2851 Mount Troy Rd · Reserve, PA 15212

$42,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,837 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1920 0.61 ac lot $23/sqft · 86% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid, brick ranch featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and 1,614 square feet. The property has a main level bedroom and bathroom and off-street parking and is being sold as-is.

Key facts

• 0.61 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1920

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $37k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shaler Area SD (suburban): math 36% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #208 of 539 in PA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 11 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,996 units permitted in Allegheny County in 2024 (1,588 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $290 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($37k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $42k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $36,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 106.34%
• DSCR: 5.73
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $256,433
• List price: $42,000
• Delta: -83.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1619 Haug St	0.69mi	2/1.5	1,836 (-0%)	2mo	$180,000	$98	66
2375 E Beckert Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,715 (-7%)	1mo	$265,000	$155	64
1339 Romanhoff St	0.55mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,800 (-2%)	2mo	$61,000	$34	63
3226 Spring Gdn	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-7%)	8mo	$149,000	$87	58
1411 Hetzel St	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,952 (+6%)	2mo	$295,000	$151	50
833 Reserve St	0.45mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,632 (-11%)	8mo	$317,900	$195	49
841 Stanton Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,648 (-10%)	11mo	$235,000	$143	47
9 Spring St	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,750 (-5%)	16mo	$150,000	$86	46
1146 S Side Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-6%)	14mo	$260,000	$150	45
419 Kinkura Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,616 (-12%)	15mo	$270,000	$167	45
2100 Rockledge St	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,712 (-7%)	9mo	$236,000	$138	44
130 Royal St	0.74mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,737 (-5%)	18mo	$35,000	$20	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $61,322
• Equity at exit: $6,262

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.43×
• Total profit: $146,216
• Equity at exit: $3,631

Cash invested: $11,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15212

• Home prices YoY: -31.6%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 11
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,687 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$220
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$52 /mo · $630/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $1,042

Break-even live

Break-even rent $367

Max offer price $42,000

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,500
• Closing costs: $1,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
107 Shoup St #2 Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0	2064	$2,000	$0.97	43d	1	0.90mi
1304 Firth St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0	1893	$2,399	$1.27	17d	1	1.05mi
4107 Willow St Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	1.0–2.0	917	$3,334	$3.63	1d	28	1.29mi
147 39th St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,728	$2.92	1d	44	1.30mi
2939 Smallman St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	919	$3,687	$4.01	1d	53	1.42mi
3725 Butler St Pittsburgh, PA	2.0	2.0	1236	$3,899	$3.15	14d	1	1.42mi
2926 Smallman St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	871	$3,650	$4.19	14d	52	1.45mi
2930 Smallman St Pittsburgh, PA	3.0	1.0–2.0	872	$3,650	$4.18	7d	56	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $42,000 Active 181 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $42,000 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 175 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 166 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 165 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 164 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 163 DOM
15. 2025-12-19
    listed $50,000 Active 173-char remark

    Show marketing remark (173 chars)

    Solid, brick ranch featuring 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom and 1,614 square feet. The property has a main level bedroom and bathroom and off-street parking and is being sold as-is.

16. 2024-11-06
    price $63,900 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Explorer the possibilities with this three bedroom brick home in Reserve Township in the Shaler school district. A lot of the hard work has been done for you already and now all you have to do is put in the design you want. Nestled on a peaceful street, this cozy hideaway offers the perfect blend of city excitement and serene relaxation, making it the ideal getaway after a long day. Property being sold as-is.

17. 2024-10-18
    price $68,900 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Explorer the possibilities with this three bedroom brick home in Reserve Township in the Shaler school district. A lot of the hard work has been done for you already and now all you have to do is put in the design you want. Nestled on a peaceful street, this cozy hideaway offers the perfect blend of city excitement and serene relaxation, making it the ideal getaway after a long day. Property being sold as-is.

18. 2024-09-09
    listed $69,900 Active 412-char remark

    Show marketing remark (412 chars)

    Explorer the possibilities with this three bedroom brick home in Reserve Township in the Shaler school district. A lot of the hard work has been done for you already and now all you have to do is put in the design you want. Nestled on a peaceful street, this cozy hideaway offers the perfect blend of city excitement and serene relaxation, making it the ideal getaway after a long day. Property being sold as-is.

19. 1998-12-02
    soldstatus $22,000
20. 1993-11-23
    soldstatus $26,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,353
• − Property taxes: −$630
• − Insurance: −$210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$1,222
• Taxable income: $12,586
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,021
• After-tax cash flow: $9,485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shaler Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221200
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $57,411
• Composite: 41.33/100
• National rank: #3506
• State rank: #208 of 539 in PA

Livability — Reserve

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Allegheny County · 1,022,028 people
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• Population (ZIP): 27,652
• Household income: $64,077
• Rent vs Own: 49.9% rent · 50.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Allegheny County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,250,282 people
• By 2030: 1,256,482 · +0.5%
• By 2040: 1,256,318 · +0.5%
• By 2050: 1,244,169 · -0.5%
• By 2075: 1,197,693 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 1,093,187 · -12.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 25% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Allegheny

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.3) · D 59.7% · R 39.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.8pp toward D · 2008: 15.5pp · 2024: 20.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.3 2020: D+20.4 2016: D+16.4 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+15.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.40%
• Current HPI: 260.4262
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.01%
• Metro: Pittsburgh, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+92.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-19 Listed $50,000 West Penn MLS
• 2024-11-06 Price Changed $63,900 West Penn MLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $68,900 West Penn MLS
• 2024-09-09 Listed $69,900 West Penn MLS
• 1998-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records
• 1993-11-23 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,042 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.