706 Neches St · Lufkin, TX 75901

$119,921

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 878 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 1940 0.47 ac lot ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover charming country living with this inviting 2-bedroom, 1-bath frame home nestled on just under half an acre. Thoughtful updates over the years blend classic character with modern comfort, creating a warm and welcoming space. Major updates provide added peace of mind, including PEX plumbing throughout the entire home and a new hot water heater installed in 2024, a 30-year roof replaced in 2022, and a new HVAC system installed in 2017. Conveniently located just minutes from town, the property offers the perfect balance of accessibility and peaceful country surroundings, providing space, privacy, and room to enjoy the outdoors. Whether you're a first-time homebuyer, looking to downsize

Key facts

• Minutes from town
• Pex plumbing
• 30 year roof

Tags

• HALF AN ACRE
• PEX PLUMBING
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• 30 YEAR ROOF
• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• MINUTES FROM TOWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($638/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Lufkin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#240 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment D-.
• Lufkin ISD (town): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #446 of 826 in TX (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Herty Pri (262 students, 93% FRL); Lufkin Middle (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #717 of 1,662 statewide, top 44%, 1,487 students, 89% FRL); Lufkin H S (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,135 students, 85% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 68% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 297 active listings in the ZIP; 120 units permitted in Angelina County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,635 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,029
• Equity at exit: $17,881

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-9,528
• Equity at exit: $10,369

Cash invested: $33,578 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75901

• Home prices YoY: -16.9%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,116 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,049

Max offer price $119,921

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $136	-5% $95	+0% $53	+5% $12	+10% $-30
Rent	-10% $-35	-5% $9	+0% $53	+5% $97	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $114	-0.5pp $84	base $53	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-10

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,980
• Closing costs: $3,598
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-05
   listed $119,921 Active
3. 2026-03-05
   listed $119,921 Active
4. 2025-12-02
   listed $124,921 Active
5. 2025-11-25
   listed $124,921 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,717
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,072
• − Management: −$1,072
• − Depreciation: −$3,489
• Taxable loss: −$1,352
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $963/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lufkin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828550
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $41,009
• Composite: 32.81/100
• National rank: #5625
• State rank: #446 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lufkin

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #240
• US rank: #5792

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lufkin, TX
• County: Angelina County · 62,696 people
• City population: 62,696
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,234
• Household income: $62,966
• Rent vs Own: 36.5% rent · 63.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 930.0

Population outlook (Angelina County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,174 people
• By 2030: 90,697 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 91,291 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 91,168 · +1.1%
• By 2075: 88,961 · -1.3%
• By 2100: 80,590 · -10.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 21% Black 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 25% Chinese 1% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Angelina

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+52.0) · D 23.7% · R 75.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -35.0pp · 2024: -52.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+52.0 2020: R+46.1 2016: R+47.3 2012: R+43.9 2008: R+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.13%
• Current HPI: 232.6282
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lufkin, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $119,921 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $119,921 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $124,921 Deep East Texas MLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $124,921 Deep East Texas MLS