Venus Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$293,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,523 sqft · SingleFamily · 562 Days on market

Excellent condition ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enter through the porch into the entryway and be greeted by the spacious kitchen, dining, and living area. This space is complemented by a back patio accessible from the dining area. Proceed to the bedroom quarters located at the front of the home, where you will find two bedrooms featuring generous walk-in closets, followed by a full bathroom. On the opposite side of the kitchen and dining space, you'll discover an additional hallway that leads to the primary bedroom and bathroom. This room boasts two large windows that let in plenty of natural light, and the primary bathroom includes a large walk-in closet. Additionally, you will find the utility room in the hallway, which is equipped with a washer and dryer.

Key facts

• Utility room
• Spacious kitchen
• Walk-in closets

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• BACK PATIO
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• PRIMARY BEDROOM
• UTILITY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $293,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $300,679.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $294k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-270 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 2.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Marcy B Lykins El (math 38% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,243 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 708 students, 22% FRL); Jerry & Linda Moore Middle (math 56% / reading 60%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 903 students, 20% FRL); Celina H S (math 44% / reading 72%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,074 students, 18% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 3407 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 71d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($168k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 562 days — a 12% lower offer ($259k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $228,863 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 562 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.85%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $300,679
• List price: $293,990
• Delta: -2.22%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3112 Winecup Rd	0.86mi	3/2.5	1,518 (-0%)	0mo	$329,510	$217	62
3216 Landslide Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,817 (+19%)	6mo	$264,990	$146	62
3309 Little Bluestem Rd	1.04mi	3/2.5	1,518 (-0%)	1mo	$332,160	$219	61
105 North Sky Dr	1.06mi	3/2.5	1,518 (-0%)	3mo	$330,470	$218	60
116 North Sky Dr	1.05mi	3/2.5	1,518 (-0%)	5mo	$350,920	$231	58
129 Tornillo Dr	1.02mi	3/2.5	1,518 (-0%)	6mo	$338,990	$223	58
3104 Winecup Rd	0.86mi	3/2.5	1,698 (+12%)	2mo	$339,480	$200	42
105 Tornillo Dr	1.07mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+11%)	3mo	$321,590	$190	42
121 Tornillo Dr	1.04mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+11%)	3mo	$323,125	$191	42
3120 Winecup Rd	0.87mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-14%)	1mo	$313,810	$240	40
128 North Sky Dr	1.02mi	3/2.5	1,693 (+11%)	5mo	$364,190	$215	40
113 Tornillo Dr	1.05mi	3/2.5	1,305 (-14%)	8mo	$331,900	$254	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-72,586
• Equity at exit: $44,832

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-111,122
• Equity at exit: $25,997

Cash invested: $84,190 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 17 active · 3 under contract
• Months of supply: 17.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,000 ($193/sqft)
• Median days on market: 199 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +2.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 3407
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,289 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,577
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$376 /mo · $4,510/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-270

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,630

Max offer price $261,623

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-62	-5% $-166	+0% $-270	+5% $-374	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-451	-5% $-360	+0% $-270	+5% $-180	+10% $-89
Rate	-1.0pp $-118	-0.5pp $-193	base $-270	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,170
• Closing costs: $9,020
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3220 Dillonwood St Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2046	$2,099	$1.03	92d	1	0.06mi
3116 Winecup Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1882	$2,500	$1.33	64d	1	0.88mi
3301 Little Bluestem Rd Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1907	$2,399	$1.26	33d	1	1.06mi
121 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1693	$2,449	$1.45	92d	1	1.06mi
109 Tornillo Dr Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1518	$2,300	$1.52	73d	1	1.08mi
100 Barn Swallow Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	1949	$2,400	$1.23	71d	1	1.12mi
17405 W FM 455 Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2078	$3,500	$1.68	0d	1	1.26mi
2417 Blackwell St Celina, TX	4.0	2.5	2098	$3,100	$1.48	0d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $293,990 Active 562 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $293,990 Active 560 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $293,990 Active 559 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $293,990 Active 558 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $293,990 Active 557 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $293,990 Active 554 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $293,990 Active 553 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $293,990 Active 552 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   pricedays on market $293,990 Active 551 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $290,990 Active 549 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $290,990 Active 547 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $290,990 Active 546 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $290,990 Active 545 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $290,990 Active 544 DOM
15. 2026-07-20
    days on market $290,990 Active 543 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,990 Active 541 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $290,990 Active 540 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $290,990 Active 539 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $290,990 Active 538 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $290,990 Active 537 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,990 Active 536 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $290,990 Active 535 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $290,990 Active 534 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $290,990 Active 533 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $290,990 Active 532 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $290,990 Active 530 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,990 Active 529 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $290,990 Active 528 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $290,990 Active 527 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 526 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $290,990 Active 525 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $290,990 Active 524 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $290,990 Active 523 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $290,990 Active 522 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $290,990 Active 521 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $290,990 Active 520 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $290,990 Active 519 DOM
38. 2026-06-24
    days on market $290,990 Active 517 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $290,990 Active 515 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $290,990 Active 514 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $290,990 Active 511 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $290,990 Active 510 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $290,990 Active 509 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $290,990 Active 508 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $290,990 Active 506 DOM
46. 2026-06-09
    days on market $290,990 Active 502 DOM
47. 2026-06-08
    days on market $290,990 Active 501 DOM
48. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,990 Active 500 DOM
49. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,990 Active 497 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,990 Active 496 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,464
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,843
• − Property taxes: −$4,510
• − Insurance: −$1,503
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,197
• − Management: −$2,197
• − Depreciation: −$8,747
• Taxable loss: −$8,534
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,048
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 7 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This Venus Plan home in Celina, TX is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Marcy B Lykins El F TX #1,243/4,322 Nat'l #17,190/41,679 Middle Jerry & Linda Moore Middle B TX #197/1,662 Nat'l #2,084/14,009 High Celina H S C TX #320/1,632 Nat'l #3,986/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,210,074 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 25% of renters

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Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $290,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $292,490 Zillow
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $288,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $298,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-07 Price Changed $318,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-06 Price Changed $325,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $360,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $325,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-17 Price Changed $335,990 Zillow
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $340,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-23 Listed $360,990 Zillow