221 W Herndon Ave #178 · Fresno, CA 93650

$76,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1970 $67/sqft · 28% below area Est $74k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.7/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Remodeled, New Quarts counter in Kitchen New 5 burner drop in stove, new stainless under mount sink and faucet. New 14mm laminate flooring through out Just painted inside and out side. House type siding, includes washer and dryer central Air and Heat the enclosed room is not included in square footage.granite

Key facts

• New 5 burner stove
• New stainless sink
• New quarts counter

Tags

• NEW QUARTS COUNTER
• NEW 5 BURNER STOVE
• NEW STAINLESS SINK
• NEW LAMINATE FLOORING
• WASHER AND DRYER INCLUDED
• CENTRAL AIR AND HEAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $77k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $932 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $77k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.8% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($532 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$38k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $25k; list at $77k implies a 208% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,672 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.96%
• DSCR: 3.31
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $73,891
• List price: $76,900
• Delta: 4.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
221 W Herndon Ave #27	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$66,000	$57	94
221 W Herndon Ave #107	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	2mo	$95,000	$82	94
221 W Herndon Ave #164	0.00mi	2/1.8	1,152 (0%)	10mo	$85,000	$74	91
221 W Herndon Ave #166	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	9mo	$129,900	$113	88
221 W Herndon Ave #120	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$110,000	$92	86
221 W Herndon Ave #212	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (0%)	14mo	$135,000	$117	83
221 W Herndon Ave #3	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (0%)	15mo	$62,000	$54	83
221 W Herndon Ave #192	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	1mo	$112,000	$90	80
221 W Herndon #125	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,080 (-6%)	7mo	$59,000	$55	79
221 W Herndon Ave #130	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,275 (+11%)	2mo	$119,500	$94	76
221 W Herndon Ave #157	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	13mo	$109,900	$106	68
105 Herndon #60	0.19mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+12%)	0mo	$120,000	$93	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 65.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $101,287
• Equity at exit: $69,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.9%
• Equity multiple: 12.69×
• Total profit: $251,635
• Equity at exit: $149,400

Cash invested: $21,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93650

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,853 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$403
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $932

Break-even live

Break-even rent $673

Max offer price $76,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,225
• Closing costs: $2,307
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
91 W Sierra Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.5	1291	$2,500	$1.94	16d	1	0.53mi
6549 N Palm Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,760	$1.60	1d	2	0.76mi
6075 N Poplar Ave Apt E Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,600	$1.45	3d	1	0.89mi
6052 N College Ave Unit A Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	43d	1	0.90mi
135 E Stuart Ave Fresno, CA	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,995	$1.78	3d	1	0.93mi
336 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,700	$1.55	43d	1	0.95mi
373 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$1,855	$2.14	3d	1	0.96mi
445 W Nees Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	847	$1,820	$2.15	1d	10	1.03mi
1249 W Spruce Ave Unit 1249 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,975	$1.58	10d	1	1.05mi
7087 N Thorne Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0	785	$1,495	$1.90	1d	1	1.06mi
445 W Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,695	$1.99	3d	2	1.09mi
1271 W Spruce Ave Unit 1271 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,850	$1.48	10d	1	1.09mi
7166 N Fruit Ave #179 Fresno, CA	1.0	1.0	884	$1,625	$1.84	1d	1	1.13mi
7579 N Angus St Unit 101 Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1245	$1,825	$1.47	23d	1	1.15mi
6515 N Orchard St Fresno, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,300	$1.53	16d	1	1.18mi
7580 N Angus St Fresno, CA	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,900	$1.41	43d	1	1.18mi
7722 N Angus St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$1,575	$1.92	3d	1	1.31mi
5669 N Fresno St Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	916	$1,537	$1.68	1d	10	1.32mi
7511 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1078	$1,974	$1.83	1d	21	1.34mi
584 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,425	$1.58	43d	1	1.35mi
485 E Bullard Ave Fresno, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	907	$1,452	$1.60	3d	8	1.37mi
7625 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	739	$1,625	$2.20	2d	2	1.41mi
7675 N First St Fresno, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	989	$1,830	$1.85	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $76,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $76,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $76,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $76,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $76,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $76,900 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $76,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $76,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $76,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $76,900 Active 142 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $76,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $76,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $76,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $76,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-01-13
    listed $79,900 Active 310-char remark

    Show marketing remark (310 chars)

    Remodeled, New Quarts counter in Kitchen New 5 burner drop in stove, new stainless under mount sink and faucet. New 14mm laminate flooring through out Just painted inside and out side. House type siding, includes washer and dryer central Air and Heat the enclosed room is not included in square footage.granite

16. 2019-05-16
    price $25,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Welcome to your resort style living! Module Home is located in desirable Stonegate Estates Mobile Home Community. Home is older, but has been maintained. Owner has recently installed new kitchen counters. Home has roomy living room, with built in hutch in dining area. Owner had planted several citrus trees, and a lemon tree. Included in sale is refrigerator, washer/dryer at no warranty or value. Park has many amenities, such has pool, and separate spa, club house, Laundry facilities, and beauty shop. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and transportation. Let's make a deal!

