1609 45th St · Lubbock, TX 79412

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1950 7,950 sqft lot $44/sqft · 66% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors and DIY enthusiasts! This 2 bedroom charter is ready for a complete transformation. This home is blank slate awaiting your personal and creative touch.

Key facts

• 7,950 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); Driveway
• Security: Window bars; See remarks for additional security details
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Masonite construction; Combination foundation; Built on city lot
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Fencing noted in remarks

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Wood window frames
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($858 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hodges El (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 255 students, 98% FRL, charter); Slaton Middle (math 13% / reading 16%, grade F, #1,583 of 1,662 statewide, top 96%, 355 students, 96% FRL); Lubbock H S (math 45% / reading 52%, grade D, #560 of 1,632 statewide, top 35%, 1,839 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 60% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 110 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.9% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.67%
• DSCR: 2.90
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $118,182
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -66.15%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1218 48th St	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,040 (+14%)	13mo	$139,000	$134	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.76×
• Total profit: $19,659
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.73×
• Total profit: $53,009
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79412

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $858 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $640/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$180
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $354

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $421	-5% $410	+0% $398	+5% $387	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $330	-5% $364	+0% $398	+5% $432	+10% $466
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $408	base $398	+0.5pp $388	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1710 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	714	$595	$0.83	14d	1	0.15mi
1717 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	830	$775	$0.93	22d	1	0.21mi
1712 42nd St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	899	$695	$0.77	22d	1	0.29mi
1119 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	704	$595	$0.85	22d	1	0.33mi
1107 45th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	728	$850	$1.17	45d	1	0.39mi
1312 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	940	$795	$0.85	22d	1	0.41mi
1511 52nd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	648	$800	$1.23	45d	1	0.44mi
1317 52nd St Unit C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$650	$0.86	22d	1	0.48mi
1316 53rd St Apt D Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	45d	1	0.50mi
1307 53rd St Unit 1307 C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	755	$695	$0.92	45d	1	0.56mi
2120 47th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$795	$1.00	22d	1	0.57mi
2101 51st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$900	$0.82	22d	1	0.60mi
1101 52nd St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	721	$850	$1.18	22d	1	0.60mi
713 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$750	$0.94	22d	1	0.62mi
705 47th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	22d	1	0.66mi
703 47th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	821	$750	$0.91	22d	1	0.67mi
2108 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	45d	1	0.69mi
1204 36th St Unit b Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$835	$0.96	14d	1	0.69mi
529 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$875	$0.80	14d	1	0.70mi
519 42nd St Apt A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1092	$895	$0.82	14d	1	0.73mi
519 45th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	14d	1	0.73mi
2011 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$800	$0.99	45d	1	0.74mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$699	$0.92	14d	1	0.76mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$799	$1.05	22d	1	0.76mi
5005 Avenue W Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	759	$749	$0.99	45d	1	0.76mi
1610 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	45d	1	0.77mi
1612 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	45d	1	0.77mi
1614 58th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	45d	1	0.77mi
1618 58th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	952	$950	$1.00	45d	1	0.77mi
2302 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	793	$749	$0.94	22d	1	0.79mi
2107 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1025	$800	$0.78	45d	1	0.80mi
2315 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,350	$1.33	22d	1	0.81mi
609 38th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	660	$550	$0.83	45d	1	0.82mi
2304 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,150	$1.39	22d	1	0.83mi
2402 46th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	942	$745	$0.79	22d	1	0.83mi
512 39th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	876	$849	$0.97	14d	1	0.85mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	22d	1	0.85mi
2401 45th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	680	$845	$1.24	14d	3	0.85mi
2103 33rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1075	$700	$0.65	14d	1	0.87mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	22d	1	0.88mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 31 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $40,000 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $43,000 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $43,000 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $43,000 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $43,000 Active 24 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $43,000 Active 23 DOM
17. 2026-05-17
    price $43,000 173-char remark
18. 2026-05-08
    price $48,000 173-char remark
19. 2026-05-07
    listed $53,000 Active 173-char remark
20. 2026-04-06
    soldstatus
21. 2001-02-07
    soldstatus
22. 1993-01-01
    soldstatus
23. 1986-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $640 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$92/yr (+$8/mo · 14.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,300
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$640
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$824
• − Management: −$824
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $4,407
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,058
• After-tax cash flow: $3,722/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,018
• Household income: $48,878
• Rent vs Own: 51.2% rent · 48.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 676.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 61% Two or more races 25% White 25% Black 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.95%
• Current HPI: 188.4033
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.87%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $40,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $43,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $48,000 LARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $53,000 LARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $640 · -2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.