15 Sunset Dr · Lime Lake, NY 14042

$78,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1956 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Great Opportunity! Situated on a corner lot in the Town of Machias, this property offers two single-wide mobile homes, a spacious garage, and established landscaping ready for your personal touches. The primary mobile home features 840+/- square feet of living space with 2 bedrooms, 1 full bathroom, and numerous updates throughout. Features include a steel roof, some thermopane windows, Miller forced-air furnace, gas cook stove, hood vent, ceiling fans, laundry area, mud room, and a 6' x 16' addition providing additional living space. Enjoy the covered 7' x 18' front patio or utilize the rear entrance ramp. The home is serviced by a 100-amp circuit breaker panel, one well, and two septic sy

Key facts

• Steel roof
• Spacious garage
• Thermopane windows

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• TWO SINGLE-WIDE MOBILE HOMES
• SPACIOUS GARAGE
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPING
• STEEL ROOF
• THERMOPANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity and garage door opener; 3 garage spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank sewer; Cable available; Electric with circuit breakers and fuses
• Home design: Single-story home; Single wide mobile home; Resale condition
• Construction: Aluminum and vinyl siding; Membrane, metal and rubber roofing; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Private yard; Open patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Gravel driveway; Corner, irregular and secluded residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Gas range; Electric water heater; See remarks for additional kitchen details
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Forced air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Separate/formal living room; Country-style kitchen; Main-level primary bedroom; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($875 rent vs $78k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,109 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment D, schools F, crime F.
• Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District (town): math 50% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #358 of 590 in NY (top 61%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 128 units permitted in Cattaraugus County in 2024 (21 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($543 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cattaraugus County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $78k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.41×
• Total profit: $53,010
• Equity at exit: $70,719

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 7.74×
• Total profit: $148,054
• Equity at exit: $152,508

Cash invested: $21,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14042

• Home prices YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $875 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$412
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,027/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$184
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $671

Max offer price $78,500

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $183	+0% $161	+5% $139	+10% $117
Rent	-10% $92	-5% $126	+0% $161	+5% $195	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $181	base $161	+0.5pp $141	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,625
• Closing costs: $2,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $78,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,500 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,500 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,500 Active 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $78,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,027 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Expected delta: +$150/yr (+$12/mo · 14.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,027
• − Insurance: −$392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$840
• − Management: −$840
• − Depreciation: −$2,284
• Taxable income: $715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$172
• After-tax cash flow: $1,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yorkshire-Pioneer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608970
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $45,735
• Composite: 44.02/100
• National rank: #2885
• State rank: #358 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lime Lake

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1109
• US rank: #22702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lime Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,207

Population outlook (Cattaraugus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,623 people
• By 2030: 67,751 · -5.4%
• By 2040: 59,488 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 51,601 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 35,025 · -51.1%
• By 2100: 21,243 · -70.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 3% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cattaraugus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.8) · D 33.6% · R 66.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.2pp toward R · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -32.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.8 2020: R+29.5 2016: R+34.4 2012: R+13.4 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.20%
• Current HPI: 254.5285
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+106.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $78,500 WNYREIS
• 2007-09-20 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,027 · +8.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.