Cook Plan · Midland, TX 79706

$123,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,465 sqft · Manufactured · 391 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious home has a family preferred floor plan maximizes living space and minimizes wasted hallways with master bedroom and ensuite bath privately located away from large guest bedrooms and second bath at opposite end of home, spacious living room open to bright modern kitchen and family size dining area at center of floor plan,

Key facts

• Ensuite bath
• Master bedroom
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• MASTER BEDROOM
• ENSUITE BATH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• FAMILY SIZE DINING AREA

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $124k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $923 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.2% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, commute D+.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 391 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,032 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 391 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.92%
• DSCR: 2.42
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $38,159
• Equity at exit: $18,474

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $106,732
• Equity at exit: $10,713

Cash invested: $34,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79706

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 379
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,252 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$155 /mo · $1,858/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $923

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,084

Max offer price $123,900

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,975
• Closing costs: $3,717
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $123,900 Active 391 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,900 Active 390 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,900 Active 389 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,900 Active 388 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,900 Active 387 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $123,900 Active 385 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,900 Active 384 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $123,900 Active 382 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,900 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $123,900 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $123,900 Active 379 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $123,900 Active 375 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $123,900 Active 374 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $123,900 Active 373 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $123,900 Active 372 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $123,900 Active 371 DOM
17. 2025-05-24
    listed $123,900 Active 336-char remark

    Show marketing remark (336 chars)

    This spacious home has a family preferred floor plan maximizes living space and minimizes wasted hallways with master bedroom and ensuite bath privately located away from large guest bedrooms and second bath at opposite end of home, spacious living room open to bright modern kitchen and family size dining area at center of floor plan,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,022
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,940
• − Property taxes: −$1,858
• − Insurance: −$620
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,162
• − Management: −$2,162
• − Depreciation: −$3,604
• Taxable income: $9,676
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,322
• After-tax cash flow: $8,750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This manufactured home is in excellent condition with a spacious floor plan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's visual appeal and property value.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's visual appeal and property value. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — A well-maintained HVAC system ensures comfort and reduces energy costs. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,281
• Household income: $108,059
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 303.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 44% Two or more races 13% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Swedish 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 30%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.42%
• Current HPI: 212.6467
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.75%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-24 Listed $123,900 Zillow