17. 2019-05-15
    soldstatus $25,000 Sold 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Welcome to your resort style living! Module Home is located in desirable Stonegate Estates Mobile Home Community. Home is older, but has been maintained. Owner has recently installed new kitchen counters. Home has roomy living room, with built in hutch in dining area. Owner had planted several citrus trees, and a lemon tree. Included in sale is refrigerator, washer/dryer at no warranty or value. Park has many amenities, such has pool, and separate spa, club house, Laundry facilities, and beauty shop. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and transportation. Let's make a deal!

18. 2019-05-04
    status Backup 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Welcome to your resort style living! Module Home is located in desirable Stonegate Estates Mobile Home Community. Home is older, but has been maintained. Owner has recently installed new kitchen counters. Home has roomy living room, with built in hutch in dining area. Owner had planted several citrus trees, and a lemon tree. Included in sale is refrigerator, washer/dryer at no warranty or value. Park has many amenities, such has pool, and separate spa, club house, Laundry facilities, and beauty shop. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and transportation. Let's make a deal!

19. 2019-04-29
    price $30,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Welcome to your resort style living! Module Home is located in desirable Stonegate Estates Mobile Home Community. Home is older, but has been maintained. Owner has recently installed new kitchen counters. Home has roomy living room, with built in hutch in dining area. Owner had planted several citrus trees, and a lemon tree. Included in sale is refrigerator, washer/dryer at no warranty or value. Park has many amenities, such has pool, and separate spa, club house, Laundry facilities, and beauty shop. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and transportation. Let's make a deal!

20. 2019-04-16
    price $30,000 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Welcome to your resort style living! Module Home is located in desirable Stonegate Estates Mobile Home Community. Home is older, but has been maintained. Owner has recently installed new kitchen counters. Home has roomy living room, with built in hutch in dining area. Owner had planted several citrus trees, and a lemon tree. Included in sale is refrigerator, washer/dryer at no warranty or value. Park has many amenities, such has pool, and separate spa, club house, Laundry facilities, and beauty shop. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and transportation. Let's make a deal!

21. 2019-03-19
    listed $40,000 Active 594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (594 chars)

    Welcome to your resort style living! Module Home is located in desirable Stonegate Estates Mobile Home Community. Home is older, but has been maintained. Owner has recently installed new kitchen counters. Home has roomy living room, with built in hutch in dining area. Owner had planted several citrus trees, and a lemon tree. Included in sale is refrigerator, washer/dryer at no warranty or value. Park has many amenities, such has pool, and separate spa, club house, Laundry facilities, and beauty shop. Close proximity to shopping, restaurants, and transportation. Let's make a deal!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 48 unhealthy d/yr today · 50 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,234
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,308
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$384
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,779
• − Management: −$1,779
• − Depreciation: −$2,237
• Taxable income: $10,594
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,542
• After-tax cash flow: $8,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fresno Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614550
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $36,095
• Composite: 26.83/100
• National rank: #7111
• State rank: #327 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fresno

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #469
• US rank: #15907

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fresno, CA
• City population: 593,114
• Population (ZIP): 2,969

Population outlook (Fresno County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,042,971 people
• By 2030: 1,072,198 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 1,122,408 · +7.6%
• By 2050: 1,157,251 · +11.0%
• By 2075: 1,182,575 · +13.4%
• By 2100: 1,105,899 · +6.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 77% Two or more races 33% White 12% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 71%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 41% Other Asian/Pacific 4% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fresno

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.1pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+7.8 2016: D+3.9 2012: R+2.9 2008: D+2.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.16%
• Current HPI: 547.5597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+99.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-13 Listed $79,900 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-05-16 Price Changed $25,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-05-15 Sold (MLS) $25,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-05-04 Pending — FRESNOMLS
• 2019-04-29 Price Changed $30,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-04-16 Price Changed $30,000 FRESNOMLS
• 2019-03-19 Listed $40,000 FRESNOMLS