4 Pine Tree Ct · East Quogue, NY 11942

$1,529,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,187 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 1997 0.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Dated but solid classic ranch in the coveted Westhampton Beach School District on a very private Cul de Sac. Large full finished basement, handicapped entrance, large pull down attic over garage. In ground vinyl pool on shy half acre. Home has irrigation and outside shower., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac
• Lush landscaping
• Brand new pool

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• PRIVATE BACKYARD OASIS
• BRAND NEW POOL
• EXPANSIVE ENTERTAINING DECK
• LUSH LANDSCAPING
• VERSATILE LOWER LEVEL

🏗️ New construction. The $1,529,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $792,916.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $1.53M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7k ($85k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($15k rent vs $1.53M).
• Recommended offer: $1.35M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 10.6% in East Quogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#943 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Quogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 55% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #342 of 755 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Quogue School (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #745 of 2,108 statewide, top 39%, 355 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 31% FRL vs 15% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 62% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $24k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $222k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.35M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $775k; list at $1.53M implies a 97% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,345,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.45%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 4.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $792,916
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Shinnecock Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,086 (-8%)	2mo	$772,500	$711	68
21 Shinnecock Ave	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+1%)	22mo	$800,000	$667	61
77 Bellows Ter	0.31mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,148 (-3%)	21mo	$680,000	$592	56
13 Glenmore Dr	0.50mi	2/2.0	1,214 (+2%)	20mo	$810,000	$667	53
7 Oakwood Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+10%)	14mo	$795,000	$612	48
3 Chestnut Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+12%)	16mo	$869,000	$657	48
16 Middle Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,130 (-5%)	11mo	$862,000	$763	45
21 Eisenhower Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+0%)	16mo	$800,000	$672	42
123 W Tiana Rd	0.53mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,100 (-7%)	20mo	$765,000	$695	40
17 Hubbard Ln	0.67mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,048 (-12%)	9mo	$700,000	$668	37
13 Head Of Cove Rd	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,032 (-13%)	11mo	$749,000	$726	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.46×
• Total profit: $324,530
• Equity at exit: $118,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $865,738
• Equity at exit: $68,557

Cash invested: $222,016 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11942

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $15,326 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,158
• Tax from tax record: −$505 /mo · $6,060/yr
• Insurance: −$330
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,218
• Net cashflow: $7,114

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,321

Max offer price $792,916

Occupancy floor 49%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $198,229
• Closing costs: $23,787
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
138 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.0	1040	$16,000	$15.38	10d	1	0.43mi
168 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1004	$4,000	$3.98	43d	1	0.58mi
2 Fairview Rd Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1440	$17,500	$12.15	17d	1	0.63mi
104 W Tiana Rd Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	1.5	900	$15,000	$16.67	43d	1	0.75mi
4 E End Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	1.0	976	$4,500	$4.61	43d	1	0.87mi
73 W Tiana Rd Unit 11 Hampton Bays, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$11,000	$11.00	43d	1	0.94mi
30 Vail Ave East Quogue, NY	3.0	2.0	1260	$38,500	$30.56	24d	1	1.40mi
51 Ocean Ave Hampton Bays, NY	3.0	2.0	1200	$5,000	$4.17	43d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   status Active
3. 2026-03-24
   status Pending
4. 2025-11-07
   listed $1,529,000 Active
5. 2025-10-10
   price $1,529,000
6. 2025-07-15
   price $1,549,000
7. 2025-05-12
   listed $1,649,000 Active
8. 2024-09-06
   soldstatus $775,000
9. 2024-07-09
   soldstatus $775,000 Closed 325-char remark

   Show marketing remark (325 chars)

   Dated but solid classic ranch in the coveted Westhampton Beach School District on a very private Cul de Sac. Large full finished basement, handicapped entrance, large pull down attic over garage. In ground vinyl pool on shy half acre. Home has irrigation and outside shower., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

10. 2024-03-29
    status Pending 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Dated but solid classic ranch in the coveted Westhampton Beach School District on a very private Cul de Sac. Large full finished basement, handicapped entrance, large pull down attic over garage. In ground vinyl pool on shy half acre. Home has irrigation and outside shower., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

11. 2024-02-26
    listed $775,000 Active 325-char remark

    Show marketing remark (325 chars)

    Dated but solid classic ranch in the coveted Westhampton Beach School District on a very private Cul de Sac. Large full finished basement, handicapped entrance, large pull down attic over garage. In ground vinyl pool on shy half acre. Home has irrigation and outside shower., Additional information: Interior Features:Lr/Dr

12. 2020-09-28
    historical
13. 2020-09-28
    historical
14. 2020-05-07
    price $625,000
15. 2020-05-04
    listed $575,000 Active
16. 2020-05-04
    listed $625,000
17. 2006-10-04
    soldstatus $535,000
18. 1987-12-09
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,060 · $505/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $15,950 · $1,329/mo
• Expected delta: +$9,890/yr (+$824/mo · 163.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $183,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$44,416
• − Property taxes: −$6,060
• − Insurance: −$3,965
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$14,713
• − Management: −$14,713
• − Depreciation: −$23,067
• Taxable income: $76,977
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18,474
• After-tax cash flow: $66,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Quogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609900
• Math proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $81,457
• Composite: 49.79/100
• National rank: #4207
• State rank: #342 of 755 in NY

Livability — East Quogue

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #943
• US rank: #18348

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Quogue, NY
• City population: 5,871
• Population (ZIP): 5,871

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 16% Asian 2% Two or more races 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.33%
• Current HPI: 435.8017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+726.5% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-02 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-07 Listed $1,529,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $1,529,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-15 Price Changed $1,549,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Listed $1,649,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $775,000 Public Records
• 2024-07-09 Sold (MLS) $775,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-29 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Listed $775,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-09-28 Listing Removed — Cincy MLS
• 2020-09-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-07 Price Changed $625,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-05-04 Listed $625,000 Cincy MLS
• 2020-05-04 Listed $575,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $535,000 Public Records
• 1987-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $6,060 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.