14433 Forest Dr · Baxter, MN 56425

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,484 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 2000 0.80 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare opportunity to own nearly an acre in the heart of Baxter! This 3BR/2BA home sits on a .8-acre lot and is designed for comfortable main-level living. The interior features a primary suite, a functional laundry/mudroom, and an inviting kitchen updated with new countertops in 2025. Relax by the wood-burning fireplace or host summer BBQs on the brand-new front deck (2024). This home is built to last with a metal roof installed in 2018. Outside, you’ll find a small fenced portion of the yard ideal for pets, with nearly an acre of total land to enjoy. Located just a short drive from major health care hubs, shopping, and dining, you get the benefit of a large lot with all the city’s amenities at your fingertips. All living facilities on one level—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Inviting kitchen
• Nearly an acre
• Primary suite

Tags

• NEARLY AN ACRE
• PRIMARY SUITE
• FUNCTIONAL LAUNDRY MUDROOM
• INVITING KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (11.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.7% in Baxter — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Brainerd Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #85 of 301 in MN (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 126 active listings in the ZIP; 420 units permitted in Crow Wing County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Crow Wing County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $210k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,705 (11.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.92%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $126,478
• Equity at exit: $189,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.17×
• Total profit: $362,685
• Equity at exit: $407,790

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56425

• Home prices YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,867 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,136/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $311	-5% $252	+0% $192	+5% $133	+10% $73
Rent	-10% $45	-5% $118	+0% $192	+5% $266	+10% $340
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $245	base $192	+0.5pp $138	+1.0pp $82

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $209,900 Pending 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $209,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $209,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $209,900 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $209,900 Active 46 DOM
6. 2026-05-11
   price $209,900 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own nearly an acre in the heart of Baxter! This 3BR/2BA home sits on a .8-acre lot and is designed for comfortable main-level living. The interior features a primary suite, a functional laundry/mudroom, and an inviting kitchen updated with new countertops in 2025. Relax by the wood-burning fireplace or host summer BBQs on the brand-new front deck (2024). This home is built to last with a metal roof installed in 2018. Outside, you’ll find a small fenced portion of the yard ideal for pets, with nearly an acre of total land to enjoy. Located just a short drive from major health care hubs, shopping, and dining, you get the benefit of a large lot with all the city’s amenities at your fingertips. All living facilities on one level—schedule your showing today!

7. 2026-04-14
   listed $219,900 Active 801-char remark

   Show marketing remark (801 chars)

   Rare opportunity to own nearly an acre in the heart of Baxter! This 3BR/2BA home sits on a .8-acre lot and is designed for comfortable main-level living. The interior features a primary suite, a functional laundry/mudroom, and an inviting kitchen updated with new countertops in 2025. Relax by the wood-burning fireplace or host summer BBQs on the brand-new front deck (2024). This home is built to last with a metal roof installed in 2018. Outside, you’ll find a small fenced portion of the yard ideal for pets, with nearly an acre of total land to enjoy. Located just a short drive from major health care hubs, shopping, and dining, you get the benefit of a large lot with all the city’s amenities at your fingertips. All living facilities on one level—schedule your showing today!

8. 2011-03-31
   soldstatus $74,900 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Great 3 bed/2 bath Baxter home featuring: private master suite w/ large soaking tub, laundry/mud room, inviting paint scheme, large kitchen w/ plenty of cupboard space, beautiful wood burning fireplace, convient location and more! Act now!

9. 2010-08-04
   historical 239-char remark

   Show marketing remark (239 chars)

   Great 3 bed/2 bath Baxter home featuring: private master suite w/ large soaking tub, laundry/mud room, inviting paint scheme, large kitchen w/ plenty of cupboard space, beautiful wood burning fireplace, convient location and more! Act now!

10. 2010-06-01
    listed $79,900 239-char remark

    Show marketing remark (239 chars)

    Great 3 bed/2 bath Baxter home featuring: private master suite w/ large soaking tub, laundry/mud room, inviting paint scheme, large kitchen w/ plenty of cupboard space, beautiful wood burning fireplace, convient location and more! Act now!

11. 2006-05-15
    historical
12. 2006-05-15
    soldstatus $58,000
13. 2005-08-31
    listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,136 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Expected delta: +$607/yr (+$51/mo · 53.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,405
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,136
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,792
• − Management: −$1,792
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$1,229
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$295
• After-tax cash flow: $2,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brainerd Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2706090
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $49,059
• Composite: 45.57/100
• National rank: #2596
• State rank: #85 of 301 in MN

Livability — Baxter

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7794

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baxter, MN
• County: Crow Wing County · 40,773 people
• City population: 8,932
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• Population (ZIP): 8,932
• Household income: $70,740
• Rent vs Own: 36.9% rent · 63.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Crow Wing County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 64,187 people
• By 2030: 64,057 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 62,470 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 59,064 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 48,738 · -24.1%
• By 2100: 36,112 · -43.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crow Wing

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.6% · R 65.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: -7.7pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+29.7 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+7.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.09%
• Current HPI: 205.2145
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Brainerd, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+250.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $209,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $219,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-03-31 Sold (MLS) $74,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-06-01 Listed $79,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-15 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-05-15 Sold (MLS) $58,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-08-31 Listed $59,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,136 · -26.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.