4090 Whitetail Cir · Guthrie, OK 73044

$98,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2023 2.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful piece of Land! Don't miss what could be your future home site! Partially wooded but some cleared area. Easy access to I-35. Call today to schedule your showing!

Key facts

• 2.5 acre lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Whisper Glen addition; Property listed as active
• Financial info: Loan-qualifying property; REO / Bank owned; Vacant and unoccupied
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Utilities: No storm shelter indicated
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Northwest-facing
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Composition roof; Conventional foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Interior lot; Mostly gravel roads to property (drive safely)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Four bedrooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: Five living areas; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $695 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 3.0% in Guthrie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#15 in OK, #4,696 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Guthrie (town): math 24% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #119 of 270 in OK (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Guthrie Hs (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #125 of 447 statewide, top 31%, 1,025 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 55% district-wide (55 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+12.2%/yr); 843 active listings in the ZIP; 102 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $98k implies a 180% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,530 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.39%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.37×
• Total profit: $37,599
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $131,682
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73044

• Home prices YoY: -25.9%
• Rents YoY: 12.2%
• Active inventory: 843
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,739 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,494/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $860

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $750	-5% $723	+0% $695	+5% $667	+10% $639
Rent	-10% $557	-5% $626	+0% $695	+5% $764	+10% $832
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $720	base $695	+0.5pp $670	+1.0pp $644

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   listed $98,000 Active
3. 2023-05-26
   soldstatus $35,000 Closed 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Beautiful piece of Land! Don't miss what could be your future home site! Partially wooded but some cleared area. Easy access to I-35. Call today to schedule your showing!

4. 2023-04-19
   status Pending 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Beautiful piece of Land! Don't miss what could be your future home site! Partially wooded but some cleared area. Easy access to I-35. Call today to schedule your showing!

5. 2023-01-25
   listed $38,500 Active 170-char remark

   Show marketing remark (170 chars)

   Beautiful piece of Land! Don't miss what could be your future home site! Partially wooded but some cleared area. Easy access to I-35. Call today to schedule your showing!

6. 2022-12-01
   historical
7. 2022-06-17
   price $38,500
8. 2022-05-23
   listed $40,000 Active
9. 2022-05-01
   historical
10. 2021-09-17
    listed $40,000 Active
11. 2020-11-20
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold
12. 2020-10-20
    status Pending
13. 2020-03-24
    status Active
14. 2020-03-10
    historical
15. 2018-01-15
    listed $25,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,494 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$1,494
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $7,209
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,730
• After-tax cash flow: $6,609/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Guthrie
• NCES district ID: 4013560
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,370
• Composite: 20.79/100
• National rank: #8513
• State rank: #119 of 270 in OK

Livability — Guthrie

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #4696

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Logan County · 25,398 people
• City population: 25,398
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• Population (ZIP): 25,398
• Household income: $72,288
• Rent vs Own: 20.3% rent · 79.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 397.0

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,683 people
• By 2030: 60,011 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 68,071 · +22.2%
• By 2050: 75,815 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 94,749 · +70.2%
• By 2100: 108,057 · +94.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.4% · R 73.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+47.1 2016: R+49.5 2012: R+44.8 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.90%
• Current HPI: 247.9481
• Rent YoY: ▲ 12.22%
• Metro: Oklahoma City, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+292.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — MLSOK
• 2026-04-28 Listed $98,000 MLSOK
• 2023-05-26 Sold (MLS) $35,000 MLSOK
• 2023-04-19 Pending — MLSOK
• 2023-01-25 Listed $38,500 MLSOK
• 2022-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2022-06-17 Price Changed $38,500 MLSOK
• 2022-05-23 Listed $40,000 MLSOK
• 2022-05-01 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2021-09-17 Listed $40,000 MLSOK
• 2020-11-20 Sold (MLS) $25,000 MLSOK
• 2020-10-20 Pending — MLSOK
• 2020-03-24 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2020-03-10 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2018-01-15 Listed $25,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+36.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,494 · +6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.