Carlisle Plan · Astatula, FL 34705

$479,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,797 sqft · SingleFamily · 308 Days on market

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Carlisle - Spacious and Efficient Family Living The Carlisle single-family home is thoughtfully designed for comfortable and efficient living, offering at least 2,797 square feet of beautifully finished space. This versatile floor plan includes 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms as a foundation you can build on. Enjoy seamless flow throughout the home-from the garage to the kitchen, into the great room, and around the flexible living spaces-making everyday life easy and convenient. Storage is well-planned with walk-in closets in every bedroom except one, plus a spacious walk-in pantry in the kitchen. Upstairs features all four bedrooms, including a master suite with dual vanitie

Key facts

• Master suite
• Walk-in closets
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN PANTRY
• MASTER SUITE
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 12986 Stillwater Cove Dr, Astatula FL 34705; Status: Active
• Financial info: List price $479,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: New construction plan (Carlisle)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2797

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan home (Carlisle)

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $480k).
• Recommended offer: $422k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#319 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (2.7% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $134k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 308 days — a 12% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $422,391 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 308 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.00%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.67% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $135,284
• Equity at exit: $207,079

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.77×
• Total profit: $372,194
• Equity at exit: $312,495

Cash invested: $134,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34705

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,200/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,239
• Net cashflow: $1,344

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,199

Max offer price $479,990

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,998
• Closing costs: $14,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12830 Florida Ave Astatula, FL	4.0	3.0	3211	$5,900	$1.84	4d	1	0.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,990 Active 308 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,990 Active 307 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,990 Active 306 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,990 Active 305 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,990 Active 303 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,990 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $479,990 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $479,990 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $479,990 Active 294 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,990 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,990 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,990 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,990 Active 290 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $70,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,887
• − Property taxes: −$7,200
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,664
• − Management: −$5,664
• − Depreciation: −$13,963
• Taxable income: $9,022
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $13,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Astatula

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #319
• US rank: #5538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Astatula, FL
• Population (ZIP): 3,212

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.67%
• Current HPI: 368.3718
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B