16101 N El Mirage Rd #327 · El Mirage, AZ 85335

$87,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 128 Days on market

Built 2006 Fair condition $55/sqft · 8% below area Est $94k · 8% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**THE ULTIMATE COMMUNITY EXPERIENCE** Large pool, pickle-ball courts, pool room, exercise facility, multiple clubs, and regular activities... THIS is the community you want to be a part of! **Motivated Seller** **POTENTIAL FINANCING AVAILABLE - SEE DOCUMENTS TAB**

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $87k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $977 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $87k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.8% vs local median 4.5% in El Mirage — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#112 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 132 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $601 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $76,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 48.11%
• DSCR: 3.14
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,317
• List price: $87,000
• Delta: -7.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16101 N El Mirage Rd #16	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-0%)	3mo	$150,000	$96	91
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #426	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	7mo	$115,000	$73	88
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #434	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,430 (-9%)	6mo	$120,000	$84	81
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	0mo	$64,000	$48	72
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #425	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,428 (-9%)	7mo	$97,750	$68	70
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #320	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-7%)	14mo	$135,900	$93	70
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #378	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,377 (-12%)	4mo	$112,000	$81	70
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #435	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-10%)	15mo	$105,000	$75	65
16101 N El Mirage Rd #361	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	12mo	$164,000	$92	60
16101 N El Mirage Rd #351	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+15%)	19mo	$120,000	$67	54
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #445	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,351 (-14%)	22mo	$92,000	$68	54
15632 N Greasewood St	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-14%)	21mo	$315,000	$233	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.74×
• Total profit: $42,437
• Equity at exit: $12,972

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $95,107
• Equity at exit: $7,522

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85335

• Home prices YoY: -13.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 132
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,997 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $977

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,037	-5% $1,007	+0% $977	+5% $947	+10% $917
Rent	-10% $819	-5% $898	+0% $977	+5% $1,056	+10% $1,135
Rate	-1.0pp $1,021	-0.5pp $999	base $977	+0.5pp $954	+1.0pp $931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	24d	1	0.20mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	24d	1	0.23mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	19d	1	0.25mi
12128 W Tara Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$2,145	$1.01	1d	1	0.25mi
12204 W Ocotillo Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	3.0	2117	$1,949	$0.92	24d	1	0.29mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,599	$1.22	24d	2	0.33mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	1052	$1,462	$1.39	2d	3	0.46mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,850	$1.46	2d	17	0.46mi
15204 N El Frio Ct El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,019	$1.02	3d	1	0.59mi
15109 N Verbena St El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$1,869	$1.14	44d	1	0.66mi
12817 W Cottonwood St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.0	1795	$1,300	$0.72	4d	1	0.75mi
14715 N 124th Ave El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$2,010	$1.31	44d	1	0.83mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1459	$2,199	$1.51	22d	1	0.84mi
14809 N El Frio Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,300	$1.35	24d	1	0.84mi
12438 W Hearn Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1308	$1,595	$1.22	24d	1	0.88mi
14815 N Tonya Cir El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1642	$2,040	$1.24	44d	1	0.89mi
12437 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	17d	1	0.93mi
11759 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	44d	1	0.98mi
12532 W Saint Moritz Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.0	1534	$1,875	$1.22	5d	1	1.02mi
12945 W Greenway Rd El Mirage, AZ	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,300	$1.23	24d	4	1.02mi
11402 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,800	$1.12	24d	1	1.05mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	5d	1	1.06mi
12574 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1058	$1,700	$1.61	5d	1	1.08mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	44d	1	1.09mi
15426 N Cactus Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	1.0	1376	$1,634	$1.19	44d	1	1.11mi
11554 W Mule Deer Ct Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1963	$1,816	$0.93	44d	1	1.12mi
16608 N 113th Dr Surprise, AZ	4.0	2.0	1571	$1,900	$1.21	44d	1	1.12mi
12537 W Redfield Rd El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	1.13mi
11755 W Thompson Ranch Rd El Mirage, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	936	$2,771	$2.96	1d	1	1.29mi
13029 W Lisbon Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	1949	$1,860	$0.95	2d	1	1.32mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	5d	1	1.33mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	24d	1	1.33mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 3 Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,822	$1.54	24d	1	1.34mi
17447 Avenue of the Arts Unit 2 Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,732	$1.61	24d	1	1.34mi
13007 W Mandalay Ln El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2178	$2,095	$0.96	24d	1	1.35mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,709	$1.12	15d	1	1.36mi
13227 W Port au Prince Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1522	$1,759	$1.16	24d	1	1.36mi
12830 W Via Camille El Mirage, AZ	4.0	2.5	2179	$2,145	$0.98	2d	1	1.39mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	13d	1	1.40mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,981	$1.67	2d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,000 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $87,000 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $87,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $87,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $87,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $87,000 Active 121 DOM
7. 2026-05-12
   price $87,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   **THE ULTIMATE COMMUNITY EXPERIENCE** Large pool, pickle-ball courts, pool room, exercise facility, multiple clubs, and regular activities... THIS is the community you want to be a part of! **Motivated Seller** **POTENTIAL FINANCING AVAILABLE - SEE DOCUMENTS TAB**

