5751 38th St · Lubbock, TX 79407

$150,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,428 sqft · Townhouse public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1974 2,109 sqft lot $60/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located on a quiet street off the West Loop, this 3/2.5/2 has been remodeled and is truly unique! Updates include fresh paint inside-and-out, new flooring throughout, new water heater, granite counters and sinks in kitchen and bathrooms, and a new roof is coming soon! Rear entry garage with paved alley. Interior atrium. This hidden gem block, Town West, has access to a private pool and park area across the street. HOA takes care of all front mowing. If you are looking for a property with character this is definitely one you want to tour!

Key facts

• $60 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee ($720 / $60 monthly equivalent); Community pool; Community playground; Association-maintained landscaping; Barbecue area

Exterior

• Parking: Attached rear-facing garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse (attached with 2+ common walls); Updated/Remodeled; 2 stories; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Brick veneer and Masonite exterior
• Construction: Built with brick veneer and Masonite; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Barbecue; Playground; Enclosed patio; Front porch; City lot; Paved city streets with public maintenance; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Granite counters; Pantry
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Granite counters; Pantry; Walk-in closets; Double pane windows with window coverings; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup (lower level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($297/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wester El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 371 students, 94% FRL); Irons Middle (math 25% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,036 of 1,662 statewide, top 63%, 815 students, 71% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 60% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 613 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $143,239 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 5% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-26,861
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-37,317
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79407

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 613
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,372/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$60
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,401

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $67	+0% $25	+5% $-18	+10% $-60
Rent	-10% $-88	-5% $-32	+0% $25	+5% $81	+10% $138
Rate	-1.0pp $100	-0.5pp $63	base $25	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5724 36th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,600	$0.94	45d	1	0.18mi
3705 Elkhart Ave Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1507	$1,650	$1.09	23d	1	0.29mi
5604 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,400	$0.97	23d	1	0.39mi
3201 W Loop 289 Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	771	$1,095	$1.42	45d	1	0.43mi
5416 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,295	$0.94	45d	1	0.51mi
5433 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	978	$800	$0.82	45d	1	0.51mi
6104 37th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	950	$780	$0.82	45d	1	0.53mi
6108 37th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	894	$799	$0.89	45d	1	0.56mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	45d	1	0.57mi
6110 36th St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1636	$1,100	$0.67	23d	1	0.60mi
5702 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	809	$1,069	$1.32	15d	27	0.65mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	23d	1	0.65mi
2702 Frankford Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	940	$888	$0.94	45d	1	0.69mi
5440 48th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	3.0	1720	$1,750	$1.02	15d	1	0.73mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	15d	1	0.76mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.84mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	23d	1	0.84mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.85mi
5501 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1125	$1,549	$1.38	15d	7	0.86mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.87mi
5001 Chicago Ave Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	715	$1,019	$1.43	15d	15	0.94mi
5401 50th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1018	$1,099	$1.08	15d	11	0.96mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	0.99mi
5202 Bangor Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1080	$987	$0.91	15d	11	1.02mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	15d	5	1.03mi
5550 56th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	958	$1,260	$1.31	15d	21	1.05mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	15d	2	1.06mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	45d	1	1.08mi
6040 24th St Apt 25 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1795	$1,700	$0.95	23d	1	1.08mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,650	$0.92	45d	1	1.08mi
6040 24th St Unit 16 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1600	$1,699	$1.06	15d	1	1.08mi
6040 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1795	$1,799	$1.00	23d	1	1.08mi
6306 28th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1325	$1,200	$0.91	45d	1	1.08mi
5407 24th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1208	$1,150	$0.95	15d	1	1.09mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,729	$1.02	23d	1	1.11mi
6040 24th St Unit 17 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1700	$1,729	$1.02	45d	1	1.11mi
6040 24th St Unit 33 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1795	$1,600	$0.89	23d	1	1.11mi
6040 24th St Unit 8 Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.5	1699	$1,600	$0.94	45d	1	1.11mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	1.12mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $60 · $720/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $150,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $150,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $154,900 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,900 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $154,900 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,900 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,900 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,900 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,900 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,900 Active 32 DOM
19. 2026-04-29
    listed $159,900 Active 544-char remark
20. 2020-05-29
    soldstatus
21. 2012-12-07
    soldstatus
22. 2002-06-28
    soldstatus
23. 1994-07-01
    soldstatus
24. 1994-04-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,372 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$373/yr (+$31/mo · 15.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$2,372
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,375
• − Management: −$1,375
• − HOA: −$720
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$521
• After-tax cash flow: $818/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,000
• Household income: $61,509
• Rent vs Own: 52.8% rent · 47.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1914.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.87%
• Current HPI: 229.9895
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.07%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $150,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $154,900 LARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $159,900 LARMLS
• 2020-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-06-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,372 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.