19 Gray Rd · Jasper, AL 35504

$134,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Good condition 0.70 ac lot Est $126k · 6% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• ARV discount +4.8/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Boldo-a quiet, country setting just minutes to all amenities. This 3 BR, 2 BA double sits on approximately 0.7 acres, offering the perfect blend of space & convenience. Enjoy a comfortable layout with plenty of room for family living, along with a relaxing side porch-ideal for morning coffee or winding down in the evenings. This property is a great place to call home.

Key facts

• Relaxing side porch
• 0.7 acre lot
• Listed 15 days

Tags

• RELAXING SIDE PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential mobile home
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric oven
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric oven

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $134k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $185 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $134k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#228 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Walker County (rural): math 13% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #89 of 129 in AL (top 69%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Valley Junior High School (math 19% / reading 45%, grade F, #331 of 627 statewide, top 57%, 599 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 53% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36 units permitted in Walker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $926 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Walker County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,990 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.92%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $126,336
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27709 Highway 69	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,328 (-1%)	17mo	$31,101	$23	78
270 S Pine Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,327 (-1%)	13mo	$205,000	$154	60
5089 Arkadelphia Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,285 (-4%)	21mo	$31,000	$24	58
630 Dowdey Rd	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,280 (-5%)	6mo	$120,000	$94	49
1943 Boldo Rd	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+12%)	0mo	$205,000	$137	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,913
• Equity at exit: $19,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $6,623
• Equity at exit: $11,586

Cash invested: $37,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35504

• Home prices YoY: -34.0%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$703
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$168 /mo · $2,010/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $185

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $134,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $231	+0% $185	+5% $139	+10% $92
Rent	-10% $74	-5% $129	+0% $185	+5% $241	+10% $296
Rate	-1.0pp $252	-0.5pp $219	base $185	+0.5pp $150	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,500
• Closing costs: $4,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5382 Arkadelphia Rd Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1492	$1,225	$0.82	21d	1	0.05mi
118 Barnett Pl Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1801	$1,750	$0.97	46d	1	0.43mi
75 Dreher Rd Jasper, AL	4.0	2.0	1681	$1,750	$1.04	26d	1	0.46mi
350 S Pine Dr Jasper, AL	4.0	2.0	1681	$1,501	$0.89	46d	1	0.52mi
255 Dreher Rd Jasper, AL	3.0	2.0	1801	$1,695	$0.94	26d	1	0.60mi
187 Crossroads Cir , AL	2.0	2.0	1801	$1,536	$0.85	46d	1	0.63mi
106 Joe Brackett Rd Jasper, AL	2.0	1.0	877	$1,000	$1.14	26d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $134,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $134,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $134,000 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $134,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    remarks 383-char remark
12. 2026-06-08
    listed $134,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,506
• − Property taxes: −$2,010
• − Insurance: −$670
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$3,898
• Taxable income: $92
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$22
• After-tax cash flow: $2,198/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with recent updates, offering a move-in-ready living space in a quiet, country setting.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value.
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics.
• Both Install smart home devices — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters, improving convenience and value.
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal, especially at night.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with energy-efficient models — Saves on energy costs and improves aesthetics. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Attracts tech-savvy buyers and renters, improving convenience and value. ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Enhances safety and curb appeal, especially at night. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Walker County
• NCES district ID: 0103450
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $36,664
• Composite: 21.51/100
• National rank: #8321
• State rank: #89 of 129 in AL

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #17152

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,927
• Population (ZIP): 13,505

Population outlook (Walker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,037 people
• By 2030: 58,391 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 53,080 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 48,031 · -21.3%
• By 2075: 37,799 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 29,001 · -52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Walker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+71.8) · D 13.8% · R 85.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -46.4pp · 2024: -71.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+71.8 2020: R+67.9 2016: R+67.4 2012: R+52.9 2008: R+46.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.42%
• Current HPI: 164.0387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+9645.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $134,000 Walker County Area MLS
• 2025-01-31 Rental Removed $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2025-01-06 Price Changed $1,275 APPFOLIO
• 2024-10-22 Listed for Rent $1,375 APPFOLIO