4207 Ridge Dr · Colonial Park, PA 17109

$200,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1954 0.25 ac lot $142/sqft · at area comps Est $254k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Upcoming Auction Monday May 18th 2026 at 11a. m. 2 Story masonry construction with four Bedroom and one and a half Baths. Dining Room. .. kitchen. .. Living Room. .. Breezeway from attached one car garage. Peaceful , quaint and quiet neighborhood. Public water and sewer. Gas available. All situated on a spacious Shaded lot. . Terms: $20,000 Down sale day. Balance on or before 45 days. Further terms announced at Auction.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.7% in Colonial Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#464 in PA, #4,237 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Dauphin SD (suburban): math 30% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #305 of 539 in PA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 540 units permitted in Dauphin County in 2024 (194 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,792 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.96%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,444
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: -21.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4614 Clarendon St	0.46mi	4/1.0	1,381 (-2%)	2mo	$235,000	$170	74
120 Maple Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,498 (+6%)	1mo	$305,000	$204	57
4606 Hillside Rd	0.40mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,499 (+6%)	8mo	$240,000	$160	53
402 Davis St	0.46mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,305 (-7%)	11mo	$249,000	$191	50
4711 Marblehead St	0.64mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,299 (-8%)	11mo	$219,900	$169	44
206 Park St	0.73mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (+10%)	3mo	$170,000	$110	40
4009 Eastbrook Rd	0.51mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,591 (+13%)	9mo	$249,500	$157	40
3984 Williams St	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,196 (-15%)	1mo	$260,900	$218	39
112 Levan St	0.54mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,605 (+14%)	10mo	$259,000	$161	38
212 Wood St	0.62mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,608 (+14%)	6mo	$250,000	$155	36
209 Wood St	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,571 (+12%)	8mo	$280,000	$178	35
417 Susan Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,619 (+15%)	9mo	$280,000	$173	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-18,847
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,436
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17109

• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,938 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,128/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,763

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
821 Sequoia Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1200	$1,945	$1.62	13d	42	0.38mi
4227 Cambridge St Harrisburg, PA	3.0	1.0	1210	$1,950	$1.61	43d	1	0.39mi
4212 Williamsburg Dr Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	923	$1,808	$1.96	13d	14	0.98mi
301 N Progress Ave Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1203	$1,610	$1.34	13d	4	1.18mi
4112 Beechwood Ln Harrisburg, PA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,958	$1.94	13d	8	1.32mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-22
   listed $90,000 Active 423-char remark

   Show marketing remark (423 chars)

   Upcoming Auction Monday May 18th 2026 at 11a. m. 2 Story masonry construction with four Bedroom and one and a half Baths. Dining Room. .. kitchen. .. Living Room. .. Breezeway from attached one car garage. Peaceful , quaint and quiet neighborhood. Public water and sewer. Gas available. All situated on a spacious Shaded lot. . Terms: $20,000 Down sale day. Balance on or before 45 days. Further terms announced at Auction.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,128 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,144 · $262/mo
• Expected delta: +$16/yr (+$1/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,128
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,860
• − Management: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$1,616
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$388
• After-tax cash flow: $2,045/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Dauphin SD
• NCES district ID: 4205400
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,792
• Composite: 36.46/100
• National rank: #4664
• State rank: #305 of 539 in PA

Livability — Colonial Park

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #4237

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Colonial Park, PA
• County: Dauphin County · 247,857 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,466
• Household income: $71,833
• Rent vs Own: 48.0% rent · 52.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1266.0

Population outlook (Dauphin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 281,628 people
• By 2030: 283,549 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 285,385 · +1.3%
• By 2050: 286,188 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 291,053 · +3.3%
• By 2100: 282,374 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 23% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 11% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Polish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · India, Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 5% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Dauphin

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: 9.1pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+8.5 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+9.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.02%
• Current HPI: 253.77
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.37%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,128 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.