1114 Cedar Place Ln · Missouri City, TX 77459

$323,590

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,853 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 $92/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Apr 2026! An entertainers dream, the open kitchen and great room of the Mason provide the perfect gathering space for all occasions. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and grey mosiac backsplash, grey tone EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. From the low $300s. Parkway Commons offers a prime location in Missouri City, nestled within the highly regarded Fort Bend ISD. With direct access to Fort Bend Tollway, residents will enjoy premier connectivity to Fort Bend Town Center, a new Amazon distribution hub, and major employment destinations including Downtown Houston, the Texas Medical Center, Sugar Land, and Pearland. Each of our homes i

Key facts

• White cabinets
• Great room
• Open kitchen

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GREAT ROOM
• WHITE CABINETS
• WHITE QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• GREY MOSAIC BACKSPLASH

🏗️ New construction. The $323,590 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $322,422.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $324k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $274k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (22.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (22.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.6% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 35% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1228 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($304k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,484 (22.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $322,422
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1103 Cedar Place Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,853 (0%)	1mo	$327,090	$177	98
1122 Cedar Place Ln	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$310,840	$180	87
1111 Cedar Place Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$288,490	$167	87
1143 Cedar Place Ln	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,727 (-7%)	1mo	$319,640	$185	86
1130 Cedar Place Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,703 (-8%)	1mo	$285,290	$168	84
1131 Cedar Place Ln	0.04mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+7%)	1mo	$326,340	$164	80
4230 Laurel Oak Cir	0.06mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,989 (+7%)	1mo	$329,890	$166	80
1134 Cedar Place Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,604 (-13%)	1mo	$279,490	$174	75
3946 Canyon Shore Ln	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,875 (+1%)	0mo	$330,000	$176	70
2215 Bronze Bay Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5	1,748 (-6%)	1mo	$278,000	$159	69
4123 Chester Bay Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,102 (+13%)	0mo	$394,900	$188	64
2231 Gold Beach Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,016 (+9%)	0mo	$350,000	$174	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-62,386
• Equity at exit: $67,621

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-93,100
• Equity at exit: $62,634

Cash invested: $90,278 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1228
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,515 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,691
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$403 /mo · $4,836/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• HOA: −$92
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,937

Max offer price $274,169

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-222	+0% $-333	+5% $-445	+10% $-556
Rent	-10% $-532	-5% $-433	+0% $-333	+5% $-234	+10% $-135
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-251	base $-333	+0.5pp $-417	+1.0pp $-502

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,606
• Closing costs: $9,673
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	0d	120	0.06mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	21d	1	0.71mi
2707 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	2d	1	0.75mi
2709 Troy Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2082	$2,245	$1.08	21d	1	0.75mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	20d	1	0.92mi
3106 Presley Jane Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2109	$2,271	$1.08	6d	1	0.96mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.97mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	23d	1	0.98mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	44d	1	1.08mi
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	44d	1	1.30mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	44d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $92 · $1,104/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $323,590
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $320,590 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,061
• − Property taxes: −$4,836
• − Insurance: −$1,612
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,414
• − Management: −$2,414
• − HOA: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,380
• Taxable loss: −$9,643
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,687/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $323,590 HARMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $320,590 HARMLS