23750 Carson Dr #44 · Pioneer, CA 95666

$53,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Manufactured · 355 Days on market

Built 1978 $43/sqft · at area comps Est $55k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Manufactured home in a family park. Extra-large 1/3 acre lots with lots of trees and room for gardens and play area. Good size rooms with some updating inside and out. Good size shop/storage building in the back yard with power. How often do you see lots this big? New buyers space rent will be $877.11,, Does not include water sewer or garbage.

Key facts

• Play area
• Extra-large lots
• Back yard with power

Tags

• EXTRA-LARGE LOTS
• ROOM FOR GARDENS
• PLAY AREA
• SHOP STORAGE BUILDING
• BACK YARD WITH POWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#419 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 87.94%
• DSCR: 4.91
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,885
• List price: $53,000
• Delta: -3.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 88.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.09×
• Total profit: $60,705
• Equity at exit: $7,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 91.5%
• Equity multiple: 10.58×
• Total profit: $142,163
• Equity at exit: $4,582

Cash invested: $14,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95666

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,840 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$278
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $795/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $1,088

Break-even live

Break-even rent $464

Max offer price $53,000

Occupancy floor 36%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,124	-5% $1,106	+0% $1,088	+5% $1,069	+10% $1,051
Rent	-10% $942	-5% $1,015	+0% $1,088	+5% $1,160	+10% $1,233
Rate	-1.0pp $1,114	-0.5pp $1,101	base $1,088	+0.5pp $1,074	+1.0pp $1,060

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,250
• Closing costs: $1,590
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $53,000 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $53,000 Active 352 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $53,000 Active 351 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $53,000 Active 350 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $53,000 Active 349 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $53,000 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $53,000 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $53,000 Active 343 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $53,000 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $53,000 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $53,000 Active 338 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $53,000 Active 337 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $53,000 Active 336 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $53,000 Active 335 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $53,000 Active 334 DOM
16. 2017-06-17
    price $56,900
17. 2017-04-13
    price $42,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥98°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,083
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,969
• − Property taxes: −$795
• − Insurance: −$265
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$1,542
• Taxable income: $12,979
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,115
• After-tax cash flow: $9,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #14266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pioneer, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,089

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.84%
• Current HPI: 143.0962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+32.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2017-06-17 Price Changed $56,900 Fizber.com
• 2017-04-13 Price Changed $42,900 Fizber.com