107 Schooner · Modesto, CA 95356

$129,800

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 100 Days on market

Built 1982 Est $101k · 28% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Shes a Beauty! Step inside this beautifully remodeled home, where all the hard work has already been done, you just get to move in and make it your own. The open floor plan creates a warm, welcoming space, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The modern finishes throughout give this home a crisp, move-in-ready feel. Location is everything here, nestled in North Modesto just off McHenry, you'll be moments away from a movie theater, local eateries, and major shopping. Imagine walking to dinner and a show without ever starting the car! This vibrant community also has so much to offer: relax by the pool and spa, keep fit in the workout room, or enjoy the convenience of the on-site laun

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Workout room
• Movie theater

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN FINISHES
• MOVIE THEATER
• POOL AND SPA
• WORKOUT ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property located at 107 Schooner, Modesto, CA 95356
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Located in a senior community; No land lease (land lease amount listed separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking; Guest parking available
• Utilities: Cable available; Internet available; Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; 220 volts in kitchen; 220 volts in laundry; Public sewer; Public water via water district
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide); Updated / remodeled; Built in 1982
• Construction: Wood skirting; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Patio awning and carport awning; Backyard with fence; Covered patio; Storage / shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Island and stone countertops; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Free-standing electric range; Ice maker (plumbed and/or built-in)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Shower stall(s)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Fireplace(s) and wood stove; Ceiling fan(s); Central cooling
• Interior features: Great room living area; Dual-pane full windows; Covered patio with carpeted porch steps; Storage area / shed(s); Pets allowed with limits
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located inside (laundry closet/inside room); 220 volts available in laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.8% vs local median 3.2% in Modesto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#451 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D+, health & safety D+.
• Sylvan Union Elementary (urban): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #457 of 1,400 in CA (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 145 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $897 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,118 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.56% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.17%
• DSCR: 2.03
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $101,376
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70 Clipper Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,056 (0%)	16mo	$120,000	$114	74
4125 Mchenry Ave #134	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,100 (+4%)	2mo	$115,000	$105	72
4125 Mchenry Ave #43	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	3mo	$65,000	$58	70
4024 Mchenry Ave #26	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	940 (-11%)	2mo	$90,000	$96	70
4125 Mchenry Ave #30	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,080 (+2%)	14mo	$70,000	$65	69
48 Clipper Ln	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+10%)	2mo	$129,000	$111	68
4125 Mchenry Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	7mo	$135,000	$121	66
4125 Mchenry Ave #55	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	7mo	$135,000	$121	65
4125 Mchenry Ave #92	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+6%)	9mo	$45,000	$40	64
4125 McHenry Ave #93	0.35mi	2/2.0	940 (-11%)	2mo	$56,000	$60	61
165 Clipper Ln	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	12mo	$105,000	$88	52
4125 Mchenry Ave #71	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+14%)	9mo	$84,000	$70	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $17,755
• Equity at exit: $19,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $50,209
• Equity at exit: $11,223

Cash invested: $36,344 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95356

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,947/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $129,800

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,450
• Closing costs: $3,894
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
204 Warren Way Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,825	$2.52	14d	4	0.37mi
3509 Dragoo Park Dr Unit 3511 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,899	$1.42	23d	1	0.54mi
939 Claremont Ct Modesto, CA	3.0	2.5	1406	$2,100	$1.49	14d	1	0.69mi
3904 Monteview Dr Unit 1 Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	21d	1	0.86mi
1305 Sylvan Meadows Dr Unit C Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	1037	$2,150	$2.07	14d	1	0.91mi
3104 Sherwood Ave Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	820	$2,071	$2.53	14d	10	0.98mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	951	$1,945	$2.05	21d	1	1.06mi
3400 Coffee Rd Modesto, CA	1.0	1.0	707	$1,645	$2.33	14d	1	1.06mi
204 Emerson Ave Unit A Modesto, CA	3.0	1.0	1252	$2,150	$1.72	23d	1	1.06mi
3701 Colonial Dr #154 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.5	978	$1,950	$1.99	14d	1	1.06mi
2700 Macdougal St #12 Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	858	$1,625	$1.89	21d	1	1.12mi
3445 Colonial Dr Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	918	$2,295	$2.50	14d	10	1.14mi
200 Sheila Ct Modesto, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	841	$1,725	$2.05	14d	1	1.33mi
3401 Tully Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	2.0	1024	$2,095	$2.05	14d	2	1.34mi
1339 E Rumble Rd Modesto, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,800	$1.57	14d	1	1.37mi
2912 Niabell Pl Modesto, CA	3.0	2.0	1470	$2,700	$1.84	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,800 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,800 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,800 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,800 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,800 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $129,800 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $129,800 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,800 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,800 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,800 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,800 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $129,800 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,800 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,800 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,800 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,800 Active 81 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,283
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,271
• − Property taxes: −$1,947
• − Insurance: −$649
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − Depreciation: −$3,776
• Taxable income: $6,755
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,621
• After-tax cash flow: $6,798/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sylvan Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0638670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $61,181
• Composite: 44.28/100
• National rank: #6167
• State rank: #457 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Modesto

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #15229

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute D Cost of living F Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Modesto, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 225,261
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,233
• Household income: $96,886
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 847.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 16% Asian 9% Pacific Islander 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Russian 4% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -374.73%
• Current HPI: 270.6957
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B