9914 Scrim Ave · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$169,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 1956 0.26 ac lot Est $198k · 14% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3 bedroom 1 full bath , nice coverd front porch, large back yard with deck and shed.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Shed
• Large back yard

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• LARGE BACK YARD
• DECK
• SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: Valley station rd to st.
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1956; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Located in the Mound View Park subdivision; Lot approximately 0.27 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor; Dining area on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the first floor
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $86 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Layne Elementary (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #620 of 676 statewide, top 93%, 379 students, 81% FRL); Stuart Academy (math 4% / reading 17%, grade F, #216 of 217 statewide, top 100%, 1,105 students, 72% FRL); Doss High (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #228 of 254 statewide, top 91%, 939 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 56% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $147,772 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.16%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $198,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9915 West Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+5%)	4mo	$195,000	$186	83
9819 West Ave	0.19mi	3/1.5	1,026 (+3%)	3mo	$147,000	$143	83
4708 Mid Dr	0.10mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+11%)	3mo	$235,000	$212	75
4916 Valley Station Rd	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	960 (-4%)	4mo	$189,000	$197	74
4705 Marcy Ave	0.23mi	3/1.0	925 (-8%)	3mo	$220,000	$238	74
9613 Toledo Ln	0.44mi	3/1.0	950 (-5%)	1mo	$188,000	$198	71
5003 Kendall Rd	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,000 (0%)	4mo	$115,000	$115	66
10602 Millers Ln	0.41mi	3/1.0	925 (-8%)	7mo	$190,000	$205	63
10416 Grafton Hall Rd	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,058 (+6%)	6mo	$200,000	$189	61
4800 Flushing Way	0.58mi	3/1.0	925 (-8%)	2mo	$215,000	$232	58
4210 Tamm Ct	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,113 (+11%)	1mo	$205,000	$184	56
4718 Haney Way	0.74mi	3/1.0	925 (-8%)	2mo	$197,900	$214	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-23,475
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-19,068
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,478 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,439/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,369

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $134	+0% $86	+5% $38	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-31	-5% $27	+0% $86	+5% $144	+10% $202
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $129	base $86	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-3

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5002 Seville Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	900	$1,465	$1.63	18d	1	0.33mi
9708 El Prado St Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,755	$1.25	18d	1	0.36mi
4723 Granada Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	950	$1,410	$1.48	13d	1	0.39mi
4721 Granada Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1010	$1,325	$1.31	12d	1	0.40mi
10200 Renaissance Valley Way Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1102	$1,904	$1.73	3d	29	0.40mi
4701 Palma Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,700	$1.36	18d	1	0.48mi
4816 Andalusia Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	18d	1	0.52mi
4611 Flushing Way Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	925	$1,430	$1.55	25d	1	0.55mi
4700 Hawthorne Place Dr Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	980	$1,124	$1.15	3d	1	0.60mi
5205 Church Rd Unit 101 Louisville, KY	2.0	2.0	933	$1,300	$1.39	23d	1	0.63mi
10303 Torrington Rd Unit 1 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	880	$1,100	$1.25	13d	1	0.72mi
10318 Greentree Ln Unit 10318-2 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,100	$1.29	25d	1	0.75mi
10008 Stonestreet Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1215	$1,640	$1.35	13d	1	0.83mi
10818 Grafton Hall Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,195	$1.20	18d	1	0.85mi
4535 Stonestreet Rd Unit 3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$1,400	$1.87	25d	1	0.93mi
9905 Ponder Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1293	$1,555	$1.20	18d	1	0.93mi
11206 Willowick Ct Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1130	$1,300	$1.15	18d	1	1.02mi
5321 Juanita Ln Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1500	$1,499	$1.00	18d	1	1.04mi
5321 Juanita Ln Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1417	$1,499	$1.06	25d	1	1.04mi
4115 Glen Hill Manor Dr Unit 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$949	$0.86	25d	1	1.11mi
4119 Glen Hill Manor Dr Unit 4 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$949	$0.86	25d	1	1.11mi
4119 Glen Hill Manor Dr Unit 10 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$849	$0.77	25d	1	1.11mi
6001 Reigh Count Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,605	$1.46	22d	1	1.24mi
9207 Fenmore Ave Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,550	$1.03	18d	1	1.26mi
9403 Burgoo King Rd Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1168	$1,685	$1.44	18d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $169,900 Pending 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,900 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $169,900 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $169,900 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $169,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $169,900 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-05-04
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,439 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$22/yr (+$2/mo · 1.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,733
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,439
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,419
• − Management: −$1,419
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$1,852
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$445
• After-tax cash flow: $1,473/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $169,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,439 · +46.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.