791 Road 5707 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$112,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 113 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot $124/sqft · 8% below area Est $122k · 8% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Listen, I love a project with massive upside, and this 2021-built retreat is the move. Located on a 0.18-acre lot in Cleveland, this home offers a nearly-new structure for your next big opportunity. The interior features an open living area that flows directly into an eat-in kitchen featuring gray cabinetry. You have two bedrooms and one bathroom, providing a solid starting point for your creative vision. The outdoor living is major, featuring a massive front porch. This home is ready for its final transformation. Stop waiting for the perfect deal and build it here.

Key facts

• 2021 built
• 0.18 acre lot
• Open living area

Tags

• 2021 BUILT
• 0.18 ACRE LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GRAY CABINETRY
• MASSIVE FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $112k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $112k).
• Recommended offer: $102k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $774 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 113 days — a 9% lower offer ($102k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,920 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 113 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.49%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $121,678
• List price: $112,000
• Delta: -7.95%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2623 Road 5724	0.21mi	2/2.0	805 (-11%)	8mo	$129,999	$161	62
3169 Road 5711	0.41mi	2/2.0	944 (+5%)	13mo	$125,000	$132	58
3425 Road 5725	0.18mi	2/2.0	808 (-10%)	23mo	$116,990	$145	51
2269 Road 5708	0.72mi	2/1.0	780 (-13%)	3mo	$85,900	$110	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-9,365
• Equity at exit: $16,700

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $6,937
• Equity at exit: $9,684

Cash invested: $31,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,223 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$587
• Tax from tax record: −$202 /mo · $2,420/yr
• Insurance: −$47
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,074

Max offer price $112,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,000
• Closing costs: $3,360
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1192 Road 57071 Cleveland, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$950	$0.95	1d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $112,000 Active 113 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $112,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $112,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $112,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $112,000 Active 108 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $112,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $112,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $112,000 Active 102 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $112,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $112,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $112,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $112,000 Active 96 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $112,000 Active 95 DOM
14. 2026-04-13
    price $112,000 572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (572 chars)

    Listen, I love a project with massive upside, and this 2021-built retreat is the move. Located on a 0.18-acre lot in Cleveland, this home offers a nearly-new structure for your next big opportunity. The interior features an open living area that flows directly into an eat-in kitchen featuring gray cabinetry. You have two bedrooms and one bathroom, providing a solid starting point for your creative vision. The outdoor living is major, featuring a massive front porch. This home is ready for its final transformation. Stop waiting for the perfect deal and build it here.

15. 2026-02-25
    listed $119,000 Active 572-char remark

    Show marketing remark (572 chars)

    Listen, I love a project with massive upside, and this 2021-built retreat is the move. Located on a 0.18-acre lot in Cleveland, this home offers a nearly-new structure for your next big opportunity. The interior features an open living area that flows directly into an eat-in kitchen featuring gray cabinetry. You have two bedrooms and one bathroom, providing a solid starting point for your creative vision. The outdoor living is major, featuring a massive front porch. This home is ready for its final transformation. Stop waiting for the perfect deal and build it here.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,420 · $202/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,675
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,274
• − Property taxes: −$2,420
• − Insurance: −$560
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,174
• − Management: −$1,174
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$3,258
• Taxable loss: −$341
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$82
• After-tax cash flow: $1,491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly-new 2021-built home offers a good condition with a good rehab level, ready for a fresh coat of paint and some minor maintenance to enhance its curb appeal and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Clean gutters improve drainage and prevent water damage, which is important for renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 82,189
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $112,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $119,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+41.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,420 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.