1126 Desert Oasis Ln · Rosenberg, TX 77471

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,634 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2007 6,655 sqft lot $135/sqft · 11% below area Est $246k · 11% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ABSOLUTELY BEAUTIFUL SINGLE STORY HOME IN IMMACULATE MOVE-IN CONDITION! SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN FOR CASUAL FAMILY LIVING. FEATURES: SECLUDED PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE, HOME OFFICE/STUDY CAN ALSO BE USED AS A 4TH BEDROOM, COVERED REAR PATIO. FABULOUS LOCATION! NEAR TO US-59.

Key facts

• Covered rear patio
• Single story home
• Home office study

Tags

• SINGLE STORY HOME
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SECLUDED PRIMARY BEDROOM SUITE
• HOME OFFICE STUDY
• COVERED REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Montage Community Services; Annual association fee $462 (includes recreation facilities); Community pool; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with automatic garage door opener; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2007; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Builder: Fox & Jacobs; Total living area 1,634
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fence around backyard; Subdivision setting; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Gas range; Oven; Microwave; Disposal; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (11x10, 12x11, 16x12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Double vanity; Kitchen/open-concept family room; Pantry; Soaking tub; Separate shower; Combination tub/shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room on first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-135 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $196k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $196k (10.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.4% in Rosenberg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#922 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Meyer El (math 25% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,247 of 4,322 statewide, top 76%, 704 students, 74% FRL); George J H (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,173 students, 81% FRL); B F Terry H S (math 34% / reading 41%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 1,739 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 43% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Lamar CISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 728 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $196,136 (10.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.63%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,854
• List price: $220,000
• Delta: -10.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1126 Desert Oasis Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,634 (0%)	0mo	$220,000	$135	100
1123 Desert Springs Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,796 (+10%)	7mo	$235,000	$131	74
1210 Athea Way	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,709 (+5%)	7mo	$259,900	$152	72
1110 Desert Springs Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	24mo	$249,000	$160	70
1307 Pease River Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-8%)	16mo	$255,000	$169	67
1327 Athea Way	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,521 (-7%)	12mo	$245,000	$161	64
815 Coffee Mill Creek Ln	0.22mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+9%)	16mo	$275,000	$154	60
519 Wild Cotton Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,811 (+11%)	18mo	$229,900	$127	52
921 Bernard Ave	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,666 (+2%)	19mo	$320,000	$192	46
802 Bernard Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,530 (-6%)	14mo	$289,900	$189	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-50,019
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-76,887
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77471

• Home prices YoY: -19.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 728
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,023 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$449 /mo · $5,382/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-135

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,194

Max offer price $196,136

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-73	+0% $-135	+5% $-197	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-295	-5% $-215	+0% $-135	+5% $-55	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-24	-0.5pp $-79	base $-135	+0.5pp $-192	+1.0pp $-250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1621 Perennial Ln Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.5	1792	$1,831	$1.02	0d	1	0.23mi
1804 Spring Acres Dr Rosenberg, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1670	$2,320	$1.39	0d	1	0.72mi
27315 Southwest Fwy Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,570	$1.33	45d	1	0.72mi
4516 Bartagrass Dr Richmond, TX	4.0	2.0	2160	$3,850	$1.78	45d	1	1.16mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 3174 Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1135	$1,669	$1.47	0d	1	1.35mi
3419 Fountains Dr Unit 3452 Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,720	$1.46	45d	1	1.35mi
909 Klare Ave Rosenberg, TX	3.0	2.0	1836	$1,895	$1.03	45d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 271-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   status Pending 271-char remark
3. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 271-char remark
4. 2026-04-30
   price $220,000 271-char remark
5. 2026-04-20
   listed $225,000 Active 271-char remark
6. 2026-04-19
   historical
7. 2026-04-18
   listed $230,000 Active
8. 2026-04-07
   historical
9. 2026-03-27
   listed $235,000 Active
10. 2026-03-26
    historical
11. 2026-03-04
    listed $240,000 Active
12. 2026-03-04
    historical
13. 2026-02-18
    listed $250,000 Active
14. 2012-02-13
    soldstatus
15. 2012-02-03
    soldstatus
16. 2012-01-30
    historical
17. 2012-01-09
    listed $79,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,382 · $449/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,382 · $449/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$5,382
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,942
• − Management: −$1,942
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,287
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,269
• After-tax cash flow: $-352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Rosenberg

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #922
• US rank: #16414

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosenberg, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 115,151
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 45,325
• Household income: $73,186
• Rent vs Own: 41.7% rent · 58.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1688.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 56% White 23% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 46%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 35% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.06%
• Current HPI: 309.5425
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.97%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+178.5% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-18 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listed $235,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 2012-02-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-02-03 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-01-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-01-09 Listed $79,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,382 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.