,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $329,900 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-05-20
   listed $329,900 Active
8. 2013-07-17
   soldstatus $159,900
9. 2013-07-12
   soldstatus $159,900 286-char remark

   Show marketing remark (286 chars)

   Wonderful Classic Lakeside Traditional with finished 3rd floor! Very well maintained home and only the 3rd owner since 1906! Newer baths, new rubber roofs on both upper level decks, 100% repainted interior in 2011, kitchen with pantry, rear mudroom & INI completed. Some leaded gl

10. 2013-01-31
    listed $159,900 286-char remark

    Show marketing remark (286 chars)

    Wonderful Classic Lakeside Traditional with finished 3rd floor! Very well maintained home and only the 3rd owner since 1906! Newer baths, new rubber roofs on both upper level decks, 100% repainted interior in 2011, kitchen with pantry, rear mudroom & INI completed. Some leaded gl

11. 2012-10-03
    listed $159,900
12. 2012-05-01
    listed $165,000
13. 2011-11-11
    listed $175,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,886 · $324/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,886 · $324/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,886
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$3,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$929
• After-tax cash flow: $2,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duluth Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2711040
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,692
• Composite: 41.92/100
• National rank: #3360
• State rank: #132 of 301 in MN

Livability — Duluth

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #36
• US rank: #1060

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Duluth, MN
• City population: 71,097
• Population (ZIP): 16,018

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,411 people
• By 2030: 203,234 · +0.4%
• By 2040: 202,520 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 200,853 · -0.8%
• By 2075: 200,943 · -0.7%
• By 2100: 192,058 · -5.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Scottish 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: D (+13.7) · D 55.9% · R 42.2% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.7 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+11.8 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -253.94%
• Current HPI: 199.4064
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+88.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $329,900 LSAR
• 2013-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $159,900 Public Records
• 2013-07-12 Sold (MLS) $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-31 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-03 Listed $159,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Listed $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-11-11 Listed $175,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,886 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.