602 & 604 1st St SE · Stanley, ND 58784

$190,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Other · 89 Days on market

Built 1955

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Key facts

• Two separate units
• Open living areas
• Investment property

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• STRONG INCOME POTENTIAL
• WELL MAINTAINED DUPLEX
• TWO SEPARATE UNITS
• OPEN LIVING AREAS
• WELL EQUIPPED KITCHENS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Duplex residential income property; Single-story
• Exterior features: Public water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Partial unfinished basement; Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Forced air heating (natural gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-103 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (9.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (27.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (27.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#17 in ND, #3,477 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute C-, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Stanley 2 (rural): math 21% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #41 of 53 in ND (top 77%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Stanley Elementary School (math 23% / reading 40%, grade F, #181 of 236 statewide, top 77%, 428 students, 26% FRL); Stanley High School (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #108 of 144 statewide, top 88%, 327 students, 22% FRL).
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Mountrail County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.0% local appreciation)).
• Mountrail County population projected at +118% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $138,053 (27.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.33%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.95% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $25,986
• Equity at exit: $95,786

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $90,140
• Equity at exit: $156,230

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58784

• Home prices YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,381 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,421/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-103

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $171,745

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $4	-5% $-50	+0% $-103	+5% $-157	+10% $-211
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-158	+0% $-103	+5% $-49	+10% $6
Rate	-1.0pp $-8	-0.5pp $-55	base $-103	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $190,000 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $190,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $190,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $190,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $190,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $190,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 72 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 70 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 69 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 68 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active Under Contract 67 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-03-25
    listed $190,000 Active
20. 2016-09-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,421 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,862 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$441/yr (+$37/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,566
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,421
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$4,625
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,110
• After-tax cash flow: $-130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stanley 2
• NCES district ID: 3817570
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,306
• Composite: 26.68/100
• National rank: #7160
• State rank: #41 of 53 in ND

Livability — Stanley

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #3477

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stanley, ND
• Population (ZIP): 2,728

Population outlook (Mountrail County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,354 people
• By 2030: 19,818 · +21.2%
• By 2040: 27,393 · +67.5%
• By 2050: 35,721 · +118.4%
• By 2075: 59,193 · +261.9%
• By 2100: 81,883 · +400.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 26% Scottish 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mountrail

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 27.7% · R 70.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+37.6 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+16.2 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Current HPI: 132.7513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Contingent — MMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $190,000 MMLS
• 2016-09-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,421 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.