2700 S Lincoln Ave · Jerome, IL 62704

$172,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1959 8,100 sqft lot Est $218k · 21% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.7/5.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom ranch with full finished basement and detached 1.5 car garage is priced to sell! Home features hardwood floors, fresh paint, stove, refrigerator and dishwasher. Basement has large family room and two extra rooms. Updated roof, siding, additional parking and conveniently located just west of MacArthur. Inspections are welcome but home is sold as-is.

Key facts

• 8,100 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1959

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 93/100 on livability (#1 in IL, #17 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Springfield SD 186 (urban): math 17% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #438 of 620 in IL (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.3%/yr); 177 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 225 units permitted in Sangamon County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sangamon County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $172k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $172,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.20%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2700 S Lincoln Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	2,000 (0%)	0mo	$172,000	$86	100
1420 Cherry Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,968 (-2%)	6mo	$247,500	$126	70
1129 Urban Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,852 (-7%)	4mo	$173,000	$93	69
3025 S Lincoln Ave	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,835 (-8%)	2mo	$200,000	$109	64
1101 W Maple Avenue South	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,733 (-13%)	1mo	$210,000	$121	63
1101 W Maple Avenue South	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,733 (-13%)	5mo	$157,000	$91	60
6 Wildwood Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	2,070 (+4%)	8mo	$265,000	$128	59
2020 S Glenwood Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	2,074 (+4%)	6mo	$260,000	$125	57
2136 S State St	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,882 (-6%)	6mo	$169,900	$90	56
1928 S Park Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,935 (-3%)	7mo	$235,000	$121	53
1705 Reed Ave	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-10%)	2mo	$177,000	$98	46
2513 S Pasfield St	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,769 (-12%)	1mo	$174,000	$98	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,156
• Equity at exit: $25,646

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $30,335
• Equity at exit: $14,871

Cash invested: $48,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62704

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 177
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax from tax record: −$217 /mo · $2,607/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,507

Max offer price $172,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,000
• Closing costs: $5,160
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1666 Seven Pines Rd Springfield, IL	1.0–4.0	1.0–1.5	1025	$1,383	$1.35	21d	1	0.90mi
2 Robinhood Ln Springfield, IL	3.0	2.5	2400	$2,495	$1.04	21d	1	1.03mi
1933 S 2nd St Springfield, IL	4.0	2.0	1433	$1,400	$0.98	43d	1	1.19mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-21
   historical
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $172,000
3. 2021-08-06
   historical
4. 2017-12-22
   soldstatus $69,000
5. 2017-12-21
   soldstatus $69,000 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom ranch with full finished basement and detached 1.5 car garage is priced to sell! Home features hardwood floors, fresh paint, stove, refrigerator and dishwasher. Basement has large family room and two extra rooms. Updated roof, siding, additional parking and conveniently located just west of MacArthur. Inspections are welcome but home is sold as-is.

6. 2017-08-25
   listed $69,900 377-char remark

   Show marketing remark (377 chars)

   This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom ranch with full finished basement and detached 1.5 car garage is priced to sell! Home features hardwood floors, fresh paint, stove, refrigerator and dishwasher. Basement has large family room and two extra rooms. Updated roof, siding, additional parking and conveniently located just west of MacArthur. Inspections are welcome but home is sold as-is.

7. 2008-08-18
   soldstatus $59,500
8. 2008-08-08
   soldstatus $59,500
9. 2008-07-01
   listed $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,256 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$649/yr (+$54/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,635
• − Property taxes: −$2,607
• − Insurance: −$860
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$5,004
• Taxable loss: −$757
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $2,207/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield SD 186
• NCES district ID: 1737080
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,744
• Composite: 16.89/100
• National rank: #9142
• State rank: #438 of 620 in IL

Livability — Jerome

• Score: 93/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #17

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sangamon County · 115,414 people
• City population: 59,955
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• Population (ZIP): 40,046
• Household income: $69,976
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1529.0

Population outlook (Sangamon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 198,317 people
• By 2030: 196,127 · -1.1%
• By 2040: 188,664 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 179,624 · -9.4%
• By 2075: 155,027 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 122,588 · -38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 15% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sangamon

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.6% · R 51.6% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.4pp · 2024: -5.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.0 2020: R+4.4 2016: R+9.4 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+4.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.79%
• Current HPI: 156.7086
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.32%
• Metro: Springfield, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+160.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Listed $172,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records
• 2017-12-21 Sold (MLS) $69,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-25 Listed $69,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $59,500 Public Records
• 2008-08-08 Sold (MLS) $59,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-01 Listed $66,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,607 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.