731 Camellia Dr · South Venice, FL 34293

$118,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 671 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1969 4,054 sqft lot $254/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Japanese Gardens, an active 55+ community! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom singlewide offers comfortable Florida living with a mix of laminate, carpet, and vinyl flooring throughout. The updated kitchen features modern finishes, while the spacious screened lanai provides the perfect space to relax or entertain year-round. Major updates have already been completed, including new windows, all new plumbing and fully replaced A/C ductwork, offering added peace of mind. Ideally located just a short distance from the clubhouse and pool, this home combines convenience with a great location within the community. Japanese Gardens offers a wide range of amenities, including a heated pool and hot tub, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, horseshoes, a clubhouse, library, billiards room, and a full calendar of social activities. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy the Florida lifestyle in a welcoming and vibrant community!

Key facts

• New plumbing
• Updated kitchen
• Heated pool

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS SCREENED LANAI
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW PLUMBING
• REPLACED A C DUCTWORK
• HEATED POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-273/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (3.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Englewood Elementary School (math 65% / reading 66%, grade B+, #500 of 2,144 statewide, top 24%, 587 students, 52% FRL); Venice Middle School (math 71% / reading 58%, grade A-, #100 of 571 statewide, top 18%, 761 students, 37% FRL); Venice Senior High School (math 67% / reading 61%, grade B-, #86 of 667 statewide, top 13%, 2,584 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 40% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1259 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $80k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,920 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.66%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-24,202
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-37,110
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34293

• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1259
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,784 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,007/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$254
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$375
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,813

Max offer price $113,978

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $11	+0% $-23	+5% $-56	+10% $-90
Rent	-10% $-164	-5% $-93	+0% $-23	+5% $48	+10% $118
Rate	-1.0pp $37	-0.5pp $7	base $-23	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $254 · $3,048/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $118,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $118,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $118,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $118,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $118,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $118,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $118,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $118,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $118,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $118,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $118,000 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $118,000 Active 65 DOM
18. 2026-03-27
    listed $118,000 Active 933-char remark

    Show marketing remark (933 chars)

    Welcome to Japanese Gardens, an active 55+ community! This 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom singlewide offers comfortable Florida living with a mix of laminate, carpet, and vinyl flooring throughout. The updated kitchen features modern finishes, while the spacious screened lanai provides the perfect space to relax or entertain year-round. Major updates have already been completed, including new windows, all new plumbing and fully replaced A/C ductwork, offering added peace of mind. Ideally located just a short distance from the clubhouse and pool, this home combines convenience with a great location within the community. Japanese Gardens offers a wide range of amenities, including a heated pool and hot tub, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, horseshoes, a clubhouse, library, billiards room, and a full calendar of social activities. Don’t miss this opportunity to enjoy the Florida lifestyle in a welcoming and vibrant community!

19. 2005-09-14
    soldstatus $80,000
20. 1996-04-29
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,007 · $84/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,412
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,007
• − Insurance: −$5,708
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,713
• − Management: −$1,713
• − HOA: −$3,048
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable loss: −$1,820
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$437
• After-tax cash flow: $163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — South Venice

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Venice, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 75,324
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 50,278
• Household income: $90,038
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 548.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -355.64%
• Current HPI: 270.5242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+353.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $118,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-14 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,007 · -13.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.