163 Hinesburg Rd · South Burlington, VT 05403

$514,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,626 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1968 0.26 ac lot $317/sqft · 26% below area Est $652k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 2 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment or owner occupied opportunity. Side by side duplex conveniently situated near South Burlington's bustling new City Center with shops and restaurants. Spacious 2 bedroom units featuring hardwood in many rooms, with enclosed porches on either side. Located on the bus-line and minutes from the airport, University of Vermont Medical Center, schools, interstate access and a broad base of central commerce.

Key facts

• Enclosed porches
• Near city center
• Minutes from airport

Tags

• SIDE BY SIDE DUPLEX
• ENCLOSED PORCHES
• BUS-LINE ACCESS
• MINUTES FROM AIRPORT
• NEAR CITY CENTER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2 × 2-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $515k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive. Per door: $160/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $466k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $466k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.5% in South Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#4 in VT, #765 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living D-.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,655/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($106k/yr) (locally 799% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($499k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $182k; list at $515k implies a 183% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $465,500 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.66%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $652,286
• List price: $514,900
• Delta: -21.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-71,961
• Equity at exit: $76,773

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-71,511
• Equity at exit: $44,519

Cash invested: $144,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05403

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 18.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,700
• Tax from tax record: −$443 /mo · $5,318/yr
• Insurance: −$215
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$978
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,251

Max offer price $514,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $611	-5% $465	+0% $320	+5% $174	+10% $28
Rent	-10% $-48	-5% $136	+0% $320	+5% $503	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $579	-0.5pp $451	base $320	+0.5pp $186	+1.0pp $50

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$4,656
Total (2 units)			$4,655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $128,725
• Closing costs: $15,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Garden St South Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$3,100	$2.87	21d	1	0.30mi
268 Market St South Burlington, VT	3.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,029	$2.06	21d	1	0.38mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $514,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $514,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $514,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $514,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $514,900 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $514,900 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $514,900 Active 53 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $514,900 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $514,900 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $514,900 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $514,900 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $514,900 Active 44 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $514,900 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $514,900 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $514,900 Active 41 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $514,900 Active 40 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    price $514,900 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Great investment or owner occupied opportunity. Side by side duplex conveniently situated near South Burlington's bustling new City Center with shops and restaurants. Spacious 2 bedroom units featuring hardwood in many rooms, with enclosed porches on either side. Located on the bus-line and minutes from the airport, University of Vermont Medical Center, schools, interstate access and a broad base of central commerce.

18. 2026-05-06
    status Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Great investment or owner occupied opportunity. Side by side duplex conveniently situated near South Burlington's bustling new City Center with shops and restaurants. Spacious 2 bedroom units featuring hardwood in many rooms, with enclosed porches on either side. Located on the bus-line and minutes from the airport, University of Vermont Medical Center, schools, interstate access and a broad base of central commerce.

19. 2026-04-22
    status Pending 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Great investment or owner occupied opportunity. Side by side duplex conveniently situated near South Burlington's bustling new City Center with shops and restaurants. Spacious 2 bedroom units featuring hardwood in many rooms, with enclosed porches on either side. Located on the bus-line and minutes from the airport, University of Vermont Medical Center, schools, interstate access and a broad base of central commerce.

20. 2026-04-06
    listed $534,900 Active 420-char remark

    Show marketing remark (420 chars)

    Great investment or owner occupied opportunity. Side by side duplex conveniently situated near South Burlington's bustling new City Center with shops and restaurants. Spacious 2 bedroom units featuring hardwood in many rooms, with enclosed porches on either side. Located on the bus-line and minutes from the airport, University of Vermont Medical Center, schools, interstate access and a broad base of central commerce.

21. 2025-12-16
    soldstatus $182,150

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,318 · $443/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,551 · $629/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,233/yr (+$186/mo · 42.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$28,842
• − Property taxes: −$5,318
• − Insurance: −$2,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,469
• − Management: −$4,469
• − Depreciation: −$14,979
• Taxable loss: −$4,791
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $4,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — South Burlington

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #765

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Burlington, VT
• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 20,614
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 20,614
• Household income: $105,616
• Rent vs Own: 38.6% rent · 61.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 799.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Asian 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Philippines
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -199.90%
• Current HPI: 282.4307
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.08%
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+182.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $514,900 PrimeMLS
• 2026-05-06 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-22 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $534,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $182,150 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $5,318 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.