417 Oakley Ave · Rockford, IL 61101

$42,500

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily · 70 Days on market

Built 1900 $29/sqft · 27% below area Est $58k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is waiting for your ideas and creativity. The property gutted down to the studs, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a basement, a side drive with a one car garage. Windows and roofing are new. New electrical wiring has been completed. Property is being sold AS-IS-WHERE IS. Seller makes no warranties, no survey, no termite.

Key facts

• New roofing
• New windows
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• NEW ELECTRICAL WIRING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW ROOFING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $42k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $969 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $42k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.6% vs local median 6.1% in Rockford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#876 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Rockford SD 205 (urban): math 12% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #533 of 620 in IL (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 76 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 285 units permitted in Winnebago County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $294 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Winnebago County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $42k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $39,950 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.67%
• DSCR: 5.35
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,856
• List price: $42,500
• Delta: -26.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
417 Oakley Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$38,000	$26	100
410 Oakley Ave	0.03mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,440 (-1%)	5mo	$105,000	$73	84
317 N Central Ave	0.09mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,364 (-6%)	6mo	$112,000	$82	73
2001 School St	0.28mi	4/1.0	1,376 (-6%)	2mo	$117,000	$85	72
718 N Central Ave	0.29mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,432 (-2%)	6mo	$127,840	$89	72
2118 Elm St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-7%)	2mo	$150,000	$111	58
2111 Sherman Ave	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,371 (-6%)	5mo	$56,898	$42	56
707 Royal Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,279 (-12%)	1mo	$87,000	$68	52
1227 Chestnut St	0.49mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,611 (+11%)	3mo	$92,000	$57	50
319 Foster Ave	0.65mi	4/1.5	1,264 (-13%)	2mo	$170,000	$134	44
314 Underwood St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (-14%)	1mo	$65,000	$52	43
2511 Ashland Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,252 (-14%)	5mo	$110,000	$88	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 98.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.61×
• Total profit: $54,809
• Equity at exit: $6,337

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.69×
• Total profit: $127,189
• Equity at exit: $3,675

Cash invested: $11,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61101

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,564 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$223
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $969

Break-even live

Break-even rent $337

Max offer price $42,500

Occupancy floor 33%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,625
• Closing costs: $1,275
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1510 School St Unit 1 Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,200	$0.86	44d	1	0.07mi
418 Orchard Park Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,500	$1.22	13d	1	0.13mi
207 N Central Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1296	$1,500	$1.16	13d	1	0.17mi
210 Irving Ave Rockford, IL	5.0	1.0	1202	$1,850	$1.54	44d	1	0.19mi
2011 School St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	44d	1	0.28mi
303 Forest Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1568	$1,800	$1.15	44d	1	0.32mi
1146 Fairview Ave Rockford, IL	4.0	1.5	1344	$1,250	$0.93	21d	1	0.40mi
2222 Andrews St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	0.41mi
2315 Green St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.0	1290	$1,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.66mi
901 N Horace Ave Rockford, IL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,700	$1.21	13d	1	0.85mi
2916 School St Rockford, IL	3.0	1.5	1578	$2,400	$1.52	44d	1	0.85mi
3016 School St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1090	$1,400	$1.28	44d	1	0.91mi
728 N Winnebago St Rockford, IL	4.0	1.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	13d	1	1.07mi
2330 Kilburn Ave Rockford, IL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,199	$1.26	13d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   listed $42,500 Active 334-char remark

   Show marketing remark (334 chars)

   This property is waiting for your ideas and creativity. The property gutted down to the studs, it has 4 bedrooms, 2 baths, a basement, a side drive with a one car garage. Windows and roofing are new. New electrical wiring has been completed. Property is being sold AS-IS-WHERE IS. Seller makes no warranties, no survey, no termite.

2. 2024-09-25
   soldstatus $20,000 Closed 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

3. 2024-09-11
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

4. 2024-09-07
   price $24,900 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

5. 2024-08-28
   price $31,800 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

6. 2024-08-12
   price $31,900 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

7. 2024-07-19
   price $39,000 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

8. 2024-06-27
   price $52,500 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

9. 2024-06-20
   price $54,500 319-char remark

   Show marketing remark (319 chars)

   Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

10. 2024-06-06
    listed $55,000 Active 319-char remark

    Show marketing remark (319 chars)

    Rehabbers - Here's your summer project! Large 3 bedroom, 2 story Family Home with basement and garage, ready for rehab! Property sold in "As-Is" condition. Seller makes no warranties or offers repair credits. No survey, no termite. Please provide proof of funds with all offers and buyer signed disclosures.

11. 1995-11-29
    soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $639 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$326/yr (+$27/mo · 104.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,381
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$212
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$1,236
• Taxable income: $11,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,788
• After-tax cash flow: $8,834/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rockford SD 205
• NCES district ID: 1734510
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,533
• Composite: 12.21/100
• National rank: #9649
• State rank: #533 of 620 in IL

Livability — Rockford

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #876
• US rank: #17035

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rockford, IL
• County: Winnebago County · 147,297 people
• City population: 147,297
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,318
• Household income: $46,163
• Rent vs Own: 48.6% rent · 51.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1170.0

Population outlook (Winnebago County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 271,080 people
• By 2030: 260,684 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 238,405 · -12.1%
• By 2050: 216,129 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 172,882 · -36.2%
• By 2100: 135,336 · -50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Winnebago

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 49.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 0.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+0.6 2020: D+2.5 2016: R+1.2 2012: D+5.7 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.58%
• Current HPI: 204.8946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rockford, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+165.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Listed $42,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-25 Sold (MLS) $20,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-11 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $24,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $31,800 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-12 Price Changed $31,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-19 Price Changed $39,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-27 Price Changed $52,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $54,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-06 Listed $55,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-11-29 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $312 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.