411 Cimarron Trl · Holly Lake Ranch, TX 75765

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,106 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 355 Days on market

Built 2007 0.28 ac lot $176/sqft · 7% below area Est $210k · 7% under $179/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW! $198,500 with perks! Sellers give buyer $7,000 credit toward HOA entry fee!!! Yes, YOU CAN LIVE IN HLR!!! You'll find a wonderful escape from city life in this perfectly sized home! This newly sided home has a transferrable warranty! Utility expenses are minimal. The large front porch welcomes you to your comfortable 2 bedroom, 2 bath peaceful place. After a terrifically fun day of activities in Holly Lake Ranch, enjoy a rest on the front porch and then finish a wonderful day at the Ranch by watching a movie on the large screen left by the sellers just for your movie nights! Enjoy the convenience of the eat-in kitchen and nearby office. Each bedroom has its own full bath, and the closets are generous. For your extras, there is a storage shed just steps from the home. This home is clean, spacious, and wonderfully maintained. This neighborhood offers a beautiful 18-hole golf course, a restaurant, pickleball and tennis courts, billiards, a fitness center, hiking, jogging and walking trails, disk golf, occasional market days, concerts, and gatherings! Many residents use their golf carts to travel around to visit neighbors and to enjoy the absolute beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Come join us!

Key facts

• Large front porch
• 18-hole golf course
• Storage shed

Tags

• TRANSFERRABLE WARRANTY
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STORAGE SHED
• 18-HOLE GOLF COURSE
• PICKLEBALL AND TENNIS COURTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-231 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $166k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $154k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Holly Lake Ranch — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Harmony ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #224 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 313 students, 62% FRL); Harmony J H (math 45% / reading 43%, grade D, #512 of 1,662 statewide, top 32%, 258 students, 46% FRL); Harmony H S (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 282 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 219 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Wood County in 2024 (29 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.1% local appreciation)).
• Wood County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 355 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 45% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $154,189 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 355 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,048
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -7.16%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
272 Alamosa Ln	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,116 (+1%)	16mo	$210,000	$188	79
167 Knollwood Ln	0.46mi	2/2.0	1,106 (0%)	14mo	$210,000	$190	67
132 Wild Rose Knl	0.27mi	2/2.0	986 (-11%)	3mo	$165,000	$167	66
154 Wild Rose Knl	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,150 (+4%)	16mo	$238,000	$207	66
115 Primrose Path	0.52mi	2/2.0	1,124 (+2%)	10mo	$182,000	$162	65
253 Pagosa Ln	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,180 (+7%)	21mo	$229,900	$195	64
2332 Holly Trl E	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	1mo	$195,000	$156	64
142 Primrose Cv	0.50mi	2/2.0	986 (-11%)	1mo	$134,000	$136	58
189 Salida Bnd	0.25mi	2/2.0	986 (-11%)	24mo	$207,900	$211	51
138 Wildwood Trl	0.39mi	2/2.0	1,228 (+11%)	18mo	$199,900	$163	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $9,918
• Equity at exit: $88,741

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $54,924
• Equity at exit: $137,592

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75765

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,658 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,098/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$179
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $-231

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,951

Max offer price $154,189

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-121	-5% $-176	+0% $-231	+5% $-286	+10% $-341
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-297	+0% $-231	+5% $-166	+10% $-100
Rate	-1.0pp $-133	-0.5pp $-181	base $-231	+0.5pp $-282	+1.0pp $-333

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $179 · $2,148/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $195,000 Active 355 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 354 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 353 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 351 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 350 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 349 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 348 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 346 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $195,000 Active 345 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $179,000 Active 342 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 341 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $179,000 Active 340 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $179,000 Active 339 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,000 Active 336 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,000 Active 335 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,000 Active 334 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,000 Active 333 DOM
18. 2026-03-13
    price $198,500 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    WOW! $198,500 with perks! Sellers give buyer $7,000 credit toward HOA entry fee!!! Yes, YOU CAN LIVE IN HLR!!! You'll find a wonderful escape from city life in this perfectly sized home! This newly sided home has a transferrable warranty! Utility expenses are minimal. The large front porch welcomes you to your comfortable 2 bedroom, 2 bath peaceful place. After a terrifically fun day of activities in Holly Lake Ranch, enjoy a rest on the front porch and then finish a wonderful day at the Ranch by watching a movie on the large screen left by the sellers just for your movie nights! Enjoy the convenience of the eat-in kitchen and nearby office. Each bedroom has its own full bath, and the closets are generous. For your extras, there is a storage shed just steps from the home. This home is clean, spacious, and wonderfully maintained. This neighborhood offers a beautiful 18-hole golf course, a restaurant, pickleball and tennis courts, billiards, a fitness center, hiking, jogging and walking trails, disk golf, occasional market days, concerts, and gatherings! Many residents use their golf carts to travel around to visit neighbors and to enjoy the absolute beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Come join us!

