3805 College St SE #4 · Lacey, WA 98503

$98,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 12 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable living in a highly convenient Southeast Olympia location! This 3-bedroom, 1.75-bath double-wide manufactured home offers comfortable living with an unbeatable location just off College Street in Lacey. The home features a functional floor plan, a newer roof installed just three years ago, and a storage shed for additional space. One of the standout features of this property is its accessibility. Located along Intercity Transit Route 64, residents enjoy easy connections to downtown Olympia, the Olympia Transit Center, and the Amtrak station—making commuting or regional travel simple and convenient. Outdoor and recreational opportunities are nearby as well. The home is just m

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986
• Listed 12 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $98k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $98k).
• Cap rate 19.7% vs local median 3.0% in Lacey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#33 in WA, #581 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D+.
• North Thurston Public Schools (suburban): math 51% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #80 of 291 in WA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (625 students, 65% FRL); Komachin Middle School (643 students, 50% FRL); North Thurston High School (1,440 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 31% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $678 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $98k implies a 292% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $98,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 47.81%
• DSCR: 3.13
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,144
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4406 35th Ave SE	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-1%)	4mo	$385,000	$313	86
3503 Lakecrest St SE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+1%)	12mo	$381,000	$303	83
4401 37th Ave SE #19	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+4%)	8mo	$150,000	$116	82
4333 Lakeview Ct SE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-10%)	6mo	$365,000	$326	72
4420 36th Ct SE	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (0%)	22mo	$365,000	$292	72
4291 Lakeview Ln SE #5	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+12%)	11mo	$330,000	$235	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $54,972
• Equity at exit: $14,612

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.20×
• Total profit: $142,604
• Equity at exit: $8,473

Cash invested: $27,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98503

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,166 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$514
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $757/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $1,093

Break-even live

Break-even rent $782

Max offer price $98,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,149	-5% $1,121	+0% $1,093	+5% $1,065	+10% $1,038
Rent	-10% $922	-5% $1,008	+0% $1,093	+5% $1,179	+10% $1,264
Rate	-1.0pp $1,143	-0.5pp $1,118	base $1,093	+0.5pp $1,068	+1.0pp $1,042

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,500
• Closing costs: $2,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3307 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	865	$1,700	$1.97	15d	3	0.26mi
3301 College St SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,845	$2.05	22d	1	0.31mi
4625 45th Ave SE Lacey, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	975	$2,485	$2.55	15d	21	0.49mi
4950 51st Ln SE Unit F-201 Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	975	$1,650	$1.69	22d	1	0.82mi
4435 Ruddell Rd SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	856	$2,000	$2.34	15d	1	0.91mi
5649 46th Ln SE Lacey, WA	3.0	3.0	1100	$2,300	$2.09	22d	1	0.94mi
2700 Ruddell Rd SE Unit 2740-B Lacey, WA	2.0	1.5	1054	$1,695	$1.61	45d	1	1.03mi
5701 30th Ave SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	899	$1,503	$1.67	15d	2	1.04mi
5216 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,595	$1.91	15d	1	1.24mi
5301 Ivy Hill Ln SE Lacey, WA	2.0	2.0	1361	$2,495	$1.83	45d	1	1.24mi
3539 Landview Dr SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1314	$2,895	$2.20	15d	19	1.24mi
3425 Polo Club Ln SE Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,329	$2.49	15d	9	1.38mi
3622 57th Ln SE Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,999	$1.73	15d	1	1.39mi
4314 14th Way SE Lacey, WA	2.0	1.0	938	$2,500	$2.67	45d	1	1.43mi
1606 Sulky Dr SE Lacey, WA	3.0	1.5	1319	$2,495	$1.89	22d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $98,000 Active
3. 2000-10-20
   soldstatus $25,000
4. 2000-07-21
   listed $30,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $757 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $960 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$203/yr (+$17/mo · 26.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,992
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,490
• − Property taxes: −$757
• − Insurance: −$490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,079
• − Management: −$2,079
• − Depreciation: −$2,851
• Taxable income: $12,245
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,939
• After-tax cash flow: $10,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Thurston Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 5305850
• Math proficiency: 51% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,338
• Composite: 51.09/100
• National rank: #3798
• State rank: #80 of 291 in WA

Livability — Lacey

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #581

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lacey, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 108,850
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 41,656
• Household income: $89,002
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2195.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Asian 7% Black 5% Pacific Islander 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -385.93%
• Current HPI: 361.0974
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.56%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+221.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $98,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-10-20 Sold (MLS) $25,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-21 Listed $30,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2026): $757 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.