13040 Valley Forge Ln N · Champlin, MN 55316

$105,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,633 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1974 10,018 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special! Fire-damaged home with substantial damage to the rear of the property. Strong upside potential for rehab, rebuild, or redevelopment. Located on a desirable lot in an established neighborhood. Property is being sold strictly as-is. Seller makes no warranties regarding condition. Rare opportunity to add significant value.

Key facts

• Desirable lot
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1974

Tags

• DESIRABLE LOT
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 1,600 sq ft (total building area 2,000 sq ft); Above-grade finished area reported as 1,000; below-grade finished area reported as 600; above- and below-grade totals listed as 1,000 each for some fields
• Financial info: Standard rental license in place

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric and natural gas available
• Home design: Residential property; Split entry (bi-level) with two levels; Main/entry level plus lower level
• Construction: Block foundation; Foundation dimensions approximately 40 x 25
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Lot approximately 0.23 acres (80 x 125)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 three-quarter bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Partially finished basement; Split entry (bi-level) layout

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $910 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Cap rate 16.7% vs local median 3.9% in Champlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#4 in MN, #106 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Anoka-Hennepin Public School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #71 of 301 in MN (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 106 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $105,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.12%
• DSCR: 2.65
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $41,044
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $110,858
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55316

• Active inventory: 106
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,266 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,430/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $910

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13470 Linwood Forest Cir Champlin, MN	4.0	3.0	1700	$2,250	$1.32	43d	1	0.55mi
807 Elm Creek Cir Champlin, MN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,950	$1.50	1d	1	0.99mi
2515 Fairoak Ave Anoka, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	950	$1,560	$1.64	2d	18	1.15mi
220 E River Pkwy Champlin, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1079	$3,347	$3.10	1d	14	1.15mi
2901 Cutters Grove Ave Anoka, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1155	$2,365	$2.05	1d	7	1.35mi
1718 2nd Ave Anoka, MN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	16d	1	1.39mi
1718 2nd Ave Anoka, MN	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,850	$1.42	43d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $105,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   remarks 339-char remark
3. 2026-06-10
   listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,430 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$3,430
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,175
• − Management: −$2,175
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $9,945
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,387
• After-tax cash flow: $8,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Anoka-Hennepin Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2703180
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $73,837
• Composite: 46.7/100
• National rank: #2400
• State rank: #71 of 301 in MN

Livability — Champlin

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #106

Category grades

Amenities C Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Champlin, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 23,294
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 23,294
• Household income: $116,102
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 270.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -311.30%
• Current HPI: 229.5956
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+66.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $105,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-15 Rental Removed $2,730 RENTLY
• 2026-02-26 Listed for Rent $2,730 RENTLY
• 2025-08-11 Rental Removed $2,700 RENTLY
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $2,700 RENTLY
• 2025-06-01 Listed for Rent $2,740 RENTLY
• 2022-04-08 Price Changed $2,250 RENT.
• 2021-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $205,000 Public Records
• 1981-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 1980-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $63,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,430 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.