40549 W Helen Ct · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$310,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 78 Days on market

Built 2019 4,001 sqft lot $160/sqft · 12% below area Est $354k · 12% under $132/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move in ready home for sale Maricopa Arizona. Still feeling brand new, this energy efficient home is modern, low maintenance & features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with a spacious loft for a total of 1945 square feet. An open-concept floor plan with a sizable living area, modern kitchen & large pantry. There is ample space in the loft to make a separate room. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet & a primary restroom that has a separate tub & shower & dual sinks. Neutral paint and tile throughout. All appliances convey. The community of Smith Farms - Desert Passage features a community pool, basketball & volleyball courts, baseball & soccer field, tot lots and walking paths with views. Close to retail & dining.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Large pantry
• Basketball courts

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE PANTRY
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS
• VOLLEYBALL COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-457 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (26.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (34.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 860 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($292k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,985 (34.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.30%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,005
• List price: $310,900
• Delta: -12.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
40573 W Helen Ct	0.02mi	3/2.5	1,946 (+0%)	3mo	$307,000	$158	97
40368 W Peggy Ct	0.13mi	3/2.5	2,046 (+5%)	3mo	$285,000	$139	82
40885 W Portis Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,871 (-4%)	1mo	$332,500	$178	79
40998 W Tamara Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,871 (-4%)	4mo	$332,000	$177	76
18264 N Hoskin Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,871 (-4%)	3mo	$310,000	$166	74
41054 W Portis Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,870 (-4%)	2mo	$310,000	$166	73
18481 N Cook Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,831 (-6%)	4mo	$329,000	$180	65
18236 N Jameson Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,867 (-4%)	2mo	$282,000	$151	64
40136 W Catherine Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,705 (-12%)	3mo	$330,000	$194	62
41335 W Almira Dr	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,973 (+1%)	1mo	$375,000	$190	59
41331 W Centennial Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-5%)	2mo	$350,000	$189	57
41385 W Centennial Dr	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,100 (+8%)	0mo	$399,900	$190	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-53,445
• Equity at exit: $76,727

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-67,039
• Equity at exit: $82,008

Cash invested: $87,052 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 860
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,030 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,630
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,028/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$132
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,609

Max offer price $230,106

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-281	-5% $-369	+0% $-457	+5% $-545	+10% $-633
Rent	-10% $-618	-5% $-538	+0% $-457	+5% $-377	+10% $-297
Rate	-1.0pp $-301	-0.5pp $-378	base $-457	+0.5pp $-538	+1.0pp $-620