19. 2025-11-20
    price $220,000 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    WOW! $198,500 with perks! Sellers give buyer $7,000 credit toward HOA entry fee!!! Yes, YOU CAN LIVE IN HLR!!! You'll find a wonderful escape from city life in this perfectly sized home! This newly sided home has a transferrable warranty! Utility expenses are minimal. The large front porch welcomes you to your comfortable 2 bedroom, 2 bath peaceful place. After a terrifically fun day of activities in Holly Lake Ranch, enjoy a rest on the front porch and then finish a wonderful day at the Ranch by watching a movie on the large screen left by the sellers just for your movie nights! Enjoy the convenience of the eat-in kitchen and nearby office. Each bedroom has its own full bath, and the closets are generous. For your extras, there is a storage shed just steps from the home. This home is clean, spacious, and wonderfully maintained. This neighborhood offers a beautiful 18-hole golf course, a restaurant, pickleball and tennis courts, billiards, a fitness center, hiking, jogging and walking trails, disk golf, occasional market days, concerts, and gatherings! Many residents use their golf carts to travel around to visit neighbors and to enjoy the absolute beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Come join us!

20. 2025-09-28
    price $233,000 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    WOW! $198,500 with perks! Sellers give buyer $7,000 credit toward HOA entry fee!!! Yes, YOU CAN LIVE IN HLR!!! You'll find a wonderful escape from city life in this perfectly sized home! This newly sided home has a transferrable warranty! Utility expenses are minimal. The large front porch welcomes you to your comfortable 2 bedroom, 2 bath peaceful place. After a terrifically fun day of activities in Holly Lake Ranch, enjoy a rest on the front porch and then finish a wonderful day at the Ranch by watching a movie on the large screen left by the sellers just for your movie nights! Enjoy the convenience of the eat-in kitchen and nearby office. Each bedroom has its own full bath, and the closets are generous. For your extras, there is a storage shed just steps from the home. This home is clean, spacious, and wonderfully maintained. This neighborhood offers a beautiful 18-hole golf course, a restaurant, pickleball and tennis courts, billiards, a fitness center, hiking, jogging and walking trails, disk golf, occasional market days, concerts, and gatherings! Many residents use their golf carts to travel around to visit neighbors and to enjoy the absolute beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Come join us!

21. 2025-07-02
    listed $235,000 Active 1208-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1208 chars)

    WOW! $198,500 with perks! Sellers give buyer $7,000 credit toward HOA entry fee!!! Yes, YOU CAN LIVE IN HLR!!! You'll find a wonderful escape from city life in this perfectly sized home! This newly sided home has a transferrable warranty! Utility expenses are minimal. The large front porch welcomes you to your comfortable 2 bedroom, 2 bath peaceful place. After a terrifically fun day of activities in Holly Lake Ranch, enjoy a rest on the front porch and then finish a wonderful day at the Ranch by watching a movie on the large screen left by the sellers just for your movie nights! Enjoy the convenience of the eat-in kitchen and nearby office. Each bedroom has its own full bath, and the closets are generous. For your extras, there is a storage shed just steps from the home. This home is clean, spacious, and wonderfully maintained. This neighborhood offers a beautiful 18-hole golf course, a restaurant, pickleball and tennis courts, billiards, a fitness center, hiking, jogging and walking trails, disk golf, occasional market days, concerts, and gatherings! Many residents use their golf carts to travel around to visit neighbors and to enjoy the absolute beauty of Holly Lake Ranch. Come join us!

22. 2025-07-01
    historical
23. 2025-06-28
    price $235,000
24. 2025-06-18
    listed $245,500 Active
25. 2022-06-21
    soldstatus
26. 2022-06-20
    soldstatus
27. 2022-05-11
    listed $185,000
28. 2007-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,098 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$470/yr (+$39/mo · 15.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 45% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,098
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,592
• − Management: −$1,592
• − HOA: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$6,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,464
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,308/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harmony ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822560
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,303
• Composite: 40.47/100
• National rank: #3721
• State rank: #224 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holly Lake Ranch

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holly Lake Ranch, TX
• Population (ZIP): 8,195

Population outlook (Wood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,480 people
• By 2030: 47,796 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 50,142 · +7.9%
• By 2050: 52,122 · +12.1%
• By 2075: 57,033 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 56,418 · +21.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Wood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.2pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+70.0 2012: R+64.2 2008: R+54.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Current HPI: 236.7688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+7.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $198,500 GTAR
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $220,000 GTAR
• 2025-09-28 Price Changed $233,000 GTAR
• 2025-07-02 Listed $235,000 GTAR
• 2025-07-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $235,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Listed $245,500 NTREIS
• 2022-06-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-20 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2022-05-11 Listed $185,000 GTAR
• 2007-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,098 · +8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.