13214 Captain Cir · Conroe, TX 77318

$128,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2014 4,024 sqft lot $106/sqft · 64% above area $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Immaculate, home in the Lake Conroe Community of Shadow Bay. This home showcases an open floor plan that seamlessly combines living, kitchen and dining spaces perfect for entertaining. The kitchen boasts an abundance of cabinetry, black upgraded appliances, refrigerator and an additional built-in storage in the dining area. The primary suite includes a spacious bedroom, generous walk in closet and spa like bathroom with an over sized shower and soaking tub. Enjoy Lake Conroe access and all the Shadow Bay amenities including Social clubs, Sports courts, Parks, Picnic Areas, Fishing pier, Boat launch, and a Community Center available for all your social events, and Parties. Affordable living

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Spa like bathroom
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• ABUNDANCE OF CABINETRY
• BLACK UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• BUILT-IN STORAGE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• SPA LIKE BATHROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• HOA & community: Association: Shadow Bay/IMC Property Management; Annual association fee of $275; Association amenities include clubhouse, boat ramp, sport court, picnic area, playground and park; Association fee covers clubhouse, common areas and recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; No covered garage indicated
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Single‑story (all listed rooms on first floor); Facing direction: not specified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2014
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Cul‑de‑sac lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Free‑standing range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor, approx. 13 x 13); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 11 x 12); Bedroom (First floor, approx. 10 x 10); Home described with 3 possible bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Jetted tub; Separate shower; Kitchen/Family room combo; Kitchen/Dining combo; Laminate counters
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room (First floor, approx. 5 x 7)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $125k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1189 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($125k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,120 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.33%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $78,500
• List price: $128,990
• Delta: 64.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13712 Lookout Ct	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-5%)	5mo	$70,000	$61	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $21,445
• Equity at exit: $19,233

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $57,229
• Equity at exit: $11,153

Cash invested: $36,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1189
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$170 /mo · $2,046/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $128,990

Occupancy floor 59%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,248
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14156 Shadow Bay Dr Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,195	$1.53	1d	1	0.13mi
14214 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,950	$1.62	44d	1	0.81mi
14190 Green Wing Cir Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.82mi
9743 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,350	$1.35	3d	1	1.45mi
9745 Black Gum Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,300	$1.30	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,990 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,990 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,990 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,990 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,990 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,990 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $128,990 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $128,990 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,990 Active 39 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,990 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,990 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-04-24
    listed $128,990 Active 941-char remark
15. 2017-11-14
    soldstatus
16. 2017-09-08
    historical
17. 2017-08-01
    price $85,000
18. 2017-05-19
    price $99,500
19. 2017-04-01
    listed $119,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,046 · $170/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,361 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 15.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,225
• − Property taxes: −$2,046
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$3,752
• Taxable income: $7,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,816
• After-tax cash flow: $7,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+8.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $128,990 HARMLS
• 2017-11-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-09-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2017-08-01 Price Changed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2017-05-19 Price Changed $99,500 HARMLS
• 2017-04-01 Listed $119,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,046 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.