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,725
• Closing costs: $9,327
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40584 W Helen Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1940	$2,300	$1.19	5d	1	0.03mi
40404 W Molly Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	1803	$1,695	$0.94	45d	1	0.24mi
40250 W Green Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1682	$2,395	$1.42	45d	1	0.31mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1878	$1,699	$0.90	6d	1	0.40mi
40086 W Bonneau St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1878	$1,729	$0.92	18d	1	0.40mi
41177 W Lucera Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1838	$1,875	$1.02	6d	1	0.45mi
39695 W Lococo St Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	2.0	1133	$1,540	$1.36	0d	24	0.51mi
41342 W Capistrano Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2201	$1,800	$0.82	6d	1	0.52mi
17485 N Porter Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	942	$1,399	$1.48	0d	17	0.71mi
18184 N Calacera St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1603	$1,795	$1.12	18d	1	0.93mi
42584 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy Maricopa, AZ	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$1,723	$1.51	0d	60	1.03mi
40481 W Jenna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1819	$1,785	$0.98	0d	1	1.08mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	45d	1	1.11mi
42275 W Calle St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1807	$2,050	$1.13	5d	1	1.11mi
19488 N Falcon Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1836	$2,300	$1.25	12d	1	1.12mi
42246 W Balsa Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1585	$1,679	$1.06	45d	1	1.14mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	25d	1	1.19mi
42381 W Mira Ct Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1584	$1,795	$1.13	45d	1	1.19mi
41932 W Manderas Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1553	$1,850	$1.19	25d	1	1.19mi
42495 W Monteverde Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1484	$2,500	$1.68	45d	1	1.22mi
19165 N Ventana Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,650	$1.15	25d	1	1.26mi
41363 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,739	$1.09	45d	1	1.26mi
18426 N Lariat Rd Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2567	$1,995	$0.78	45d	1	1.29mi
39941 W Williams Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,600	$1.24	25d	1	1.29mi
42725 W Martie Lynn Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1509	$2,015	$1.34	25d	1	1.33mi
41094 W Somers Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,850	$1.15	3d	1	1.34mi
41057 W Ganley Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	1908	$1,925	$1.01	0d	1	1.36mi
20392 N Mac Neil St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1552	$1,656	$1.07	0d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $132 · $1,584/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $310,900 Pending 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $310,900 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $310,900 Active 76 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $310,900 Active 75 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $310,900 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $310,900 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   status Active 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Move in ready home for sale Maricopa Arizona. Still feeling brand new, this energy efficient home is modern, low maintenance & features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with a spacious loft for a total of 1945 square feet. An open-concept floor plan with a sizable living area, modern kitchen & large pantry. There is ample space in the loft to make a separate room. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet & a primary restroom that has a separate tub & shower & dual sinks. Neutral paint and tile throughout. All appliances convey. The community of Smith Farms - Desert Passage features a community pool, basketball & volleyball courts, baseball & soccer field, tot lots and walking paths with views. Close to retail & dining.

8. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Move in ready home for sale Maricopa Arizona. Still feeling brand new, this energy efficient home is modern, low maintenance & features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with a spacious loft for a total of 1945 square feet. An open-concept floor plan with a sizable living area, modern kitchen & large pantry. There is ample space in the loft to make a separate room. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet & a primary restroom that has a separate tub & shower & dual sinks. Neutral paint and tile throughout. All appliances convey. The community of Smith Farms - Desert Passage features a community pool, basketball & volleyball courts, baseball & soccer field, tot lots and walking paths with views. Close to retail & dining.

9. 2026-04-27
   price $310,900 767-char remark

   Show marketing remark (767 chars)

   Move in ready home for sale Maricopa Arizona. Still feeling brand new, this energy efficient home is modern, low maintenance & features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with a spacious loft for a total of 1945 square feet. An open-concept floor plan with a sizable living area, modern kitchen & large pantry. There is ample space in the loft to make a separate room. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet & a primary restroom that has a separate tub & shower & dual sinks. Neutral paint and tile throughout. All appliances convey. The community of Smith Farms - Desert Passage features a community pool, basketball & volleyball courts, baseball & soccer field, tot lots and walking paths with views. Close to retail & dining.

10. 2026-03-12
    listed $319,000 Active 767-char remark

    Show marketing remark (767 chars)

    Move in ready home for sale Maricopa Arizona. Still feeling brand new, this energy efficient home is modern, low maintenance & features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths with a spacious loft for a total of 1945 square feet. An open-concept floor plan with a sizable living area, modern kitchen & large pantry. There is ample space in the loft to make a separate room. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet & a primary restroom that has a separate tub & shower & dual sinks. Neutral paint and tile throughout. All appliances convey. The community of Smith Farms - Desert Passage features a community pool, basketball & volleyball courts, baseball & soccer field, tot lots and walking paths with views. Close to retail & dining.

11. 2025-12-14
    historical
12. 2025-09-23
    price $339,000
13. 2025-08-06
    listed $344,900 Active
14. 2005-06-07
    soldstatus $1,044,454

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,028 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,052 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$24/yr (+$2/mo · 1.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,415
• − Property taxes: −$2,028
• − Insurance: −$1,554
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − HOA: −$1,584
• − Depreciation: −$9,044
• Taxable loss: −$11,165
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,680
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-70.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2026-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $310,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Listed $319,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $339,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $344,900 ARMLS
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $1,044,454 Public Records

Property tax history

+44.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,028 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.