656 Steppe Pl · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$245,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,155 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1976 8,000 sqft lot Est $394k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 5 bedroom 2 bath home is ideally situated near Buffalo Soldier Trail and in close proximity to FT. HUACHUCA. The HUGE 5th bedroom has dual closets and offers a variety of uses. .. .homeschool, sewing, office, bedroom, game, exercise, etc. .. .Two nice patio rooms and living room to dress to your taste, and with a cozy fireplace in the entry living room will give this home the welcoming invite every guest enjoys!

Key facts

• 8,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1976
• Listed 29 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 2,155 (listed); Lot dimensions approximately 80.13 x 100.13 x 80.13 x 100.13
• HOA & community: No association amenities; Paved streets and sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Security: Window bars; Wrought iron security door; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Water provided by local water company; Sewer connected; Phone connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces north; Accessible features include level entry and wide hallways
• Construction: Brick and siding construction; Shingle and rolled/hot mop roof
• Exterior features: Covered, screened and enclosed patio; Patio; Block fencing; Shed(s); Decorative gravel; Adjacent to alley; North/South exposure; Paved street and city-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop and oven; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified dishwasher; ENERGY STAR qualified refrigerator; ENERGY STAR qualified water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Central air conditioning with ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Skylights; Pre-wired for satellite dish; Has fireplace (wood-burning in living room)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $29 ($350/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (22.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Joyce Clark Middle School (math 26% / reading 39%, grade F, #70 of 218 statewide, top 32%, 670 students, 46% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,046 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.51%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $394,365
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1023 Essex Dr	0.49mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,202 (+2%)	2mo	$335,000	$152	67
304 Brookhaven Pl	0.46mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,025 (-6%)	1mo	$375,000	$185	61
1934 Exeter Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,275 (+6%)	11mo	$280,000	$123	57
1665 E Crestwood Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,168 (+1%)	8mo	$365,000	$168	56
326 Brookhaven Pl #170	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,013 (-7%)	9mo	$388,500	$193	55
369 Berwick Pl	0.47mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,021 (-6%)	7mo	$355,000	$176	55
717 Chantilly Dr	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,945 (-10%)	12mo	$355,000	$183	54
1032 Rain Flower Ln Lot 16	0.71mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,081 (-3%)	4mo	$591,039	$284	52
1802 Brookshire Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,022 (-6%)	12mo	$380,000	$188	51
1825 Devonshire Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,241 (+4%)	10mo	$290,000	$129	51
1798 Brookshire Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,018 (-6%)	11mo	$395,000	$196	50
630 S 1st St	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (-12%)	7mo	$280,000	$147	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-43,542
• Equity at exit: $36,530

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-57,573
• Equity at exit: $21,183

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,910 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,118/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$401
• Net cashflow: $29

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,874

Max offer price $245,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $168	-5% $99	+0% $29	+5% $-40	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-122	-5% $-46	+0% $29	+5% $105	+10% $180
Rate	-1.0pp $153	-0.5pp $92	base $29	+0.5pp $-34	+1.0pp $-99

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 29 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $245,000 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $245,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 7 DOM
18. 2026-05-23
    listed $245,000 Active
19. 2026-05-23
    listed $245,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,118 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,617 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: +$499/yr (+$42/mo · 44.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,926
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$1,118
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,834
• − Management: −$1,834
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$3,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$945
• After-tax cash flow: $1,295/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $245,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-23 Listed $245,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,118 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.