18 Nuevo Leon Rd · Port St. Lucie, FL 34952

$129,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured · 163 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $148k · 13% under ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy sunsets sitting on your back patio overlooking the lake! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home was built in 2005 and has been lovingly cared for by the same owner. Large living room and den both makes entertaining a breeze! And speaking of breezes, check out the Florida room with lots of windows for those perfect cooler evenings. Must see! Call for your showing today!

Key facts

• 4 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2005

Tags

• BACK PATIO OVERLOOKING LAKE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with breed and size restrictions
• HOA & community: Community amenities: golf course, pool, pickleball court(s); Has association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space); 1 covered parking space; 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Three-phase electric; Sewer available; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Faces east; Resale
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Mobile home dimensions approximately 60' x 28'
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Open patio; Patio; Shed(s); Waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen island; Fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $776 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $129k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 3.9% in Port St. Lucie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Savanna Ridge Elementary School (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,383 of 2,144 statewide, top 65%, 452 students, 75% FRL); Port St. Lucie High School (math 21% / reading 43%, grade F, #415 of 667 statewide, top 63%, 1,748 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 639 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 163 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 163 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.79%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $147,840
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Nuevo Leon Rd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-11%)	19mo	$69,000	$46	66
172 W Carribean	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-2%)	8mo	$9,500	$6	65
3720 Pebble Bch	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,608 (-4%)	3mo	$225,000	$140	60
8522 Leadtree Ct	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,550 (-8%)	15mo	$245,000	$158	59
29 San Marino Way	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-13%)	20mo	$22,000	$15	43
8483 Labelia Ct	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (-13%)	16mo	$265,000	$182	43
3700 Westchester Ct	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,480 (-12%)	8mo	$130,000	$88	42
166 W West Caribbean	0.40mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (-14%)	14mo	$38,000	$26	42
8380 Gallberry Cir	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-9%)	15mo	$278,000	$182	39
7 Indies	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,468 (-13%)	24mo	$33,000	$22	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.73×
• Total profit: $26,291
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $77,562
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34952

• Home prices YoY: -29.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,111 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,935/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $776

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,128

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $865	-5% $821	+0% $776	+5% $732	+10% $687
Rent	-10% $609	-5% $693	+0% $776	+5% $860	+10% $943
Rate	-1.0pp $841	-0.5pp $809	base $776	+0.5pp $743	+1.0pp $709

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
71 W Caribbean Port St. Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1417	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.23mi
1811 SE Walton Lakes Dr Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,926	$1.72	14d	6	0.45mi
3784 Sapodilla Ct Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,300	$2.05	24d	1	0.49mi
2082 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1524	$1,850	$1.21	24d	1	0.49mi
2058 SE Wild Meadow Cir #101 Port St Lucie, FL	2.0	2.5	1425	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.50mi
2183 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1550	$1,900	$1.23	14d	1	0.54mi
2130 SE Wild Meadow Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	2.0	2.0	1440	$1,695	$1.18	14d	1	0.55mi
1810 SE Pinewood Trl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1013	$2,055	$2.03	14d	7	0.66mi
2209 SE East Dunbrooke Cir Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$2,950	$2.43	14d	1	0.66mi
1900 Bella Vista Way Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	995	$1,764	$1.77	14d	15	0.85mi
1500 SE Tiffany Club Pl Port Saint Lucie, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	895	$2,139	$2.39	14d	7	0.98mi
1618 SE Elkhart Ter Port Saint Lucie, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$2,200	$1.87	24d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $129,000 Active 163 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $129,000 Active 162 DOM
3. 2026-04-11
   price $129,000
4. 2026-03-12
   price $135,000
5. 2025-12-15
   listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,331
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$1,935
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $7,719
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,853
• After-tax cash flow: $7,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Port St. Lucie

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Port St. Lucie, FL
• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• City population: 221,051
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,655
• Household income: $61,628
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1759.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.80%
• Current HPI: 371.0573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $129,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $135,000 Beaches MLS
• 2025-12-15 Listed $149,900 Beaches MLS