8. 2026-04-09
   price $89,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   **THE ULTIMATE COMMUNITY EXPERIENCE** Large pool, pickle-ball courts, pool room, exercise facility, multiple clubs, and regular activities... THIS is the community you want to be a part of! **Motivated Seller** **POTENTIAL FINANCING AVAILABLE - SEE DOCUMENTS TAB**

9. 2026-03-16
   price $92,000 276-char remark

   Show marketing remark (276 chars)

   **THE ULTIMATE COMMUNITY EXPERIENCE** Large pool, pickle-ball courts, pool room, exercise facility, multiple clubs, and regular activities... THIS is the community you want to be a part of! **Motivated Seller** **POTENTIAL FINANCING AVAILABLE - SEE DOCUMENTS TAB**

10. 2026-01-30
    listed $95,000 Active 276-char remark

    Show marketing remark (276 chars)

    **THE ULTIMATE COMMUNITY EXPERIENCE** Large pool, pickle-ball courts, pool room, exercise facility, multiple clubs, and regular activities... THIS is the community you want to be a part of! **Motivated Seller** **POTENTIAL FINANCING AVAILABLE - SEE DOCUMENTS TAB**

11. 2026-01-23
    historical
12. 2025-11-17
    price $94,000
13. 2025-10-16
    price $97,000
14. 2025-09-18
    price $99,900
15. 2025-08-09
    price $105,000
16. 2025-07-07
    listed $110,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,969
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable income: $10,990
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,637
• After-tax cash flow: $9,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathrooms, and improve the landscaping. It has average condition and could benefit from updates to increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen cabinets — existing cabinetry
• Minor bathroom fixtures — existing fixtures
• Minor landscaping — existing landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing kitchen for better resale and rental appeal
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizing bathroom for better resale and rental appeal
• Both landscaping improvements — enhancing curb appeal and increasing property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · existing cabinetry	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom fixtures · existing fixtures	Minor	$500–3,000
landscaping · existing landscaping	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$1,500–9,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing kitchen for better resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both replace bathroom fixtures — modernizing bathroom for better resale and rental appeal ↑
• Both landscaping improvements — enhancing curb appeal and increasing property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

Livability — El Mirage

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #15164

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: El Mirage, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 36,088
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 36,088
• Household income: $78,050
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 669.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 35% Two or more races 28% Black 6% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.81%
• Current HPI: 342.6503
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.08%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $87,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $92,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Listed $95,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Price Changed $94,000 ARMLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $97,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-18 Price Changed $99,900 ARMLS
• 2025-08-09 Price Changed $105,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listed $110,000 ARMLS